Remember Jacksonville's coach Liam Coen's awkward attempt at a "Duval!" during his introductory press conference?
Few would have guessed at the time the Jaguars would be 3-1 heading into a Monday Night Football matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs – who are trying to get over .500 for the first time this season.
Jacksonville is better. Trevor Lawrence is taking fewer sacks. Travis Etienne averages 6.3 yards per carry. The defense has forced three or more turnovers in every game.
Now, Jacksonville gets the prime-time stage. The Jaguars are 1-4 S/U in home games on MNF, but this would be that memorable moment to knock off the Kansas City Chiefs (10/1 to win the Super Bowl). The defending AFC champions have their act back together after a 37-20 victory against the Ravens.
That is the highlight of the Week 5 NFL schedule. The Bears, Falcons, Packers and Steelers have bye weeks.
Straight up: 41-20-1 (9-4-1 in Week 4)
Against the spread: 30-30-2 (9-6 in Week 4)
POWER RANKINGS: Rams, Steelers and Chiefs bump up; Ravens, 49ers fade for Week 5
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 5.
NFL picks, predictions for Week 5
- San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-4)
This line bumped up half a point, which is fitting knowing the last four meetings in this series have been decided by four points or less. The 49ers have a -5 turnover ratio, which showed up in the loss to Jacksonville, and they have yet to score a rushing TD this season. This will be close – but the home team gets the win in the NFC West matchup.
Pick: Rams 24, 49ers 22
- Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns
The Vikings' overseas tour continues in London. Cleveland's offensive struggles continue, and quarterback Joe Flacco has two TDs and four interceptions. Will Dillon Gabriel get a shot? Minnesota will make due with Carson Wentz if he starts in place of JJ McCarthy.
Pick: Vikings 20, Browns 14
- Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-6.5)
The Raiders are improving with Pete Carroll, and Ashton Jeanty is coming off a 138-yard performance against the Bears. On the other side, Jonathan Taylor continues to lead the NFL with 414 rushing yards. The Colts and Raiders are both good against the run, so quarterbacks Geno Smith and Daniel Jones will have to make plays. Who does that without turnovers?
Pick: Colts 28, Raiders 21
- New York Giants (Pick 'em) at New Orleans Saints
How will Jaxson Dart fare in his first road start? Malik Nabers might be out with a torn ACL. New York is 0-2 S/U on the road this season. Spencer Rattler has a 90.7 QB rating at home. The Saints don't have too many chances to get in the win column – but this is one at home that's possible.
Pick: Saints 17, Giants 16
- Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Jets
How will the Cowboys use the momentum from the 40-40 tie against the Packers in Week 4? George Pickens is coming off his best game – but the defense continues to give up a league-worst 420.5 yards per game. The Jets are coming off a short week, and they'll need to generate a few turnovers. Look for the Cowboys to feed Javonte Williams against a shaky Jets run defense.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Jets 24
- Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
The Eagles continue to grind out victories. Philadelphia is 12-1 S/U as a home favorite since last season, but they are 7-6 ATS. Will Jalen Hurts get the passing game going against the Broncos? Denver has given up an average of 288 passing yards per game in two road losses. This would be the week to do it.
Pick: Eagles 26, Broncos 21
- Miami Dolphins (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Panthers won their only other home game 30-0 – which makes this a tough line to gauge. Miami coach Mike McDaniel remains on the hot seat – and the Dolphins are on a short week. The Dolphins were a 2-0 ATS as a road favorite last season.
Pick: Dolphins 26, Panthers 23
- Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
Will Lamar Jackson (hamstring) play? Cooper Rush would start in his place. He's not the only concern for the Ravens, who have a string of defensive injuries. This line is going to fluctuate wildly as a result, and we will revisit if Jackson is ruled out. Would Baltimore really fall to 1-4?
Pick: Ravens 26, Texans 21
- Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (-9.5)
The Titans are heavy underdogs, and with good reasons. They have lost their last three games by an average of 19.7 points per game. Cam Ward called out the team afterward, and that could go either way. Arizona is struggling, too, but they have played in four one-score games this season.
Pick: Cardinals 24, Titans 17
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
The Buccaneers' tough early-season schedule continues against the Seahawks, who have a little extra rest after their Thursday Night Football victory at Arizona. Both teams excel at stopping the run, and the Seahawks have generated a few more turnovers. Baker Mayfield, however, has just one interception this season. It's another dramatic finish with Sam Darnold in a battle between the No. 1 and No. 3 picks in the 2018 NFL Draft.
Pick: Buccaneers 28, Seahawks 27
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- Detroit Lions (-8.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Lions have found their offensive stride with Jared Goff – who has a 77.95 completion percentage in three games since the Week 1 loss at Green Bay. The Bengals are 0-2 ATS as a home underdog the last three seasons – so it's a rare occasion to rise up in this situation. Detroit is 11-2 ATS as a road favorite since 2023. If the Bengals can't slow down Detroit's running game, then it's going to be a long game.
Pick: Lions 31, Bengals 20
- Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
The Chargers have injuries – including tackle Joe Alt (ankle) – and that showed in the loss to the Giants. Washington also has injuries to several key playmakers, but Jayden Daniels (knee) is expected to return this week. Three of Los Angeles' four games have been decided by three points. This game will follow that trend. Los Angeles is 5-1-1 ATS at home under Jim Harbaugh.
Pick: Chargers 24, Commanders 21
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
The Bills are back at home on Sunday Night Football against the rival Patriots, who have been competitive under first-year coach Mike Vrabel. It's a fun quarterback matchup. Josh Allen has a (109.7) passer rating, and Drake Maye (109.4) is not far behind.The Bills have won the last four home meetings, but the last two have been one-score games. Look for New England to hang around into the second half.
Pick: Bills 30, Patriots 22
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Chiefs have their swagger back with the return of Xavier Worthy, but the Jaguars are a fascinating early-season story with first-year coach Liam Coen. Travis Etienne averages 6.1 yards per carry. Will the Chiefs slow him down? It's a special occasion for Jacksonville, but the Chiefs spoil the fun late.
Pick: Chiefs 28, Jaguars 24