One of the Carolina Panthers or Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win the NFC South, but that victory will not be determined by either team.
After the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday, the two teams are tied atop the NFC South, but the Atlanta Falcons could join them at 8-9 with a win over the New Orleans Saints. That means the tiebreak rules depend on the Falcons' result, which would impact who wins the division.
A Falcons win is beneficial to the Panthers, but a Saints win helps the Buccaneers, which will divide the NFC South fans into factions on Sunday. Here's a look at the tiebreak scenarios at play in the NFC South on Sunday.
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NFC South standings tiebreaker
| Rank | Team | Record |
| T-1. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 |
| T-1. | Carolina Panthers | 8-9 |
| 3. | Atlanta Falcons | 7-9 |
| 4. | New Orleans Saints | 6-10 |
After the Buccaneers beat the Panthers on Saturday, the two teams are tied at the top of the division at 8-9. However, the Falcons could join them with a win over the Saints on Sunday.
Therefore, the NFC South winner will either be decided with a two-way or three-way tiebreak, but the priorities are different depending on the number of teams involved. The Buccaneers would win a two-way tiebreak, as they have more wins against common opponents, while the Panthers would win a three-way tiebreak, since they are 3-1 on the year against Atlanta and Tampa Bay while the Buccaneers are 2-2 against Atlanta and Carolina.
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NFL tiebreakers for divisional ties
Here's a look at the NFL tiebreak rules for divisional ties:
Tie between two teams
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Strength of victory in all games.
- Strength of schedule in all games
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best net points in common games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss
In the case of a tie between the Panthers and Buccaneers, the two sides were 1-1 in head-to-head matchups and 3-3 in division this year. However, Tampa Bay is 7-7 in common games, while the Panthers are just 6-8, giving Tampa Bay the edge.
Tie between three or more teams
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after one-or-more clubs are eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of two-club format. If three clubs remain tied after a fourth club is eliminated during any step, tiebreaker restarts at Step 1 of three-club format.)
- Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
- Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
- Strength of victory in all games.
- Strength of schedule in all games.
- Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed in all games.
- Best net points in common games.
- Best net points in all games.
- Best net touchdowns in all games.
- Coin toss
In the case of a tie between the Panthers, Buccaneers and Falcons, the tiebreak is decided with a head-to-head tiebreak between the three. The Panthers went 2-0 against the Falcons and 1-1 against the Buccaneers, while Tampa Bay was 1-1 against Atlanta and 1-1 against Carolina. Therefore, the Panthers' 3-1 record wins out over the Buccaneers' 2-2 record.
Of course, the Falcons were 1-3 against Carolina and Tampa Bay, finishing third in the tiebreak. The difference in the division would end up being the Panthers' season sweep of Atlanta.