Early odds for Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs show that a No. 1 postseason seed is a home underdog.
When you run into Josh Allen, that's not a surprising perception.
Allen's Buffalo Bills visit the top-seeded Denver Broncos, who are coming off their bye, in the first game of the weekend.
Denver's elite defense will present one of the toughest matchups of the year for the perennial NFL MVP candidate.
Keep scrolling for NFL betting predictions and the best odds to wager for Bills vs. Broncos.
Bills vs. Broncos best bet
Over 46 (-110) • BetMGM Sportsbook
Read more about the Bills-Broncos total betting below and use our BetMGM promo code to sign up and bet.
Bills vs. Broncos betting odds
For this list, I'm using FanDuel Sportsbook odds for Bills vs. Broncos, current as of Tuesday at 11 p.m. ET.
I will not necessarily use these odds for finding the best bets on this NFC Divisional Round game. (Learn why bettors should use multiple sportsbook apps.)
- Moneyline: Bills (-108) • Broncos (-108)
- Spread (ATS): Bills -1.5 (+100) • Broncos +1.5 (-122)
- Total: Over 46.5 (-108) • Under 46.5 (-112)
- Implied Point Totals Score: Bills 24, Broncos 22.5
🏆 MORE: Super Bowl 60 odds and best bets
Bills vs. Broncos predictions and betting angles
More importantly than analyzing betting trends, which are often deployed in betting punditry universally without context, bettors should consider what angles can affect the event action and follow a betting trail from that.
Here's how Broncos-Bills bettors should break this game down.
Will homefield advantage help Bo Nix erase last year's playoff loss to the Bills?
The biggest question of this game is how the sophomore will fare in a rematch with Josh Allen; the Bills throttled the visiting Broncos 31-7 in last year's Wild Card round.
Now, Nix hosts Allen after Denver's bye week. The Oregon alum has thrived at home in his young career.
Home-road splits per Pro Football Reference:
| Value | G | W | L | T | Cmp | Att | Inc | Cmp% | Yds | TD | Int | Rate | Sk | Yds | Y/A | AY/A |
| Home | 17 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 383 | 592 | 209 | 64.7 | 4272 | 34 | 15 | 94.7 | 22 | 159 | 7.22 | 7.22 |
| Road | 17 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 381 | 587 | 206 | 64.91 | 3434 | 20 | 8 | 86.2 | 24 | 158 | 5.85 | 5.92 |
Nix's interceptions column in games at Mile High gives pause, but he's been more willing to challenge downfield in the Rocky Mountains.
This aggressiveness will help him be more than just a game manager to keep the ball out of Allen's hands.
Why Denver's record in close games could haunt them
The Broncos went 11-2 in games that ended in a one-score margin this year.
Though credit in theory can go to Sean Payton and the coaching staff, some luck has played in their favor to be that successful in 13 such outings.
Buffalo is 6-3 in this split for the 2025-26 season, including its 27-24 Round 1 win over the Jaguars, so they're no stranger to tight games.
Allen's beastly Tush Push to set up the game-winning touchdown last week exemplified how he could take the game in his own hands with down-the-stretch clock management.
Can Josh Allen continue leading Bills' march to SBLX by himself?
Well, did you see that run?!
"You're not touching my baby!" - Tony Romo on the crazy Josh Allen tush push run to the goal line. 🏈🎙️ #NFL #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/3crf0tReOw
— Awful Announcing (@awfulannouncing) January 11, 2026
Maybe if the top-notch Bills run blocking can spring James Cook free more often, Allen could keep things more diverse in the offense.
However, working with maybe TE Dalton Kincaid as your alpha wideout against one of the league's best secondaries, No. 17 will likely just taken what's given to him, even if it's more scrambles than usual.
🏅 MORE: See Josh Allen's Super Bowl 60 MVP odds
How will the second level of the Bills defense hold up?
The Broncos have a true alpha wideout in Courtland Sutton and a diverse group of pass-catchers below him... Plus one of the top offensive lines in the league.
Not to mention that breakout rookie running back RJ Harvey has been one of the hottest carriers in the league in the past month-plus.
A possible return of DI Ed Oliver (knee) could improve on the Bills' sieve-like run defense, but even if he resurfaces, Denver's run-blocking ranks among the league's best.
If Harvey and receivers can get past the Broncos' defensive line consistently, it could get ugly.
🎫 MORE: Early NFL Divisional Round lines to bet
Bills vs. Broncos bet on the Over/Under total
Over 46 (-110) • BetMGM Sportsbook
We'll sit with the possibility of a push instead of the hook.
Nix should come out of the bye week strong, and weather doesn't appear to be a factor, according to early-week forecasts. Sure, it'll be below 40 degrees, but it's Colorado in January, and both teams can deal with this atmosphere.
The Under is the favored outcome at most other outlets, and if we took a 46.5, we could get better juice. However, given the borderline we're straddling in confidence in these offenses, we'll try to break even with the lowest possible total.
Bills vs. Broncos spread bet (ATS)
Broncos -1 (-105) • bet365 Sportsbook
As trades bring this and the moneyline to a near coin flip bet, pick as close to positive juice for a Broncos win where you can.
This isn't an ideal bet to use for your bet365 promo code, but this can be your second or third wager.
Bills vs. Broncos moneyline bet to win
PASS.
I did not publish when I landed the Broncos moneyline at (+106) on FanDuel, but the market has swung drastically more toward a coin-flip game with dual (-108) and (-110) juices.
I'd wait until someone dips into plus-money territory, even if you pick the Bills after landing the Broncos spread. Find the positive paths to money any way you can while uncertainty creeps in.
Bills vs. Broncos betting trends data
Again, these should not be considered gospel but can help inform betting decisions on the fringes.
- ATS record 2025: Bills 9-9 • Broncos 7-9-1
- Over/Under record 2025: Bills 9-8-1 • Broncos 7-10
📋 MORE: How sportsbooks set betting lines
Best sportsbook apps for Bills vs. Broncos bets that may be available in your area
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into:
- DraftKings
- FanDuel
- Fanatics
- BetMGM
- bet365
- Caesars
- theScore Bet
- Hard Rock Bet
- Betr
- BetRivers
🆓 MORE: How to use bonus bets when signing up for a sportsbook