Predicting the first round of the NFL Draft is a near impossibility. There are too many teams, too much information that will never be public, and too great a chance of a trade spoiling in an otherwise perfect mock.
Among those infinite permutations, though, the No. 1 pick is generally easy to nail down. Cam Ward had been the unofficial quarterback of the Tennessee Titans for weeks before draft day. Caleb Williams was (perhaps errantly) the Chicago Bears' future in December. A surprise with the first overall pick has happened twice in the past decade, when a lack of consensus defined the 2018 and 2022 classes.
While the crop of 2026 quarterbacks might follow a similar path, polarizing evaluators and puzzling pundits, there's a real chance the football world figures this thing out by bowl season. At the very least, we can limit our search to three positions: quarterback, edge rusher, and offensive tackle. It's been 30 years since another position got the festivities started, so Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods and Ohio State safety Caleb Downs need not hold their breath.
Let's take a look at the early favorites to be the first pick in April.
Quarterbacks
Initial looks at this quarterback class have been enjoyable. There are plenty of draft-eligible passers, each with their own set of arguments to top the class. Of course, it's the most likely position to go No. 1.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU
There is no clear favorite at this point in the cycle, but Nussmeier has an inside track if he builds on his 2024 campaign. The Tigers are championship contenders, and he looked the part in a playoff preview against Clemson in Week 1. He's the most pro-ready passer in the class, remains in control pre- and post-snap, and makes more plays than his average tools would suggest.
Arch Manning, Texas
Manning entered the season with the most hype and fanfare of any player in the class. He quickly dampened it with the worst performance of his career. There's plenty of time for him to get his stock back where his last name suggests it belongs. He has above-average tools and flashed quick processing in and out of structure against lesser competition as a freshman. Keeping his mechanics in check and re-establishing trust in his intangibles will be imperative in the coming months.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina
Sellers is bound to be one of the class's most polarizing passers. He is incredibly talented and capable of pulling off scrambles that would make the game's most dynamic players blush. His 240-pound frame is difficult to bring down, and there's plenty of arm talent to work with, too. Still, Sellers has work to do within the pocket to avoid turnovers and operate on time. If he showcases that development this season, there's no limit to his stock.
Drew Allar, Penn State
Allar has the prototypical size and arm talent to be a top pick come April. There's some intangible development for him to forge in 2025, particularly within the pocket. After a brief suspicion that he'd be a top pick in last year's class, another year in Happy Valley offers him the chance to gain crucial experience and potentially win Penn State a championship. Another solid CFP outing could punch his ticket to a top draft pick.
Cade Klubnik, Clemson
Klubnik has had an unsteady start to his season, dampening his stock and lessening the chance that he hears his name called. Even so, he's an experienced passer who has the tools to stretch the field and the mobility to be a real part of a rushing offense, along with a good feel for timing within structure. Clemson has playoff aspirations, affording him no shortage of chances to prove himself in his senior season.
Fernando Mendoza, Indiana
Mendoza firmly entrenched himself in the top tier of quarterbacks in this year's class last season. He's talented enough to win over a top-picking team, most notably with his ability to stretch the field and test tight windows. Indiana's shot at the College Football Playoff gives him a chance to showcase his upside in big games, too.
MORE: NFL Mock Draft 2026: Overreacting to a wild Week 1
Edge Rushers
T.J. Parker, Clemson
Parker falls behind his partner in crime, Woods, on my board. But as an edge rusher, his odds of going No. 1 are inherently higher. Woods entered the year as the consensus EDGE1 and hasn't done much to fumble that through two weeks. He wins with speed to power and plays the run well, which should be enough to keep him in Round 1. If he's going to become the class's best non-quarterback, showing out against NFL-level tackle will be imperative.
Keldric Faulk, Auburn
Faulk has all the ingredients to be an early-drafted pass rusher. He'll test well during the pre-draft circuit, is big enough to stay on the field against the run, and is a polished technician with a high floor. My top edge rusher, Faulk has played well early in the season and has an SEC schedule providing him plenty of high-profile matchups.
Rueben Bain Jr., Miami
Bain began the year with questions about last season's injury sapping him of athleticism and dampening his stock. By the end of Week 1's showdown with Notre Dame, he put those doubts to rest. Bain's blend of size and speed is promising, and his tools afford him multiple paths to making an impact. His quality technique amplifies his athleticism, and he's big enough to play the run and moonlight inside.
Offensive Tackles
Spencer Fano, Utah
Fano is the most complete tackle in this class and already has top-10 hype. It's understood that each of the linemen with No. 1 aspirations has to leap into the near-generational tier to get that call. Fano has a non-zero chance at pulling it off. He's a technician with plus athleticism and an adequate anchor, allowing him to find success in both phases.
Kadyn Proctor, Alabama
If there's a lineman whose physical traits launch him to stardom, it's the Crimson Tide's blindside protector. A massive 360 pounds, Proctor is an easy athlete who moves exceptionally well for his size. His technique has wavered at times, but when it's on, he looks like the best lineman in the nation.
Dark Horses
Francis Mauigoa, Miami
Mauigoa is hurt by being a right tackle, but his run blocking might be the best in the class. He has guard versatility, which elevates his floor, even if the team drafting him will have obvious hopes of making him a franchise tackle. If he can take a big enough stride in pass protection and test well in Indianapolis, there's a path to making the right team fall in love.
Carson Beck, Miami
Beck has already experienced life as the favorite to go No. 1 overall. This time around, he's been tasked with rebuilding his stock in the ACC. I have my reservations, but he's proven skeptics wrong in the early going, flashing high-level aggression and enough arm strength to pull it off. Things have gone perfectly thus far, and there's a chance he meshes his pro-ready skill set with the type of downfield proficiency that elicits upside.
John Mateer, Oklahoma
The Sooner faithful have seen this story before. Mateer is the spiritual successor to Baker Mayfield, and in his first season in Norman, he's already exceeding expectations. He helped upset Michigan in Week 2, throwing for 270 yards and finding another 74 on the ground. He's a true rushing threat who does his best work out of structure. If he can win within structure consistently, there are enough tools to flash all season long.
Caleb Lomu, Utah
Lomu is arguably the best pass protector in this class, giving his stock helium. There are real questions for him to answer in the ground game, but development there would make him one of the better lineman prospects in recent memory.
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