Buccaneers playoff picture: Updated chances for Tampa Bay to make 2025 NFL postseason in Week 15

This season has begun to decline for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. After a strong start, many were prepared to consider the Bucs as Super Bowl contenders. Now, heading into Week 15, it's uncertain if they will even make the playoffs. 

The earlier success stemmed from quarterback Baker Mayfield playing at an actual MVP-caliber level. Despite losing his top receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, rookie Emeka Egbuka stepped up. 

Egbuka was unconscious for the first five weeks of the season. During this period, Mayfield targeted him 38 times. With this usage, the wide receiver from Ohio State recorded 25 receptions for 445 yards and five touchdowns. 

Both Mayfield and Egbuka suffered nagging injuries that clearly affected their performance on the field. This might explain the Buccaneers' confusing loss to the New Orleans Saints, who are led by rookie Tyler Shough. With this loss, the Buccaneers are one step closer to being caught by the Carolina Panthers for the NFC South, which, due to their record, is the only realistic chance Tampa Bay has at making the postseason.

In Week 15, the Bucs will host the Atlanta Falcons in an ever-so-crucial NFC South showdown. 

Here is more on the Buccaneers' 2025-26 postseason chances heading into Thursday Night Football.

MORE WEEK 15 NFL:

• NFL power rankings for Week 15
• NFL Week 15 picks, predictions
• NFL Week 15 picks against the spread

Buccaneers playoff picture

As it stands heading into Thursday Night Football, the Bucs hold possession of the No. 4 seed in the NFC Conference. This is primarily due to them leading the NFC South through Week 14 of the season. 

After falling to the Saints, the Panthers have inched their way closer to seizing this spot from Tampa Bay. However, the Bucs not only are in the playoffs, but Next Gen Stats gives them a comfortable 70% chance to make the postseason. 

Tampa Bay needs to win this week to remain the No. 1 team in the NFC South if Carolina wins. A Panthers win, combined with a Bucs loss, would have Carolina jump Tampa Bay for the No. 4 seed in the NFC. 

Here is how the NFC playoff picture looks heading into Thursday Night Football between the Bucs and Falcons. The first four seeds are the division leaders. 

MORE: Updated NFL playoff picture after Week 14 results

NFC South standings

Without an NFC South title, Tampa Bay's chances to make the playoffs are slim. Their 7-6 record would put them as low as No. 9 on the bubble.

Bucs remaining schedule

Tampa Bay has some crucial games coming up that will determine the NFC South champion. The Bucs and Panthers will face off twice in just three weeks. These games are sure to attract the most attention from the Bucs, but the Dolphins have recently been a tough opponent for every NFL team.

Here is a look at Tampa Bay's remaining schedule.