Week 15 delivers a compelling slate of divisional battles that showcase the NFL's elite talent in high-stakes environments. The Baltimore Ravens travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals in a pivotal AFC North showdown, while the Los Angeles Chargers visit the Kansas City Chiefs in what promises to be an explosive AFC West clash. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills head to New England to take on the Patriots in a classic divisional rivalry.
Best NFL Player Props for Week 15
These matchups present fascinating contrasts in offensive philosophies and defensive schemes. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' ground-and-pound attack will test a Bengals run defense that has struggled with gap discipline. Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase counter with their vertical passing game against a Baltimore secondary that has shown occasional lapses in coverage. The Chiefs-Chargers battle pits Patrick Mahomes against one of the league's most improved pass defenses, while Justin Herbert must navigate Kansas City's aggressive defensive front.
The running game dynamics are equally intriguing. Derrick Henry appears positioned for a dominant performance against Cincinnati's porous run defense, while James Cook faces the challenging task of finding rushing lanes against New England's stout defensive front. Star receivers like Ja'Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs will look to exploit favorable coverage matchups in their respective contests.
Understanding these tactical battles is crucial for identifying profitable prop betting opportunities. Each game presents unique situational advantages that create exploitable edges for sharp bettors willing to dig deeper into the matchup data.
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Top NFL Player Props and Betting Picks for Week 15
We've analyzed every matchup on this week's slate to identify the strongest prop betting opportunities for each team. These selections focus on players positioned to exceed or fall short of their posted lines based on opponent weaknesses and game flow projections.
| Team | Opponent | Player | Best Prop Bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | @ CIN | Derrick Henry | Rushing Yards Over 87.5 (-114) |
| CIN | vs BAL | Ja'Marr Chase | Receiving Yards Over 91.5 (-112) |
| BUF | @ NE | James Cook | Rushing Yards Under 79.5 (-112) |
| NE | vs BUF | Stefon Diggs | Receiving Yards Over 52.5 (-111) |
| LAC | @ KC | Justin Herbert | Rushing Yards Over 24.5 (-107) |
| KC | vs LAC | Patrick Mahomes | Interceptions Thrown Over 0.5 (-106) |
Premium Prop Selections of the Week
After comprehensive matchup analysis, three prop bets stand out as the week's strongest opportunities based on statistical trends and situational advantages.
Derrick Henry (BAL) - Over 87.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
This represents an ideal convergence of volume opportunity and defensive vulnerability. Henry enters this divisional clash as the primary weapon in Baltimore's ball-control offense, facing a Bengals run defense that ranks among the league's most generous units.
Cincinnati has consistently struggled with gap integrity and missed tackles at the second level, creating perfect conditions for Henry's power running style. With his rushing attempts projection sitting at 17.5, the volume foundation is solidly established.
In a physical AFC North battle where Baltimore will prioritize controlling possession and limiting Joe Burrow's opportunities, expect the Ravens to lean heavily on their veteran workhorse. Henry's ability to break tackles and accelerate through contact makes this yardage total highly attainable.
James Cook (BUF) - Under 79.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
Cook faces his most challenging rushing environment of the season against New England's disciplined defensive front. The Patriots have built their defensive identity around gap responsibility and limiting explosive runs, creating a nightmare matchup for opposing ground games.
Their linebacker corps excels at filling running lanes quickly, while their defensive line consistently wins battles at the line of scrimmage. Cook's 79.5-yard line appears inflated given this matchup reality. Buffalo will likely find more success attacking through the air against New England's more vulnerable secondary, naturally limiting Cook's carry volume. The Patriots' defensive scheme forces opponents into obvious passing situations, making the under the logical path in this divisional contest.
Patrick Mahomes (KC) - Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-106)
Even betting against Mahomes carries inherent risk, this situational spot presents compelling value. The Chargers deploy one of the NFL's most improved secondary units, featuring athletic coverage players who excel at creating contested catch situations.
