Every year, the football world looks to the next NFL Draft cycle with the hopes of a star-studded quarterback class. When it's time to put those prospects under the microscope, the added scrutiny can highlight flaws and dampen stocks.
There's a reason that 2020-level quarterback classes are rare. And through the third week of the college football season, a once-promising 2026 class has approached a trough. Between injuries and inconsistencies, the vast majority of early-round prospects laid an egg under center on Saturday.
Suddenly, a first round destined to host a half-dozen quarterbacks looks increasingly thin.
Arch Manning, Texas (vs. UTEP)
- 11-of-25, 114 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Manning was supposed to look better in the weeks after his Ohio State introduction. Against San Jose State and UTEP, he still hasn't looked all that great.
He's still starting slowly and putting the ball in harm's way. Texas doesn't look all that prepared for a looming SEC schedule, much less the College Football Playoff. Physically and mentally, Manning looks worse than he did as a redshirt freshman.
Most importantly, Manning's mechanics are a mess. Perhaps that's the result of an injury the Longhorns are yet to disclose. If so, he shouldn't be out there. In the meantime, Manning's accuracy is in decline, he's leaving velocity on the table, and the layups look rather difficult.
It's safe to assume he's staying in school unless he flips the script on his 2025 campaign.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (vs. Florida)
- 15-of-27, 220 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Nussmeier stood to gain the most from Manning's struggles. The neophyte had the hype, but Nussmeier had the experience and the proof of concept. He is still the most pro-ready passer in the class -- before the snap.
This is the type of interception Garrett Nussmeier routinely threw in big games last year. He's got to work this out of his game. pic.twitter.com/xaxKiRhw5j
— Sam Teets (@Sam_Teets33) September 14, 2025
His intangibles are strong, but Nussmeier has some real worries out of structure. There are still too many reckless, turnover-worthy throws that work against the nuanced reputation he has earned with his relatively stable play. He also fell short of expectations against Louisiana Tech.
If Nussmeier isn't as refined as we think, it's hard to roll the dice on his tools in Round 1.
MORE: Garrett Nussmeier 2026 NFL Draft scouting report: LSU's passer primed to explode
Cade Klubnik, Clemson (at Georgia Tech)
- 15-of-26, 207 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
Klubnik's nightmare senior season continued on Saturday, and an absurdly talented Clemson team has fallen to 1-2. The Tigers quarterback has three touchdowns to as many interceptions through three weeks.
It's been ugly, and despite NFL-level traits, there aren't many reasons to be optimistic. Klubnik is struggling mightily against the blitz in 2025. He had questions to answer about his play under pressure entering the season, and he hasn't passed a pressure-filled test just yet.
Klubnik has to stop himself from falling out of Day 2 before he can march back into Round 1.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina (vs. Vanderbilt)
- 6-of-7, 94 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 interception
Sellers wasn't particularly bad against Vanderbilt. However, he hasn't taken over a game this season, and he left Saturday's game with a concussion.
He's a work-in-progress passer who hasn't taken the leap necessary to be an easy top pick. While there's plenty of time to develop before the end of the season, each passing week is an opportunity for NFL decision-makers to move him up the board. Missing time is crucial, and concussions can linger.
Week 3 wasn't a catastrophe for the South Carolina quarterback. But it hit pause on a critical point in his development, keeping him from gaining ground on other struggling passers.
Drew Allar, Penn State (vs. Villanova)
- 16-of-29, 209 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception
The Nittany Lions dismantled the Wildcats, but it wasn't because of their star quarterbacks. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton carried the load offensively. Penn State ran for over 200 yards, a function of both the backs' performance and the game script.
A look at the Drew Allar interception.
— Avery Hill (@official_aveee) September 13, 2025
Not good... pic.twitter.com/bmwyNkMYqF
Allar obviously played well enough to win, but it was an up-and-down passing performance with a handful of throws that showed that he hasn't taken the intangible leaps NFL teams are waiting for. He'll have a Week 4 bye to prepare for No. 6 Oregon and the looming slate of Big Ten teams.
Is there any hope for this class?
It's worth remembering the futility of small sample sizes and how reasonable overreactions can feel in the moment. A poor week in September isn't taking anyone off draft boards. There's still plenty of time for each passer to rebound and make big plays in statement games against conference foes and playoff opponents.
However, this isn't quite the shiny class promised after a cloudy 2025 cycle. Frankly, some of these stocks are bound to dip, perhaps further than they already have. Manning could very well stay in school, as could Sellers, who has multiple years of eligibility remaining. There's a real chance the 2026 crop of quarterbacks looks completely different than our way-too-early mock drafts suggested.
Subsequently, the passers who have stood out this season deserve recognition. There is similar volatility in the sample size, but the arrow is pointing up on John Mateer, and Carson Beck is checking all the boxes he needs in Miami. Fernando Mendoza has continued to play well, and Sam Leavitt is putting together quite the highlight reel.
This cycle may be saved by later breakouts, too. Dante Moore has emerged as a star in Eugene. His 2025 campaign will be monitored closely, as will veteran passers like Rocco Becht, Ty Simpson, and others.
Ultimately, it's early, and a soft September doesn't have to set the tone for what this class looks like in the spring. Until those leaps are made, though, NFL teams will have to reckon with a quarterback class that isn't quite what it was chalked up to be.
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