John Mateer 2026 NFL Draft scouting report: How real is the Oklahoma quarterback's rise?

Anthony Licciardi

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John Mateer 2026 NFL Draft scouting report: How real is the Oklahoma quarterback's rise? image

Party like it's 2017. The Oklahoma Sooners are dangerous, and they have a small, playmaking passer to thank for their offensive success.

Quarterback John Mateer was one of the transfer portal's top quarterbacks this offseason. Landing in the SEC gave him the supporting cast and level of competition to potentially raise his profile. So far, all he's done is win, taking care of Illinois State in his debut before upsetting a ranked Michigan team in Week 2.

Wins are nice, but Mateer is flashing the traits required of him to boost his stock ahead of the 2026 NFL Draft. He entered the season outside the first-round radar. In a matter of weeks, Mateer has put himself on the map.

Mateer's strengths could land him in Round 1

The biggest difference between Mateer and his spiritual successor, Baker Mayfield, is the former's mobility. He scampered for over 1,000 yards (when adjusting for sacks) on the ground in 2024 and is well on his way to another run-heavy season this fall.

Notably, Mateer accomplishes this in and out of structure. He's a frequent ball carrier on designed runs and an effective scrambler. Likewise, Mateer does some of his best work out of structure. He thrives amid the chaos, and while that's a treacherous trait to bank on, it offers him a path to upside.

This year, Mateer is improving inside the pocket, too. His poise has improved, allowing him to retain his accuracy with incoming defenders shrinking the pocket. Standing at (approximately) 6'0", 220, keeping composure in muddy pockets is pivotal.

To complement his elite athleticism, Mateer has a good, but not great, arm that he trusts enough to stretch the field. He's accurate with flashes of excellent touch and generally hits his riskier throws outside of structure.

Mateer's proclivity for pandemonium defines his game. However, there is enough within structure -- operating with proper timing and anticipation -- to elicit intangible upside. He isn't an inherently poor decision-maker, nor is he a slow processor.

There is still work to be done

Mateer's performance against Michigan, including 270 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception, was worthy of early-round hype. Against a defense with arguably more talent than the Sooners, he rose to the occasion.

Even so, his tendency to work out of structure before it's necessary is a bit of a red flag. Showing that he can deliver from the pocket is encouraging. He did so in Week 2. But too often, Mateer leaves clean pockets early and puts himself in "backyard football" mode before it's necessary. Perhaps that's a matter of his height impacting how he processes the middle of the field and shrinking pockets.

In either event, Mateer creates pressure for himself. A quarter of his pressures turned into sacks in 2024, making it a mark to watch as he faces SEC competition for the first time.

Staying away from turnovers for long periods of time has proven to be elusive. Becoming more confident in the pocket and trusting the structure of the offense bodes well for that development. Naturally, exposing himself to low-probability plays out of structure lends itself to turnovers, even if he sets himself apart when the play breaks down. Mateer is a difference-maker, but he doesn't change that calculus enough to forgo necessary development on the vast majority of plays that don't end up in highlight reels. 

Given his hot start at Oklahoma, it's hard to rule anything out. Late-college reps are crucial for passing prospects, and he wouldn't be the first passer to end a season far better than he started it. 

Mateer's NFL projection

Mateer entered the season as my QB8 in a promising class, toeing the line between Day 2 and Day 3. He's joined Carson Beck and Aidan Chiles in boosting his stock in the early going, and if the NFL Draft were tomorrow, he'd be much more likely to go in Round 2 than Day 3.

MORE: Ranking the best quarterbacks in the 2026 NFL Draft

With so many quality passers clogging the class, a Mayfield-like rise to the top is inherently unlikely. Round 1, though, remains a real possibility. He won't get there on the back of beating Michigan alone. Fortunately, a schedule with eight more ranked teams (ahead of Week 3) offers plenty of opportunities to prove himself. Games against Texas, Alabama, and LSU are going to put the Sooners and their quarterback to the test. Showing out could pave his path to the first round while putting Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff conversation.

The arrow is certainly pointing up on Mateer. It's important not to overreact to the flurry of early-season stories, but if he was going to take a real step forward, it would look a lot like Week 2.

Oklahoma's got a live one. Mateer has the mobility and the moxie to pull off a run to the first round. Now, it's a matter of making good on his hot start.

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Anthony Licciardi

Anthony Licciardi is a freelance NFL Draft and MLB writer with The Sporting News. He has covered several NFL teams for Athlon Sports and Sports Illustrated’s wire sites. A 2023 Rutgers University graduate, Anthony is usually lost in a spreadsheet or a good book. He also enjoys grabbing coffee, playing with his cats and listening to an elite lineup of podcasts.