Their pass rush, anchored by proven edge rushers, generates consistent pressure that forces quarterbacks into hurried decisions. With Rashee Rice facing challenging individual coverage, Mahomes may be compelled to hold the ball longer or attempt riskier throws into tighter windows. The combination of elite coverage and disruptive pass rush creates the perfect storm for generating turnovers. Los Angeles' defensive coordinator has shown excellent game-planning ability against elite quarterbacks, making this interception prop an attractive contrarian play.
Divisional Matchup Breakdowns and Prop Analysis
Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals
Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry - Rushing Yards Over 87.5 (-114)
Cincinnati Bengals: Ja'Marr Chase - Receiving Yards Over 91.5 (-112)
This AFC North clash at Paycor Stadium epitomizes the classic power-versus-finesse dynamic. Baltimore's approach centers on establishing physical dominance through their rushing attack, with Henry serving as the primary catalyst. Cincinnati's run defense has consistently allowed explosive plays and struggled with tackle efficiency, particularly against physical runners who can break initial contact.
The Bengals rank poorly in yards allowed per carry and have shown vulnerability to inside zone concepts that perfectly suit Henry's skill set. Baltimore's offensive line has developed excellent chemistry in run blocking, creating the foundation for a dominant ground performance.
Cincinnati's counter-strategy revolves around explosive passing plays to keep pace with Baltimore's ball-control approach. Chase remains Burrow's most reliable target and explosive playmaker, capable of turning short completions into significant gains.
The Ravens' secondary, while improved, has shown susceptibility to vertical routes and crossing patterns that maximize Chase's route-running precision. In a game with potential shootout elements, Chase becomes the primary beneficiary of Cincinnati's passing volume. His ability to create separation against press coverage and make contested catches gives him multiple paths to surpass this receiving yardage total.
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Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills: James Cook - Rushing Yards Under 79.5 (-112)
New England Patriots: Stefon Diggs - Receiving Yards Over 52.5 (-111)
This divisional rivalry at Gillette Stadium showcases contrasting defensive philosophies that create clear betting angles. New England's defensive scheme prioritizes stopping the run through disciplined gap control and aggressive linebacker play.
Their defensive front consistently wins battles at the line of scrimmage, limiting rushing lanes and forcing running backs into contact behind or at the line. Cook's explosive ability becomes neutralized against such disciplined run fits, making his inflated yardage total vulnerable. Buffalo will likely shift toward quick passing concepts and intermediate routes to move the chains effectively.
The Patriots' focus on containing Cook creates opportunities in the passing game, particularly for a receiver of Diggs' caliber. Despite New England's defensive emphasis, Diggs' route-running precision and Josh Allen's arm talent create natural advantages in the intermediate passing game.
The 52.5-yard receiving line appears conservative for a player who commands consistent target volume regardless of game script. With Buffalo likely forced into more passing situations due to rushing difficulties, Diggs becomes a primary beneficiary of increased aerial opportunities.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert - Rushing Yards Over 24.5 (-107)
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes - Interceptions Thrown Over 0.5 (-106)
This AFC West showdown at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium features two elite quarterbacks navigating challenging defensive environments. Herbert faces a Kansas City pass rush that excels at generating pressure through multiple fronts and creative blitz packages.
However, Herbert's underrated mobility provides an escape valve when pocket protection breaks down. His ability to scramble for significant yardage on designed rollouts and broken plays makes this modest rushing total highly achievable. Kansas City's aggressive pass rush often creates running lanes for mobile quarterbacks who can extend plays outside the pocket.
Mahomes encounters one of his season's most difficult defensive matchups against Los Angeles' transformed secondary. The Chargers feature athletic defensive backs who excel in man coverage and generate turnovers through excellent ball skills. Their pass rush, featuring multiple proven pass rushers, creates consistent pressure that forces quick decisions.
With Rice facing challenging individual matchups against Los Angeles' top coverage players, Mahomes may be compelled to attempt throws into tighter coverage or hold the ball longer than optimal. The Chargers' defensive coordinator has shown excellent preparation against elite quarterbacks, creating the perfect environment for generating an interception against even the league's premier signal-caller.