Few players have improved their stock more than Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson in 2025. Emerging from Jalen Milroe's backup to a quality starter has kept the Crimson Tide on the SEC map (despite a speed bump in Week 1) and made him a viable early-round candidate.
The first-round hype is warranted. Simpson has commandeered an offense that took down the No. 5 Georgia Bulldogs and, on Saturday, threw for 340 yards in a win over No. 16 Vanderbilt. In a quarterback class that has experienced a good amount of turbulence, Simpson's stock is on the rise.
It has become difficult to count him out of the first round. However, NFL decision-makers may hesitate to pull the trigger.
Ty Simpson's inexperience could shape his stock
The following isn't an indictment of Simpson's talent or the success he has found this season. He is currently completing over 70% of his passes, has thrown 13 touchdowns to one interception, and leads the SEC in passing yards (1,478).
Still, Simpson is just five starts into his college career. By the end of the season, Alabama can play a maximum of 16 games. There simply aren't many reps for him to take, and NFL teams have shown an affinity for experienced passers.
Cam Ward had his best season after a long college career. Jayden Daniels needed that time to become a top-two pick, much like Joe Burrow. Bo Nix set the record for starts by a college quarterback, and Justin Herbert's decision to return to school added credibility to his top-10 stock.
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On the other hand, the least experienced passers to be drafted in Round 1 have a concerning hit rate.
Since the 2015 NFL Draft, 37 passers have been taken on Thursday night. Among them are six quarterbacks to have made 17 or fewer starts.
| Name | Year | CFB Starts | Pro Bowls | MVP Votes | Hit? |
| Anthony Richardson Sr. | 2023 | 13 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Trey Lance | 2021 | 17 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Mac Jones | 2021 | 17 | 1 | 0 | No |
| Dwayne Haskins | 2019 | 14 | 0 | 0 | No |
| Kyler Murray | 2019 | 14 | 2 | 0 | Yes |
| Mitch Trubisky | 2017 | 13 | 1 | 0 | No |
There are different archetypes within that sample, from physical freaks to in-structure machines. Murray won a Heisman and went first overall, while Lance, Richardson, and Jones were all polarizing for different reasons. None of them have been slam dunks, and somehow the jury is still out on Murray, the group's biggest success.
Recent wins have suggested that college reps matter. The NFL is churning through passers quicker than ever before. Passers rarely have long runways to development. Imagine the discourse if Drake Maye hadn't flashed early in 2025; remember how quickly the football world turned on Richardson, who everyone felt was a long-term project.
Coaches and general managers have jobs to protect. They aren't in the business of waiting around for quarterbacks to improve.
Subsequently, there are hurdles for Simpson to clear. There will be more looks that he hasn't seen, fewer mistakes to reflect on, and fewer snaps to mold his instincts. While I can't tell you whether that will decide Simpson's fate, I can promise that it's a real piece of the puzzle.
SEC Passing Leaders (TDs):
— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) October 5, 2025
1) Ty Simpson - 1,478 yds (13)
2) Joey Aguilar - 1,459 yds (13)
3) Diego Pavia - 1,409 yds (14)
4) Taylen Green - 1,398 yds (12)
5) Marcel Reed - 1,256 yds (11)
pic.twitter.com/YlmdW4jLjU
Simpson has the arm talent to thrive and is winning between the ears. He's making high-level throws, avoiding turnovers, and limiting sacks. Perhaps those traits are enough to overcome the concerns of his inexperience.
If Simpson continues to put first-round tape on film as the SEC schedule wraps up and bowl season arrives, he'll fare well on my board. But if he struggles down the stretch, the limited sample size clouding his profile will become a significant piece of his projection. The Crimson Tide faithful will hope the hype keeps increasing against the No. 14 Missouri Tigers in Week 7.
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