A classic AFC East rivalry gets a compelling new twist in this Week 15 showdown as the Buffalo Bills travel to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots. The primary storyline is undeniable: former Bills superstar wide receiver Stefon Diggs will face his old team for the second time as a Patriot, adding a layer of personal drama to an already heated divisional contest.
Bills vs Patriots Betting Picks
This matchup promises offensive firepower. The Bills, led by quarterback Josh Allen, field a high-scoring offense that averages 28.8 points and 383.7 yards per game. New England isn't far behind, putting up 26.5 points per contest, fueled by their own blend of veteran talent and young playmakers like rookie quarterback Drake Maye.
With both teams in the thick of the AFC playoff picture, this late-season divisional game carries significant weight for postseason positioning.
New users can claim the linked BetMGM bonus code to win $150 in bonus bets or score a $1,500 First Bet Offer, depending on your state.
Bills vs Patriots Betting Information
Date: December 14, 2025
Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Venue: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Surface: Artificial Turf
This AFC East clash is expected to be a nail-biter, with oddsmakers setting a very tight line for the contest:
- Moneyline: Bills (-120) | Patriots (+100)
- Spread: Bills -1.5 (-102) | Patriots +1.5 (-118)
- Total (Over/Under): 49.5 (-110 / -110)
Betting odds courtesy DraftKings.
The visiting Bills enter Gillette Stadium as slight road favorites, reflected by their -120 moneyline and a slim 1.5-point spread. New England is positioned as narrow home underdogs, offering even money for an outright win. The game's total is set at a high 49.5 points, signaling expectations for a high-scoring affair consistent with the offensive capabilities of both squads.
How the Bills and Patriots Match Up Statistically
As the high point total suggests, this matchup features two of the AFC's more productive offenses. Buffalo holds a slight advantage, averaging 28.8 points and 383.7 total yards per game, just ahead of New England's 26.5 points and 362.6 yards. However, they achieve their production through different means. Buffalo features a more balanced attack, leaning on a powerful ground game that has amassed 2,051 rushing yards, while the Patriots rely more heavily on their aerial assault, which has produced 3,246 passing yards.
The game could be decided by situational execution, where a significant mismatch appears. The Bills have been one of the league's most effective teams in the red zone, converting an exceptional 61.7% of their trips into touchdowns. New England has been far less efficient, finding the end zone on just 51.1% of their red zone opportunities. This discrepancy could be a deciding factor in a close game.
On third downs, the teams are more evenly matched, with Buffalo converting at a 45% clip compared to 42.7% for the Patriots. Defensively, both teams generate similar pressure, with the Bills recording 28 sacks to New England's 27. Buffalo's defense has shown a greater knack for takeaways, creating 17 turnovers compared to the Patriots' 13.
Both quarterbacks enter this contest playing well. Josh Allen is coming off a four-touchdown performance, while rookie Drake Maye threw two touchdowns without an interception in his last game, continuing his impressive development.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction and Best Bets
This AFC East rivalry showdown projects to be a one-score game, as reflected by the tight 1.5-point spread. While the emotional "revenge game" narrative for Stefon Diggs adds intrigue, the statistical fundamentals point toward the visiting favorites.
The most glaring disparity lies in situational offense, where games between evenly matched teams are often decided. Buffalo is simply on another level when it comes to finishing drives. The Bills have been ruthlessly efficient, converting an outstanding 61.7% of their red zone trips into touchdowns. New England, by contrast, has struggled in that critical area of the field, scoring a touchdown on only 51.1% of their opportunities. In a game with a high total of 49.5 points, that 10.6% efficiency gap is massive.
Buffalo's ability to turn scoring chances into six points instead of three gives them the decisive edge needed to win and cover the small spread on the road.
Sign-up to bet on Patriots vs Bills with the DraftKings promo code and win $200 in bonus bets.
Best Pick: Bills -1.5 (-102)
Building on the theme of Buffalo's red zone dominance, Josh Allen presents excellent value as an anytime touchdown scorer. Allen is the engine of the Bills' offense and a premier goal-line threat with both his legs and arm. Given that Buffalo scores touchdowns at such a high rate when they get close, backing their quarterback to find the end zone himself makes sense. He's coming off a four-touchdown performance and is central to everything the Bills do inside the 20-yard line.
Best Player Prop: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110)