With three matches left in the 2026 World Cup UEFA qualifying cycle, Wales find themselves in a promising yet complicated position in a highly competitive Group J.
Craig Bellamy's side sit third in the standings before their match against Belgium, outside the all-important top two spots, but they still have everything in front of them and control their own destiny when it comes to reaching next year's finals.
After qualifying for the 2022 tournament, their first World Cup appearance since 1958, Wales fans are hungry for more and can taste a spot in the expanded 2026 field, which will feature 48 teams for the first time in the competition's history.
The Sporting News brings you all you need to know about what Wales must do to reach the tournament in the United States, Canada, and Mexico next summer.
MORE: All the teams to have qualified so far for the 2026 World Cup
What do Wales need to qualify for World Cup 2026?
The first-place finisher in each group earns automatic passage to the World Cup, while the second-place team secures a place in the UEFA playoffs, where 16 teams will contest mini-knockout brackets for four more World Cup places.
To qualify automatically for next year's final tournament, Wales need to overtake the two teams above them in the standings and finish top of the group.
It's a very tall task, but thanks to the fact they have remaining fixtures against both Belgium and North Macedonia, who are in first and second respectively, they control their own destiny — an envious position in which to be.
The boon for Wales is that North Macedonia, who sit in first coming into the matches on October 13, have played one more game than the two sides below them. They also have a remaining match against group Liechtenstein, who have yet to win a single game and sport a goal difference of minus 23. That could be an opportunity to run up the score and gain a goal-difference advantage, although Belgium have a fixture remaining against Liechtenstein as well.
MORE: All qualifying scenarios for every nation that can clinch a World Cup spot this month
Wales remaining World Cup qualifying matches
Monday, October 13:
North Macedonia vs. Kazakhstan
Wales vs. Belgium
Saturday, November 15:
Liechtenstein vs. Wales
Kazakhstan vs. Belgium
Tuesday, November 18:
Belgium vs. Liechtenstein
Wales vs. North Macedonia
MORE: Updated group tables for UEFA's World Cup qualifying section
Wales World Cup 2026 qualifying permutations
Here are the permutations for Wales in their final three World Cup qualifying matches:
- If Wales defeat Belgium and Liechtenstein, they would simply need a point against North Macedonia on the final day to be guaranteed to finish top of Group J and qualify for the World Cup, regardless of other results in the group.
- If Wales draw with Belgium, they would need to beat the point totals of both North Macedonia and Belgium over the final two fixtures to have a shot at qualifying in any capacity.
- If Wales lose the game against Belgium, they would need to beat Liechtenstein and North Macedonia to finish at least second. They would not be able to finish top unless Belgium dropped points over the final matches.
- If North Macedonia drop points vs. Kazakhstan, a win against either Belgium or Liechtenstein would leave Wales in control of their own destiny heading into the final round of games.
- If Wales lose to both North Macedonia and Belgium, they would be eliminated from World Cup contention regardless of their result against Liechtenstein.
What North Macedonia vs. Kazakhstan result means for Wales
Group J leaders North Macedonia have played an extra game compared to Belgium and Wales, meaning they have just one competitive fixture remaining in the November international break, while the other two nations have two left.
It's important to remember that the final qualifying match for North Macedonia is against Wales.
Kazakhstan stealing points off North Macedonia would be a massive result for Wales, probably the most helpful of any excluding their own games.
- If North Macedonia defeat Kazakhstan, it would leave them top of Group J at the end of the October international break regardless of other results. Wales would need to make up a five-point deficit over their final three matches if they lose to Belgium and North Macedonia win.
- If North Macedonia draw with Kazakhstan, Wales could go level on points with them with a victory over Belgium.
- If North Macedonia lose to Kazakhstan, Wales could jump them with any win prior to their key clash with the Balkan natikon on November 18.