Before Josh Allen was an NFL MVP and joined the ranks of the league's elite veteran quarterbacks with the Bills, he was a polarizing 2018 NFL Draft prospect. Looking back on a class that had five QBs picked in the first-round, Allen (No. 7 overall) and the Ravens' Lamar Jackson (No. 32 overall) still stand out eight years later.
Allen, however, almost had another NFL path, given he was the fourth QB off the board that year, behind Baker Mayfield (No.1. To Browns), Sam Darnold (No. 3 to Jets), going ahead of only Josh Rosen (No. 10 to Cardinals) and Jackson.
The Bills traded up five spots from No. 12 with Tampa Bay to get Allen, fortuitous given Rosen was an immediate bust in Arizona, prompting that team to take Kyler Murray No. 1 overall in. 2019.
The Bills also were lucky with the three picks before No. 7. With the Browns getting Mayfield, they were out on taking a QB at No. 4. At No. 6, the Colts didn't know that Andrew Luck was retiring until right before the '19 season, or they might have opted to take Allen instead of stud guard Quenton Nelson.
No. 5, however, was the biggest bullet dodged with the Broncos, attached plenty to Allen before the draft, went defense with edge rusher Bradley Chubb instead of Allen. Then it became a no-brainer to trade up and beat the Cardinals and other teams intrigued by Allen to the punch.
Why did Denver not decide to take Allen, despite the rumors and a bad post-Peyton Manning bridge QB situation? Here's looking back on why the former Wyoming Cowboy didn't up as a Bronco:
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Why Broncos were interested to draft Josh Allen
The Broncos had seen Manning retire two years earlier in 2016, fresh off the franchise winning Super Bowl 50 over the Panthers. That same year, they drafted QB bust Paxton Lynch No. 26 overall.
But it was evident early that Lynch didn't have the ability, including durabilit,y to be the Broncos' reliable starting QB. That was clear when 2015 seventh-rounder Trevor Siemian had to start 14 games in '16 and 10 more games in '17.
There was plenty of evidence Lynch wasn't the answer. In the 2018 offseason, the Broncos cleaned house at QB, trading Siemian to the Jets, signing Case Keenum to be the new starting option and demoting Lynch, putting him on the verge of his summer release.
Everything pointed to the Broncos needing to draft a QB high in '18. Vice president GM John Elway was enamored with the tough, big-armed and athletic but erratic QB who many compared to his past Hall of Fame self. Their Super Bowl-winning coach Gary Kubiak got a favorable look at Allen during the latter's pro day at Wyoming while serving as the Broncos' senior personnel
Outside a late rumor that Allen was in play at No. 1 for the Browns over Mayfield, Darnold, Allen, despite his massive ceiling because of his physical upside, would be the No. 3 QB prospect at best because of legitimate concerns about his college passing inaccuracy.
Much of the pre-draft reporting shared the Broncos' affinity for Allen and the likelihood of drafting him. But there was one factor that kept Allen from playing for Elway.
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Why the Broncos didn't draft Josh Allen
If the decision was Elway's alone, he would have locked into taking Allen at No. 5, two spots off from where he went to the Bills. In a January 2026 interview with his former Broncos Hall of Fame tight end, Shannon Sharpe on the "Club Shay Shay" podcast, Elway reiterated that "he really liked" Allen, but the snag came in not having full support from the coaching staff, led by defensive-minded head coach Vance Joseph.
Before Joseph was fired after his second season in 2018, his influence played a part in wanting to go defense over offense with that pick. The Broncos instead took former NC State edge rusher Bradley Chubb, who ended up being a two-time Pro Bowler during his five seasons in Denver.
Chubb wasn't a bad pick as he ended up being a key force for the Broncos for a while. But passing on Allen would put the Broncos on a continued post-Manning QB path — including the expensive Russell Wilson disaster — before drafting a potential long-term franchise passer in Bo Nix at No. 12 overall in 2024.
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How the Broncos overcame not drafting Josh Allen
The Broncos won't be spending too much time thinking about what could have been with Allen when they host Allen and the Bills in the 2025-2016 division playoffs. They have a lot of belief in Nix winning another big QB duel at home for Payton and outlasting Allen in the fourth quarter.
It would seem like a few productive sack years from Chubb don't make up for passing on Allen. But the real value of Chubb came when the Broncos traded him to the Dolphins in 2022, getting a 2023 first-rounder and a 2024 fourth-rounder as part of the return.
That first-rounder in '23 was a pick the Dolphins had acquired from the 49ers and ended up being No. 29 overall. The Broncos traded that pick, along with second- and third-round picks to acquire Payton in a trade with the Saints. The fourth-rounder in '24 was used to trade up to get wide receiver Troy Franklin, reuniting him with his college QB Nix.
The Broncos wouldn't have landed Payton without the Chubb pick and the Broncos aren't strong AFC West champions from 2025 without Payton. Without Payton, they also wouldn't have been locked into Nix for their offense, or forget about Joseph's coaching stint and bring him back to lead the defense. Without Franklin, they wouldn't have Nix's key No. 2 Year 2 target.
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Allen has allowed the Bills to be a consistent AFC playoff team and conference contenders since his second season. The Broncos didn't make the playoffs from 2019-2023, looking for their QB answer, but Payton and Nix have led them to back-to-back trips and now the AFC's best record and top seed at 14-3.
The Broncos were routed by the Bills, 31-7 in last year's AFC wild-card round. The Broncos are plenty motivated to win and have Nix beat Allen without needing to think again about what could have been with Allen.