JUMP TO:
- What is arbitrage betting?
- How arbitrage betting works in practice
- How to find arbitrage opportunities
- Advantages and risks of arbitrage betting
- Best practices for successful arbing
The common messaging behind betting on sports centers around the customer versus the sportsbook. While many other factors influence the player's chances of winning a bet, this 1-on-1 matchup tells most of the story.
However, turning sportsbooks against each other — and, in turn, giving you a near certain profit by default — is possible through arbitrage betting.
When the mathematical opportunity arises, bettors can wager on all possible sides of a sports event's outcome across multiple betting apps, which by default guarantees a profit.
Keep reading to learn about arbitrage betting, its practical uses, and its place as a long-term sports betting strategy.
MORE: The dos and don'ts of bankroll management in sports betting
What is arbitrage betting?
An arbitrage betting strategy occurs when a bettor wagers on every possible outcome of a sports game or market across more than one sportsbook to guarantee a mathematical profit, no matter the bet result.
For example, "arbing" is betting on Team A to win against the spread at one sportsbook, then betting on Team B in the same market at another.
By optimizing your chance to win by betting both results in a two-sided betting market across multiple operators, whose odds reflect vastly different reads on an outcome, you can use these disparate odds against each other for your benefit and an almost guaranteed profit — as long as you're allowed to keep doing so at sportsbooks before they catch on.
It's not just blindly covering both sides of a market at different books, though. Learning the math is key. Keep reading to see how sportsbooks sometimes underprice or overprice lines that create these windows of arbitrage.
MORE: Betting terms glossary
How arbitrage betting works in practice
Using math for "sure betting" is the entire strategy. You don't necessarily need to know anything about the action.
It's merely a case of identifying the proper opportunities to bet on both or more sides of a market.
Depending on how sportsbooks set betting lines, these mistakes expose them and jeopardize their ability to sufficiently cover their risk.
Sportsbooks can leave themselves open for these vulnerabilities intentionally (for example, more favorable promotional odds, a different read on the game) or unintentionally (failing to update live odds quickly, trading entry errors for odds and markets).
The optimal opportunities for arbitrage betting occur when the implied probability of a two-sided bet add up to a percentage of less than 100%. This is called a negative synthetic hold, meaning that the operator is not properly accounting for one end of a game or market outcome due to a lagging vigorish ("juice") that ensures balanced action on all sides.
In these cases, you can simply manipulate the odds with your bet amounts across two operators to essentially guarantee a profit on the bet.
While getting to these opportunities requires patience and focused research, the actual process for arbing in sports betting remains straightforward:
1. Identify bets that have less than 100% implied probability.
Whether you're monitoring odds the analog way (teams of bettors) or the modern way (odds screens and calculator tools, too), you should be able to locate misbalanced betting lines.
Let's say you're looking to make an NFL wager and notice these mismatched odds across two operators:
- Sportsbook A: Team 1 to win at +175 odds (36.38% implied probability)
- Sportsbook B: Team 2 to win at -150 odds (60% implied probability)
- TOTAL IMPLIED PROBABILITY: 96.4%
🚨 Sirens should go off that the total implied probability is less than 100%, which of course should be the sum for every betting market.
MORE: What are the differences between betting exchanges and sportsbooks
2. Calculate the amount to stake on each side.
Bet for a combined total that matches the erroneous implied probability. So in this case, if we're assuming a $100 intent, your stake should total $96.40, distributed between the two ends of the bet.
Apply the higher implied probability side to the longer odds, basically flipping them:
- At Sportsbook A, a wager of $36.38 at +175 odds (2.75 decimal odds)
- At Sportsbook B, a wager of $60.02 at -150 odds (1.67 decimal odds)
🟰 a guaranteed payout either way of $100.04, marking a $3.64 profit and a 3.77% return on investment (ROI).
3. Submit your bets as quickly as possible.
One of the biggest risks in missing out on arbitrage opportunities is delayed entry before odds change. Move quickly if you identify these chances.
How to find arbitrage opportunities
Monitoring for arbing opportunities requires rigorous attention to detail, ample time to devote to the practice, perhaps several people involved in the planning...
An arb bettor can do most of the legwork themselves through "manual scanning," though in modern betting times with the advent of betting apps and products, "automated scanning" tools contribute significant aid to the process.
Manually scanning for arbitrage opportunities
- Tracking odds at one sportsbook at a time
- Calculating your own implied probability
While these steps can be done without computer tools and programs, this is significantly more time-consuming and much less efficient.
