How one team's performance swing typified F1's current unpredictability

Ben McCarthy

How one team's performance swing typified F1's current unpredictability image

08182025

A week beforehand, the green machine of the Aston Martin seeped and soured. It was the only car not to score points across the Belgian Grand Prix weekend.

The Spa track, the longest of the season at 4.4 miles long, represents a big compromise between required downforce levels and straight-line speed. These sorts of tracks, which places emphasis on aero efficiency, is where the Aston struggles.

So often, not just this year but in this rules cycle, we have seen Aston’s drivers complaining about their straight-line speed.

Furthermore, at the Spanish Grand Prix, where aero efficiency is not as extreme as Spa but still significant, Alonso took issue with having to race too much through the corners, given that his car was not competitive enough to overtake down the straights.

Yet, at Hungary, Alonso and Stroll qualified fifth and sixth respectively, and finished fifth and seventh. But how can such a big swing be possible?

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The reality of Formula 1 in 2025

These current crop of cars, with the field spread being so close, are incredibly sensitive to track characteristics which can leap a car from the back, right into the heart of the competitive order.

And this is apparent across the field. In Canada, Mercedes had the quickest car: George Russell took pole and won the race. It thrived on the low-energy surface and track layout that the Circuit Giles Villeneuve represents.

But a fortnight later, at the abrasive surface, hot temperatures and long-winding corners of the Red Bull Ring, Russell finished one minute behind the race winner. Albeit, the margin was somewhat amplified by setup errors. 

Cars being more suited to some tracks, rather than others, is a historic trait within Formula 1. If a car has certain strengths, the layout of the circuit and certain conditions will aid its progress more.

Throughout the early years of the V6 turbo-hybrid era, Mercedes were more dominant than usual at power-sensitive circuits, where you are on the throttle for longer. But at less power-sensitive circuits, where you are on the throttle less, the competition grew.

George Russell Mercedes F1 Canada 2025

George Russell has earned Mercedes' only win of 2025, so far

Even McLaren have been both a victim and winner of this. At tracks where management of the rear tyres becomes critical, at tracks dominated by long medium-speed corners, they are dominant. Like the Austrian and Hungarian Grand Prix.

But as soon as the radius of those corners lessen, the temperatures drop and other variables limit their advantage, their dominance is not as it once was.

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Ben McCarthy

Ben McCarthy is a freelance sports journalist, commentator and broadcaster. Having specialised his focus on football and Formula One, he has striven to share and celebrate the successes of both mainstream and local teams and athletes. Thanks to his work at the Colchester Gazette, Hospital Radio Chelmsford, BBC Essex and National League TV, he has established an appreciation for the modern-day rigours of sports journalism and broadcasting.