Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 16

As the NFL season charges into Week 16, elite playmakers across the league are hitting their stride at the perfect time for bettors seeking value in player props. This week's slate features compelling matchups that present clear pathways to profits, with several marquee contests showcasing the league's most dynamic offensive weapons.

Best NFL Prop Bets for Week 16

The spotlight shines brightest on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers as they travel to face Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys in what projects as a high-scoring affair. Meanwhile, Jared Goff orchestrates the explosive Detroit Lions offense, featuring target monster Amon-Ra St. Brown and versatile weapon Jahmyr Gibbs, as they host Aaron Rodgers and the Pittsburgh Steelers in a potential offensive showcase at Ford Field.

Additional intrigue comes from the quarterback duel between Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars visiting Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos in the thin air of Mile High, plus a critical AFC battle featuring Drake Maye's New England Patriots traveling to face Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.

The defensive landscapes present stark contrasts for offensive stars this week. Signal-callers like Herbert and Rodgers face pass defenses that have shown vulnerability throughout the season, creating prime spots for aerial attacks. Conversely, quarterbacks such as Lawrence and Maye must navigate formidable defensive units that have stifled opposing offenses consistently. Running backs face equally divergent paths – workhorses like Derrick Henry will grind against stingy run defenses, while others may exploit favorable rushing matchups.

With playoff positioning intensifying and players making their final regular-season push, understanding these situational dynamics becomes crucial. The following analysis identifies the most profitable player prop bet for every team, providing data-driven insights for a winning Week 16.

New users can sign up with the BetMGM bonus code  to wager on NFL action and win $150 in bonus bets or get a $1,500 First Bet Offer, depending on their location.

Week 16 NFL Player Props: Best Betting Opportunities by Team

Our comprehensive breakdown reveals specific player props that offer the strongest value based on individual matchups, offensive schemes, and target distribution. These selections target players positioned for success within their team's game plan and favorable situational spots.

Premium Selections of the Week

Three props emerge as our highest-confidence plays based on volume projections, matchup advantages, and situational factors.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) - Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
The Goff-to-St. Brown connection anchors the Lions' aerial attack, with the "Sun God" commanding massive target share in Detroit's high-octane offense. Playing at Ford Field in a contest projected for significant scoring, St. Brown enters as the clear alpha receiver for a quarterback whose passing yardage line sits at 271.5 yards. The market has already adjusted this line upward from its 76.5-yard opener, signaling strong belief in a productive outing.

Derrick Henry (BAL) - Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Baltimore's ground-and-pound identity centers on Henry's bruising running style, making this a textbook spot for the veteran workhorse. His rushing attempts line of 16.5 virtually guarantees the volume needed to surpass this yardage total. At M&T Bank Stadium, expect the Ravens to lean heavily on their bell-cow back to control tempo and wear down New England's defense through physical football.

DK Metcalf (PIT) - Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Facing Detroit's high-powered offense, the Steelers will likely need to match points through the air, creating prime opportunities for Metcalf's big-play ability. His combination of size and speed creates consistent mismatches, evidenced by the line's movement from 56.5 yards. With his longest reception prop set at 25.5 yards, Metcalf possesses the explosiveness to clear significant yardage on limited touches.

Claim the linked DraftKings promo code to sign up and bet $5 to get $200 in bonus bets (if you win).

New England Patriots @ Baltimore Ravens

New England Patriots: TreVeyon Henderson Over 55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Henderson's role as New England's primary ground threat positions him for steady volume against Baltimore's physical defense. The Patriots will likely emphasize ball control and clock management to limit Lamar Jackson's possessions, funneling carries to Henderson. This conservative yardage line becomes achievable through consistent workload, even if individual carries come in smaller chunks against a stout front seven.

Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
This represents the quintessential Henry spot – a home game where Baltimore can impose its physical will through power running. The Ravens' offensive identity revolves around establishing dominance at the line of scrimmage, with Henry serving as the primary weapon. His 16.5 rushing attempts prop virtually guarantees the touches needed, while his combination of power and breakaway speed creates upside for explosive gains.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys

Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-161)
AT&T Stadium's controlled environment sets the stage for aerial fireworks, with Herbert needing to match Dallas's potent offensive attack. The Cowboys' ability to score quickly may force Los Angeles into pass-heavy game scripts, creating red zone opportunities for Herbert's elite arm talent. His touchdown efficiency and the game's projected pace make two passing scores a conservative target.

Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Lamb's status as Prescott's primary target becomes magnified in a potential shootout with the Chargers. His route versatility allows him to threaten all three levels of the field, while his connection with Prescott has remained consistent throughout the season. The game environment favors aggressive passing attacks, positioning Lamb for heavy target volume.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions

Pittsburgh Steelers: DK Metcalf Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Ford Field's dome environment and the Lions' explosive offensive capabilities create urgency for Pittsburgh to keep pace through the air. Metcalf's physical profile presents constant mismatch potential against Detroit's secondary, while his big-play ability offers paths to exceed this yardage total on limited receptions. Aaron Rodgers' arm strength complements Metcalf's downfield prowess perfectly.

Detroit Lions: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 84.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Our top weekly selection capitalizes on St. Brown's elite target share within Detroit's pass-heavy attack. The Lions' home-field advantage at Ford Field, combined with expected high-scoring game flow, creates optimal conditions for the Goff-St. Brown partnership to flourish. His role as the clear alpha receiver in a 271.5-yard passing environment makes this line highly achievable.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos

Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-111)
Lawrence's dual-threat ability becomes crucial when facing Denver's defensive pressure at altitude. His mobility provides escape valves against pass rush and opportunities for designed quarterback runs. This modest rushing line can be surpassed through just a couple of scrambles or bootleg situations, making it an excellent value proposition.

Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Sutton's role as Bo Nix's primary aerial weapon positions him for consistent target volume at Empower Field. His size and physicality create advantages in contested situations, while his chemistry with Nix has developed throughout the season. Playing at home against Jacksonville's secondary, Sutton should command the looks necessary to eclipse this conservative yardage mark.