We are at what seems like the fifth "back against the wall" moment for the Kansas City Chiefs.
This time, it's at Empower Field at Mile High at 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday. Denver (8-2) has a commanding lead in the AFC West over Kansas City (5-4). The Broncos beat the Chiefs each of the last two seasons at home – though last year's 38-0 blowout was a product of Kansas City sitting their starters. Sean Payton is 2-4 against the Chiefs.
That broke up Kansas City's 16-game win streak in the rivalry from 2015-23. Yet now, the pressure is on the Chiefs. Kansas City is 1-4 against teams that have winning records in Week 10. This is a chance to show that the division race will not go uncontested – the Chiefs are in third behind the Chargers (7-3) – and that Kansas City can still flex on the road.
It's the most-compelling game on the Week 10 schedule, but it might be the best game. The Seahawks and Rams square off in a battle of 7-2 teams, and Detroit faces Philadelphia on Sunday Night Football.
Those are the highlights of the Week 11 schedule. Here is a look at our track record on picks heading into the second half of the season:
Straight up: 95-53-1 (9-5 in Week 10)
Against the spread: 74-73-2 (6-8 in Week 10)
POWER RANKINGS: Patriots, Seahawks, Lions leap; Bills, 49ers, Steelers drop for Week 11
NFL picks, predictions for Week 11
- New York Jets at New England Patriots (-11.5)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m.
The Patriots can extend their winning streak to eight games, and they are 6-1 ATS during that winning streak. The Jets will be double-digit underdogs this week – and probably next against the Ravens in Week 12. Double-digits favorites are 5-5 ATS in the NFL this year.
Pick: Patriots 27, Jets 17
MORE: How Drake Maye outperformed Baker Mayfield in Week 10 battle
- Washington Commanders at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m.
The NFL International Series continues in Madrid with two disappointing teams. The Dolphins have won two of their last three – and De'Von Achane is coming off a 174-yard, two-TD performance against Buffalo. The Commanders have allowed 28 points or more in four straight losses.
Pick: Dolphins 28, Commanders 24
MORE: What Dolphins' upset win over Bills means for AFC East picture
- Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Panthers are a puzzling 5-5 team – but they have won three of the last five road meetings at Atlanta. The Falcons allowed 323 rushing yards in the overseas loss to Indianapolis – and Carolina won the first meeting 30-0 in Week 3 – and that was before Rico Dowdle had become a breakout player. The Falcons, however, find a way at home to break the streak.
Pick: Falcons 24, Panthers 21
MORE: How to bet on NFL in the UK - a complete beginners' guide
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Which team responds to a Week 10 loss? The Bills are 3-1 S/U at home. The Buccaneers have a plus-8 turnover margin, which should play well on the road. Tampa Bay also is 1-2 S/U when they allow 100 rushing yards, and the Buffalo is 5-0 S/U when James Cook rushes for 100 yards or more. Keep an eye on that in-game trend. Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS on the road.
Pick: Bills 30, Buccaneers 27
MORE: Why Bills' loss to Dolphins proves Josh Allen isn't team's 2025 MVP
- Houston Texans (-7.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Titans are coming off a bye week and trying to break a four-game losing streak. Houston rallied from a 19-point deficit to beat Jacksonville and could get C.J. Stroud (concussion) back. Look for the Texans to get back to.500 here. Houston won the first meeting 26-0 in Week 4.
Pick: Texans 28, Titans 17
MORE: How Texans' stunning comeback vs. Jaguars shakes up AFC South picture
- Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Bears have pulled out dramatic fourth-quarter victories each of the last two weeks with Caleb Williams. Vikings quarterback JJ McCarthy led a dramatic comeback against Chicago in Week 1 – but he has a 50.7% completion percentage in his last two starts. The Vikings make a stand late in desperation mode to stay afloat in the NFC North.
Pick: Vikings 28, Bears 23
- Green Bay Packers (-8.5) at New York Giants
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Brian Daboll is out. Does that give the Giants an emotional bump? Green Bay is coming off a short week – and the Giants might be without Jaxson Dart, who left with the loss to the Bears with a concussion. That means Russell Wilson would get the start against Green Bay. New York had no sacks in Week 10. If they can't pressure Jordan Love, then this could get ugly. The Packers are 0-4 ATS when favored by seven points or more.
Pick: Packers 29, Giants 18
MORE: Ranking Giants' best replacements for Brian Daboll
- Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
The Steelers have lost three of four games – a slide that started with the 33-30 loss to Cincinnati in Week 7. The Bengals allowed an average of 268.5 rushing yards in two losses after that. It's hard to trust a road underdog – even one coming off a bye week – with that kind of defense.
Pick: Steelers 31, Bengals 24
- Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Jacksonville had a plus-eight turnover margin in a 4-1 start. The Jaguars are even in four games since that game. The Chargers are 3-1 S/U on the road, but the two early-start East Coast trips have been close. Can Jacksonville bounce back at home to avoid falling to.500?
Pick: Chargers 23, Jaguars 21
MORE: Chargers' defense stifles Aaron Rodgers, Steelers on 'Sunday Night Football'
- Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Are these the two best teams in the NFC? Sam Darnold has a 86.1% completion percentage the last two weeks. Matthew Stafford has 13 TDs and no interceptions in his last three games. Which defense can disrupt the QB rhythm? Both meetings last season were decided by six points or less.
Pick: Rams 31, Seahawks 27
MORE: How Matthew Stafford has built MVP case
- San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
The 49ers are 2-2 S/U on the road with a pair of double-digit losses. Jacoby Brissett has taken 16 sacks in Arizona's last three games. 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will turn up the heat, and San Francisco will bounce back from a blowout loss to the Rams. The first meeting was close – a 16-15 nail-biter – in Week 3.
Pick: 49ers 28, Cardinals 20
- Baltimore Ravens (-8.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
The Ravens are hot. Baltimore has not converted a turnover and has a plus-seven margin through a three-game winning streak. Dillon Gabriel took six sacks in Week 10, but Baltimore hasn't had more than two sacks in a game this season. The Browns are 3-0 ATS at home this season and have won three of the last four home meetings against the Ravens. Can they make this ugly enough to keep it close late?
Pick: Ravens 26, Browns 19
MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture heading into Week 11
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Can the Broncos really take that much of a lead in the AFC West against the Chiefs? Denver is 5-0 S/U at home, but the Broncos also are 2-3 ATS. This is the first time they've been a home underdog this season. Why do we keep going to the Chiefs here?
Pick: Chiefs 23, Broncos 21
- Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Or are these the two best teams in the NFC? This is a potential NFC championship preview. Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties for the Lions last week – and they rushed for 226 yards. The Eagles have cleaned up the run defense. Both teams convert more than 70% of their attempts on fourth down. This game is a huge opportunity for the Lions – who have lost to the Packers and Chiefs in the national spotlight.
Pick: Lions 28, Eagles 22
- Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, 8:15 p.m.
The Cowboys get a mulligan from their Monday Night Football disaster against the Cardinals. The Raiders have lost their last two games by a combined total of four points, and Dak Prescott has a 92.5 QB rating on the road, but he will make enough plays in the passing game to push the Cowboys to a victory.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Raiders 20