The 2025-26 season is set to be a year of change. Injuries to Tyrese Haliburton and Jayson Tatum have made the East open for the taking. Every contender in the East added some new element, whether that be Desmond Bane for the Magic, coach Mike Brown for the Knicks, Kristaps Porzingis for the Hawks, or a revamped bench for the Pistons.
Out West, the Lakers and Warriors will have a full season to see how last year's trade acquisitions of Luka Doncic and Jimmy Butler can fare with retooled rosters. Kevin Durant instantly makes the Rockets one of the most intriguing teams in the league. The Nuggets added much-needed depth, as did the Clippers.
All of those teams tried to get better in order to close the gap between themselves and the Thunder, who outscored teams by a record-setting 1,055 points during last year's regular season.
How will all of these teams perform? Here are my predictions for final regular season standings, Finals picks, and the eventual 2026 champion.
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NBA predictions 2025-26
Eastern Conference standings, playoff teams
- Cleveland Cavaliers
- Orlando Magic
- New York Knicks
- Atlanta Hawks
- Detroit Pistons
- Milwaukee Bucks
- Indiana Pacers*
- Toronto Raptors*
- Philadelphia 76ers*
- Miami Heat*
- Boston Celtics
- Chicago Bulls
- Charlotte Hornets
- Washington Wizards
- Brooklyn Nets
*Play-In Tournament
The one thing that we know about the Eastern Conference is that the Cavs are going to be somewhere near the top of it. The core of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, and Evan Mobley have won 51, 48, and 64 games over the past three regular seasons.
The Cavs do have some new wrinkles this year. They lost a key piece in Ty Jerome to free agency. They also traded Isaac Okoro for Lonzo Ball. Ball probably won't play in a ton of games given health issues throughout his career. And Max Strus will be out for the first few months. Despite that injury and some depth concerns on the wing, nobody else is challenging Cleveland during the regular season.
The race for the No. 2 team in the East is wide open. The Magic, Knicks, Hawks, and Pistons are all front-runners for that spot.
Orlando took a big swing in adding Bane to shore up an offense that hasn't been above league-average since Stan Van Gundy was coaching Dwight Howard in 2011. He's the volume 3-point shooter and ball-handler that they've been missing, and they already have a stellar defense. The Magic are my pick to be No. 2.
The Knicks are Vegas' pick to be the second-best team in the East. I'm not buying it. Replacing Tom Thibodeau with Mike Brown should be a downgrade in the regular season, where Thibs treated a March game against the Wizards with the same urgency as Game 7 of the NBA Finals.
The Hawks are the popular riser pick in the East. They had the best offseason of anyone, adding Kristaps Porzingis and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to their rotation. The return of Jalen Johnson, who is an All-Star talent, gives them one of the better starting fives in the conference.
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The Pistons were the feel-good story of last season. Cade Cunningham has emerged as a top 15 player. He and the rest of their core should improve with age. Caris LeVert provides a good scoring punch, and they added one of the better movement shooters in the league in Duncan Robinson.
The rest of the East is harder to pin down. The Pacers struggled when Haliburton was out or playing through injury last season. This should be a gap year for them. The same goes for the Celtics, who have a bottom-three frontcourt rotation in the league.
It's impossible to predict the Sixers given Joel Embiid's health and Paul George falling off a cliff last season. A foot surgery that will keep Tyler Herro out for the beginning of the season is going to be trouble for a Miami offense that was already struggling to score after trading away Jimmy Butler last season. Both should still have enough talent to sneak into the Play-In Tournament.
The Raptors should be a much better team after finishing with only 30 wins last year. They were doomed by injuries and an 8-31 start last season that made them pivot to tanking. There is real talent on this roster though, and they should improve by 10 or more wins this year.
I'm lower on the Bulls than consensus. Their fast-paced offense caught teams off guard last season. Opponents will be much more prepared, and the rest of the league is pivoting towards that style. It won't provide the same edge that it did last year.
The Hornets, Wizards, and Nets round out the bottom of the conference. All three are still in the early stages of a rebuild and face glaring holes in their young rosters.
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Western Conference standings, playoff teams
- Oklahoma City Thunder
- Denver Nuggets
- Minnesota Timberwolves
- Los Angeles Lakers
- Houston Rockets
- Golden State Warriors
- Los Angeles Clippers*
- San Antonio Spurs*
- Dallas Mavericks*
- Memphis Grizzlies*
- New Orleans Pelicans
- Portland Trail Blazers
- Sacramento Kings
- Phoenix Suns
- Utah Jazz
*Play-In Tournament
The Thunder have to go in as the prohibitive title favorite after winning it all last year and bringing back their entire rotation. They were the league's best defense, and there's no reason why that should change next season. They also won their conference by 16 games. They can afford a significant drop off and still retain the No. 1 seed again.
The Nos. 2-7 spots in the West will be a bloodbath, as it has been for the past several seasons. The Nuggets, Rockets, Lakers, Wolves, Warriors, and Clippers are all in my second tier of teams.
The Nuggets finished in a three-way tie for third place last year with 50 wins. They're a better team now. Cam Johnson is a better two-way player than the departed Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown is back, and the team finally has a capable backup center in Jonas Valanciunas. Nikola Jokic should easily carry this group to the mid 50's in wins.
The Wolves found ways to win towards the end of their season, playing more through Julius Randle alongside Anthony Edwards. They still need better point guard play — Mike Conley is slowing down entering his age 38 season, and Rob Dillingham doesn't quite look ready for a starting role. Ant will keep their floor high, but the loss of a very important depth piece in Alexander-Walker will sting.
