With the Formula 1 summer break concluding, the dominant narrative of the 2025 season remains McLaren's charge towards the Constructors' Championship.
After an incredible first half of the year, the team from Woking holds a commanding lead, leaving fans to wonder not if, but when they will secure the title
The Current State of Play
After 14 of the 24 races, McLaren sits atop the Constructors' standings with a staggering 559 points.
Their closest rival, Ferrari, is a distant second with 260 points, representing a colossal 299-point lead.
Mercedes is a further 24 points behind in third, with Red Bull in fourth on 194 points.
The sheer size of this lead means McLaren's title win is now a matter of mathematics.
📲 Follow The Sporting News on WhatsApp
There are 10 Grands Prix and three Sprint events still to run.
With a maximum of 43 points available in a Grand Prix and 15 in a Sprint, a total of 475 points are still on the table for any one team.
The Earliest Possible Victory
In a scenario where McLaren continues their perfect run and their closest challengers score no points, they could mathematically seal the championship as early as the Singapore Grand Prix on October 5th.
This would require McLaren to gain 177 points over the next four races (Dutch GP, Italian GP, Azerbaijan GP, Singapore GP).
That would give them an unassailable lead.
While this scenario is highly improbable, the possibility of a four-race sweep is a testament to McLaren's dominance.
Realistic Scenarios for Victory
Realistically, McLaren will have to wait a little longer.
Their form suggests they will continue to win the majority of races, but their rivals, Ferrari and Mercedes, are still scoring points.
In a more plausible scenario, where McLaren continues to score at a similar rate to the first half of the season, and their rivals score at a similar rate, McLaren could win the championship at the United States Grand Prix on October 19th, with four races to spare.
In a much tighter scenario, where the championship battle goes down to the wire, McLaren would likely win the championship at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix on December 7th, with the final race of the season.
However, with a 299-point lead already, this scenario seems very unlikely.