Automated scanning arbitrage methods
Arbitrage calculators
In lieu of calculating on your own, many sites have software that allows you to figure out (a) what betting matchups are a sound arbitrage opportunity, and (b) how much you need to bet on each side to guarantee a net profit on the market.
Odds comparison tools
Odds screens have long been recommended to spot opportunities to bet across different operators, most often recommended to look for the most favorable odds for a single event.
Monitor promotional odds boosts on popular events
Sportsbooks may widely advertise odds promos and boosts for particular events to generate new user signups or more action out of returning customers.
If you can benchmark corresponding odds to these popular wagers, you could locate some fault lines across operators.
MORE: How to bet — strategy tips for getting started
Advantages and risks of arbitrage betting
Advantages of arbitrage betting
- Risk-free profit: It's clear-cut math. Identify combined implied probabilities
- Low variance: The outcome doesn't matter. Arbitrage betting inherently accounts for every possible result in a market to ensure the bettor comes out ahead.
Downsides of arbitrage betting
- Account limiting: If sportsbooks catch onto any attempts to arbitrage, they may place limits on how much your account can bet. Limits can be imposed for a time before a total ban is implemented, depending on their review of the betting history.
- Human error: Calculating the proper implied probability of any betting market is imperative, both on the trading end and the arber's end. Of course, entering the correct wager amount to properly arb is crucial, as well. Sometimes, miscalculations will throw the whole process off and waste an opportunity.
- Odds changes: If you want to arbitrage, you must act quickly to get the mismatched prices locked in. Odds are in constant flux thanks to trading team changes, public and "sharp" betting, and news about the sporting event or market. You could lose out on a more efficient arb pairing.
As is the case with card counting in blackjack, arbitrage isn't necessarily illegal or restricted (unless you violate terms of service to achieve your goals).
It's primarily frowned upon as a practice by the sportsbooks, and just as any casino can... Eject counters (maybe not Casino-style), sportsbooks can freeze or delete your account if you tip your hand that you're arbing.
MORE: Ultimate sports betting checklist to follow
Best practices for successful arbing
Create a team
Find your "arb Avenger(s)."
Even with odds screens, having multiple sets of eyes and thumbs on line movement and mispricing positions an arber in the best windows to capitalize.
Of course, keep it at a somewhat small operation so as not to tip off anyone watching.
Use an odds screen
As mentioned previously, you need a seamless way to compare fast-changing odds to find arb opportunities (arbortunities?).
Many betting advice sites offer odds screens with the labeling of arb opportunities for easy reference.
Make a long-term plan to avoid detection
Budget for and place the occasional longshot, likely losing, or round-number bet
Sometimes, you have to lose a battle to win a war. Sports gaming operators are becoming more astute in identifying arbitrage patterns; they're monitoring other sportsbooks' trading teams, too, and constantly comparing how they price events.
Every so often, throw $5 on a same-game parlay or a MLB prop for a player to hit a home run. Entering several of these low-efficiency, risk-reward bets could work toward masking your true activity.
Memorize odds conversion to implied probability
This will allow for quicker reference when scanning if not using an arb calculator.
Here's a tip: The numbers that mirror each other in American odds — say, -110 and +110 — add up to 100% implied probability.
Get to know which odds on either side of the Pick 'em line create mismatches; as is the case with card counting, this may naturally happen through practice.
The specificity of the bet sizes involved in arbitrage betting — betting the exact, profitable amounts above instead of, say, a flat $5 — require you to know at the drop of a hat how much to bet on each side, too. As long as you have a consistent unit size you can reference, you can implement this strategy in a knee-jerk fashion.
Remember: Arbitrage isn't a get-rich quick scheme
The most sustainable arbitrage strategies focus on a long-term play.
Sure, if you have a large bankroll and eventually have the ability to invest significantly sized stakes on each arb, then you will see stronger, quicker growth on the whole.
Inefficiencies will appear in the sports betting trading markets daily, and taking those layups for free money when you can get them will add up in the long run.
But for those starting on the process, do not expect exponential growth soon.
You may occasionally find a flaw that could result in upwards of a 10% ROI on arbitrage, but those are considered exceptional results and do not show up frequently. Do not expect them to be handed to you.
Just like with investing in mutual funds and bonds, treat this as a slow burn that could eventually pay off with diligent attention to detail and a refined process.
MORE: What is a betting unit?
Popular sportsbooks that may be available in your area for SGPs
Even if sports betting is legal in your state, not all sportsbooks may be available to you. Here are some of the most popular options to look into:
MORE: How sportsbooks set betting lines