The Lakers are going to be a great team. A motivated Luka Doncic is going to be scary for the rest of the league, LeBron James is still a top 15 player (although his sciatica is a concern), and Deandre Ayton has a simple role that he should be able to fill as a lob threat, screener, and defender. Marcus Smart can still defend, and he gives the team a different look for when talented scorer Austin Reaves comes out of games.
I'm lower on the Rockets than most. Durant will give them the go-to scorer that they desperately needed last season, and their defense should remain elite. But Fred VanVleet's ACL injury is a devastating blow, and the team is short on reliable ballhandlers.
The Warriors looked like one of the best teams in the league in games that Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler played together, going 22-5 in those contests. They have an old roster though, made even older by new acquisition Al Horford. Health is going to be the big issue.
The Clippers are one of the most talented groups on paper among this tier. Chris Paul, Bradley Beal, John Collins, and Brook Lopez are solid vets who will make this team better. They should remain an elite defense under assistant coach Jeff Van Gundy. The distractions around the team from Kawhi Leonard's contract scandal are going to linger for a while though. It may be tough to tune out the noise.
The next tier of teams are still good enough to challenge for a top seed if everything breaks right. More likely, they'll be in the bottom of the playoff standings.
Victor Wembanyama should be a top five player in the league as soon as this upcoming year. And the Spurs have some interesting pieces alongside him, De'Aaron Fox chief among them. The big question for this team though is how they cobble together enough shooting to compete with other high octane offenses. Harrison Barnes and Julian Champagnie were the only rotation players to shoot better than 37 percent from deep last season.
The Mavs have pieces too. But Kyrie Irving will be out most if not all of the year, and the point guard play behind him is not good. Anthony Davis' health is always a worry. Cooper Flagg is going to have to do a lot as a rookie. As the youngest player in his class, he might not be ready for that role quite yet.
The Grizzlies took a clear step back by trading Bane away for draft picks. They still have Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., which will keep their floor at around.500. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope could have a bounce back year after losing his 3-point touch in Orlando.
The Pelicans and Blazers are wildcards in the conference. They're among the harder teams to project.
The Pelicans always go as Zion Williamson goes, which in previous years has meant not very well. They don't have much at center, but they do have good guard depth. Dejounte Murray could be pushed to the bench when he returns from his Achilles injury.
The Blazers looked like they were taking a step forward last season. Jrue Holiday gives them toughness and veteran leadership. They still need to figure out what they have in young players like Scoot Henderson, Donovan Clingan, and Yang Hansen. They're a good team, but those developmental minutes will keep them out of the top of the West.
The Kings have good scorers in DeMar DeRozan, Domantas Sabonis, and Zach LaVine, the latter of whom quietly finished No. 2 in the league in 3-point percentage last season. The pieces don't fit though, and this is a team that is in desperate need of a retool.
The Suns and Jazz bring up the rear of the conference. Phoenix is clearly pressing the reset button after moving on from Beal and Durant. The Jazz may be trading their own star. Lauri Markkanen is one of the hottest names in the trade market.
Eastern Conference champion: Cavs
The Cavs disappointed in last year's playoffs, losing in five games to the Pacers in the second round. That performance doesn't look quite as bad after the Pacers went to seven games in the Finals.
Cleveland has experienced some bad health luck in the postseason. If they can avoid that again, the East should be theirs. They have continuity, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Evan Mobley, and clutch scoring in Donovan Mitchell. Ball is the perfect ceiling raiser if he can take care of his body. And they have two first-round draft picks to continue to upgrade this team mid-season.
Nobody is going to believe in the Cavs until they actually prove that they can maintain their regular season success through the postseason. After numerous failures, this should be their year.
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Western Conference champion: Thunder
The Thunder are going to have a much tougher path than the Cavs. The West has at least three legitimate title contenders in Oklahoma City, Houston, and Denver. It would not be a shock to see the Lakers, Wolves, or Warriors come out of the West either.
Oklahoma City should make it through despite those challenges. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been top five in MVP voting over the past three seasons, winning the award last year. At age 27, he is right in his prime.
The rest of the Thunder's core is on an upward trajectory. Jalen Williams was battling a torn ligament in his right wrist throughout the playoffs and was still a good enough No. 2 for the Thunder to win it all. If he's at full health, then Oklahoma City is even more dangerous.
Beyond Williams, the team has tremendous depth that allows creative coach Mark Daigneault to play a variety of styles to combat the different types of opponents that they will face throughout the playoffs. This team has no major weaknesses.
NBA champion: Thunder
If the Thunder make it out of the West again, then there's not really a team in the East that can challenge them.
This Thunder team was absolutely dominant against the East last season, going 29-1 during the regular season and winning those games by an average of 17.6 points (no, that is not a typo). Their one loss did come against the Cavs in one of the marquee games of the regular season. But it was in a game that Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso both missed.
The Thunder blew the Cavs out a week later, making up for that loss. Their stifling defense forced Cleveland into 21 turnovers, and Donovan Mitchell was mostly neutralized. Oklahoma City is uniquely positioned with several elite point-of-attack defenders that would give Mitchell and Darius Garland real issues in a Finals matchup.
The Pacers did push the Thunder to seven games in last year's Finals by utilizing their depth and breakneck speed. There are similarities between how Cleveland and Indiana play. But this should be a better, more seasoned Thunder team. They're not a lock to win it all, but they should be a heavy favorite over anyone else for the foreseeable future.