TL;DR
- Detroit Lions are currently outside NFC playoff picture at 6-4 after Week 11 loss to Eagles.
- Lions trail Bears by a full game and Packers by half a game in NFC North standings.
- Detroit has a favorable remaining schedule and is projected to finish 11-6 or 12-5.
- Lions still have a greater than 75 percent chance to win the NFC North division title.
If the NFC playoffs started in Week 12 of the 2025 NFL regular season, the Detroit Lions would be out. The Lions went a combined 27-7 to take the past two NFC North titles, but at 6-4 through Week 11, they still have work to do to ensure a third straight postseason trip.
Following the Lions' rough 16-9 loss at the reigning Super Bowl champion and current NFC top seed Eagles on Sunday night, here's a look at where Detroit stands in the NFC playoff picture.
Lions playoff possibilities
Entering Week 11, the Lions held the top spot in their division, securing the third seed in the NFC. However, following the Bears's victory over the Vikings and the Packers's win against the Giants, the Lions were unable to secure a victory against the Eagles, thus falling behind in the standings.
The Lions now trail the Bears, the new third seed, by a full game, and the Packers, the sixth seed, by half a game. Additionally, they are now a half-game behind the 7-4 49ers, who secured the final NFC wild-card position by defeating the Cardinals in Arizona.
MORE: Updated NFL Playoff Picture For Week 11
Lions' NFC North odds?
The Lions are 1-2 in division games and 3-3 in conference games. They have lost on the road in the division to the Packers, split with the Vikings and beat the Bears at home. Detroit has three NFC North games left, with Green Bay still coming to Detroit in Week 13, plus at Minnesota and at Chicago back-to-back to close the season in Week 17 and 18 respectively.
With a 1-2 record in the division, the Bears face a Packers team that remains 1-0 after defeating the Lions at Lambeau Field in Week 1, and still has five more divisional matchups ahead. This leaves a significant amount of NFC North games to be played over the season's remaining seven weeks.
Detroit's excellent news is its upcoming three-game home stand at Ford Field, a venue where the team performs significantly better (facing the Giants, Packers, and Cowboys). The Steelers will be the Lions' last home adversary during Week 16. Furthermore, the Lions won't play another outdoor game until Week 18 in Chicago, with away games scheduled against the dome-dwelling Vikings and Rams.
Beyond a rematch against Matthew Stafford and the Rams, the Lions are projected to be the favorites in a minimum of five of their remaining seven contests. This positions them to potentially equal their 12-5 performance from the previous year, or at the very least, conclude the season with an 11-6 standing.
Conversely, the Bears face three challenging away matchups against Philadelphia, Green Bay, and San Francisco. Additionally, they'll host the Packers and Steelers on their home turf. The Packers, aside from their two contests with The Bears and Vikings, have an away return match against the Lions, in addition to traveling to face the Broncos and hosting the Ravens.
The Lions now hold an advantage with a more favorable finish to their schedule, considering the considerable wear and tear expected between Chicago, Green Bay, and Minnesota, and the limited separation among them.
The Lions' losses have come to the Packers, Chiefs, Vikings and Eagles. Three of them were in brutal road environments vs. Tough defenses. On flip side, Detroit tends to beat up on lesser teams with their explosive offense. The Bears also have had no true clunkers, while the Packers (see Carolina, Cleveland) have.
Don't be fooled about where the Lions are now. They are still motoring toward another division title in the bigger playoff picture. Five more wins should do it. They still have a greater than 75 percent chance to win the division.
MORE: Bears, Packers win to shake up NFC North standings
Lions' NFC wild-card chances
Should the Lions fail to secure the division title, the Bears, currently in first place, have a greater probability of clinching the NFC North championship compared to the second-place Packers. Concurrently, Detroit is projected to secure a wild card berth with an 11-6 record, given that the Seahawks, Packers, and 49ers collectively present enough vulnerabilities for Detroit to displace one of them.
At a minimum, the Lions will secure a playoff spot and the No. 7 seed, setting up a crucial rematch against either the Eagles or Rams.