When the Bears landed the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, there was plenty of speculation on what the team would do with the pick. Chicago had just selected Justin Fields two years earlier, and the organization was set on him being their quarterback for the near future.
The class had a number of high-profile quarterbacks expected to be taken off the board first, and there were a number of teams that needed to draft at that position. As a result, the Bears elected to trade down ahead of the draft, giving the Panthers the No. 1 pick in a package that included Carolina's first-round pick in 2024.
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Flash forward to now, and the topic of the No. 1 pick is once again tied to both franchises. Entering Week 10, the Bears and Panthers own two of the worst records in the league, coming in at 2-7 and 1-7, respectively. Playoffs are not in the fold for either organization, which means all eyes are on the 2024 NFL Draft.
With the Bears owning the Panthers' first-round selection in the upcoming draft, it gives Chicago double the chance to land the No. 1 pick. And there is no better way for the Bears to help themselves in the upcoming draft than on Thursday night, when the team hosts the Panthers on "Thursday Night Football."
Both teams are going to be competing to win — tanking never happens in the NFL, right? However, fans may actually be more interested in who comes out on the losing side and how that affects the draft order for 2024.
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NFL Draft order 2024: Who owns the No. 1 pick?
Entering Week 10 of the season, the Cardinals own the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Arizona is the only team with eight losses this season, holding a record of 1-8.
However, right behind them are the Panthers and the Bears. Carolina is 1-7 on the year, with the team already having its bye week in Week 7, and sits with the No. 2 pick that belongs to Chicago. The Bears are one of three teams in the league that are 2-7, along with the Giants and the Patriots, but currently have the No. 3 pick.
Chicago is in a win-win situation. Whichever team loses Thursday means that pick has a higher chance of finishing towards the top of the draft order. Meanwhile, Carolina is left thinking about who it can grab in the second round.
As things stand heading into "Thursday Night Football," Sporting News' projection model is giving the Bears a 31 percent chance to land the No. 1 overall pick (including the Panthers' pick), trailing only the Cardinals, who sit at 41 percent.
If the Bears win:
A win for Chicago over Carolina on Thursday night would mean the Bears improve to 3-7 while the Panthers drop to 1-8.
Chicago's own pick would drop down in the draft order, but a Carolina loss would guarantee that the Bears' draft position would stay at the very lowest in the No. 2 slot. Depending on the result of the Cardinals-Falcons game, that Panthers' pick could end up at No. 1 after Week 10 if the Cards pull off an upset in Kyler Murray's return from a knee injury.
Here's a look at the odds for each team to secure the No. 1 pick in the draft if the Bears win, according to Sporting News' projection model:
| Team | Odds |
| Cardinals | 39% |
| Panthers (Bears pick) | 32% |
| Giants | 13% |
| Patriots | 10% |
| Rams | 2% |
| Bears | 2% |
If the Panthers win
If it's Carolina that is able to secure a victory in Week 9, then the two picks would switch places. The Bears would drop to 2-8, while the Panthers would improve to 2-7, meaning Chicago's own pick would end up higher than the Carolina selection.
The results of the Giants' game against the Cowboys and the Patriots' contest with the Colts would potentially impact the order as well, if either New York or New England lose in Week 10. A Cardinals win would also throw a slight wrench in the order, but that is only good news for the Bears.
Here's a look at the odds for each team to secure the No. 1 pick in the draft if the Panthers win, according to Sporting News' projection model:
| Team | Odds |
| Cardinals | 46% |
| Giants | 15% |
| Bears | 13% |
| Patriots | 11% |
| Panthers (Bears pick) | 10% |
Bears' fans might be hoping to tank overall this season, but there's no doubt it's in Chicago's best interest to win this week. Beat the Panthers and the Bears will have a combined 34 percent chance to secure the No. 1 pick, trailing only Arizona's 39 percent. Lose to the Panthers, however, and the odds drop all the way down to a combined 23 percent chance, with Arizona double that at 46 percent.
Here is the draft order heading into Week 10, according to Tankathon.
| Pick | Team | Record |
| No. 1 | Arizona Cardinals | 1-8 |
| No. 2 | Carolina Panthers (pick traded to Chicago Bears) | 1-7 |
| No. 3 | Chicago Bears | 2-7 |
| No. 4 | New York Giants | 2-7 |
| No. 5 | New England Patriots | 2-7 |
| No. 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 3-6 |
| No. 7 | Green Bay Packers | 3-5 |
| No. 8 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-5 |
| No. 9 | Denver Broncos | 3-5 |
| No. 10 | Tennessee Titans | 3-5 |
| No. 11 | Atlanta Falcons | 4-5 |
| No. 12 | Washington Commanders | 4-5 |
| No. 13 | Indianapolis Colts | 4-5 |
| No. 14 | Las Vegas Raiders | 4-5 |
| No. 15 | Houston Texans (pick traded to Arizona Cardinals) | 4-4 |
| No. 16 | New York Jets | 4-4 |
| No. 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | 4-4 |
| No. 18 | Buffalo Bills | 5-4 |
| No. 19 | New Orleans Saints | 5-4 |
| No. 20 | Minnesota Vikings | 5-4 |
| No. 21 | Dallas Cowboys | 5-3 |
| No. 22 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-3 |
| No. 23 | Cleveland Browns (pick traded to Houston Texans) | 5-3 |
| No. 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5-3 |
| No. 25 | Seattle Seahawks | 5-3 |
| No. 26 | San Francisco 49ers | 5-3 |
| No. 27 | Miami Dolphins | 6-3 |
| No. 28 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6-2 |
| No. 29 | Detroit Lions | 6-2 |
| No. 30 | Baltimore Ravens | 7-2 |
| No. 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7-2 |
| No. 32 | Philadelphia Eagles | 8-1 |
Chicago Bears draft picks
The Bears have six picks in the upcoming NFL Draft, including two in the first round thanks to last year's deal with the Panthers.
Chicago recently dealt its second-round pick to Washington in the deadline trade for defensive end Montez Sweat, and subsequently signed the 27-year-old to a four-year contract extension.
- First-round pick (from Panthers)
- First-round pick
- Third-round pick
- Fourth-round pick
- Fourth-round pick (from Eagles)
- Fifth-round pick