NFL Draft scenarios 2026: How Raiders or Giants can clinch No. 1 pick in Week 18

The final week of the regular season is an exciting time. It is the last chance for teams in contention for playoff spots to make their moves toward the postseason. 

On the other end of the standings spectrum, teams at the bottom of the league have already turned their attention to the offseason and next year. The 2026 NFL Draft is coming in April, and the draft order will be finalized at the end of the Super Bowl. At the end of the regular season, though, we will have the order for the first 18 picks. 

The Las Vegas Raiders and the New York Giants are a combined 5-27 on the season. While it feels like doom and gloom, there is a bright spot in the future. Both teams are the last two with a shot at the first overall pick in the draft. That draft selection could either be used to select a difference maker, or trade for a litany of picks to bolster their respective futures. 

Here is more on how the Raiders or the Giants can clinch the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in Week 18. 

MORE WEEK 18 NFL:

• NFL power rankings for Week 18
• NFL Week 18 picks, predictions
• NFL Week 18 picks against the spread

Who will get the No. 1 pick in 2026 NFL Draft?

How Raiders can clinch No. 1 pick

The Raiders control the race for the No. 1 pick. Las Vegas has a simple way to earn the No. 1 pick: lose in Week 18 to the Kansas City Chiefs. But that isn't the only way for the Raiders to clinch the No. 1 pick.

Here are the ways that Las Vegas can clinch the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft in Week 18. 

• Loss to Chiefs

OR

• Giants beat Cowboys

OR

• Three total losses between the Falcons (vs. Saints), Bears (vs. Lions), Browns (vs. Bengals) and Seahawks (vs. 49ers)

How Giants can clinch No. 1 pick

The Giants are the only other team with a path to the No. 1 pick in the draft. Unfortunately for New York, it isn't as simple as a loss and a Raiders win, and three specific stipulations have to occur. 

• Loss vs. Cowboys

AND

• Raiders beat Chiefs

AND

• 1 1/2 combined wins from Falcons (vs. Saints), Bears (vs. Lions), Browns (vs. Bengals) and Seahawks (vs. 49ers)

For that last stipulation, a half a win would come from a tie. So along with a loss to Dallas and Las Vegas beating Kansas City, the Giants would need at least a win and a tie from Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland and Seattle. 

MORE: Updated AFC, NFC playoff pictures heading into Week 18

NFL Draft order 2026

Here is the projected 2026 NFL Draft order entering Week 18.