Thursday night football takes on added intrigue as the Buffalo Bills travel to NRG Stadium to face the Houston Texans in a crucial AFC matchup. What was supposed to be a premier quarterback duel between Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud has transformed into something entirely different, with Stroud officially ruled out due to a lingering concussion.
The Bills enter this contest with their high-octane offense humming, averaging 29.2 points per game behind Allen's dynamic playmaking ability. Allen brings an unblemished 8-0 record in Thursday night games to Houston, where he'll face a Texans defense that's been opportunistic all season with a +6 turnover differential. Meanwhile, Houston must lean on backup quarterback Davis Mills to keep pace with Buffalo's explosive attack.
This game carries significant playoff implications for both teams. The Bills are chasing their fifth straight AFC East title and need statement wins to secure home-field advantage, while the Texans are fighting to maintain their grip on the AFC South. With Buffalo favored by six points, the question becomes whether Houston's defense can create enough chaos to keep this game competitive without their franchise quarterback.
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Bills vs Texans Odds, Props, and Picks for Thursday Night
Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025
Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. EST
Venue: NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Weather: Indoor conditions with NRG Stadium's retractable roof ensuring no weather factors
The betting market has responded decisively to Stroud's absence, establishing Buffalo as clear road favorites in this AFC showdown.
• Moneyline: Buffalo Bills (-286) | Houston Texans (+230)
• Spread: Buffalo Bills -6 (-110) | Houston Texans +6 (-110)
• Total (Over/Under): 43.5 (Over -115 | Under -105)
Betting odds courtesy of MGM.
The Bills are positioned as heavy -286 moneyline favorites, reflecting the market's belief that Mills simply can't match Allen's production. The six-point spread suggests oddsmakers expect Buffalo to win by at least a touchdown, while the modest 43.5-point total indicates concerns about Houston's offensive output without their star quarterback.
Statistical Breakdown: Bills' Offensive Power vs Texans' Defensive Opportunism
The numbers tell a compelling story of contrasting team identities. Buffalo's offense operates like a finely-tuned machine, producing 29.2 points and 387.4 yards per game compared to Houston's more modest 21.8 points and 329.6 yards per contest. The gap becomes even more pronounced in crucial situations, where the Bills excel and the Texans struggle.
Buffalo's efficiency in money situations is elite-level. They convert a remarkable 44.9% of third downs and finish an outstanding 66.7% of red zone trips with touchdowns. These numbers paint the picture of an offense that capitalizes when opportunities arise. Houston's offense tells a different story, managing just 36.0% on third downs and converting only 43.3% of red zone chances into touchdowns.
The Texans' primary weapon remains their opportunistic defense, which has generated 15 takeaways and boasts that impressive +6 turnover differential. Both teams generate consistent pass rush pressure – Buffalo with 26 sacks and Houston with 25 – but the Texans' ability to create game-changing turnovers represents their best path to victory. Allen threw three touchdown passes in Buffalo's offensive explosion last week vs. Tampa Bay, while the Texans are coming off an ugly 16-13 win in Tennessee.
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Bills vs Texans: Expert Analysis and Predictions
This matchup hinges on a fundamental question: Can Houston's ball-hawking defense generate enough chaos to overcome the massive quarterback advantage Buffalo now enjoys? While the Texans have mastered the art of creating turnovers, Mills simply doesn't possess Allen's ability to consistently move the chains and finish drives.
The critical mismatch lies in red zone execution, where Buffalo's clinical efficiency meets Houston's ongoing struggles. The Bills have turned two-thirds of their red zone opportunities into touchdowns, a devastating contrast to the Texans' inconsistent 43.3% conversion rate. Against a backup quarterback, Buffalo should create multiple scoring opportunities and capitalize on most of them.
Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -6 (-110)
The numbers support Buffalo covering this spread comfortably. Their 29.2 points per game average suggests they'll find the end zone multiple times, while Houston's offensive limitations become magnified without Stroud's playmaking ability. The Bills' 66.7% red zone touchdown rate against Houston's defensive vulnerabilities creates a recipe for Buffalo to pull away in the second half.
Best Prop: Josh Allen Over 0.5 Interceptions (-120)
Even in a likely Buffalo victory, Allen's aggressive style should produce at least one turnover against Houston's opportunistic secondary. The Texans have collected 10 interceptions this season and built their defensive identity around creating short fields. Allen's gunslinger mentality, combined with Houston's desperation to generate big plays, makes this prop attractive.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills 28, Houston Texans 14