As the 2022/23 Premier League season entered its final day, the fight to secure top-flight survival went all the way to the wire.
Only one team was confirmed to be relegated at the time, as last-placed Southampton had been condemned to the Championship in 2023/24. Four other teams were in a battle to remain in the Premier League and avoid the final two trap doors.
Leicester City were relegated despite beating West Ham because Everton edged past Bournemouth to secure safety.
Leeds United went down with a whimper, suffering a 4-1 thrashing at home to Tottenham. Bournemouth, West Ham and Nottingham Forest had already done enough to secure safety.
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Premier League relegation odds 2022/23
Here's how the projections by FiveThirtyEight saw each club's chances of slipping through the trap door before the final day.
The data correctly suggested that the teams currently in the bottom three were destined to go down – although Leicester could not have done any more than winning on the last day.
The Foxes were predicted to have an 84% likelihood of relegation, alongside Leeds on 64%, while Everton (24%) were thought to be near safety.
Premier League table: The bottom four
*How the standings looked on Saturday, May 27, 2023. Relegation probability via FiveThirtyEight.
| Pos | Team | Points | Matches Played | Goals Scored | Goal Difference | Next Match | Relegation probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17. | Everton | 33 | 37 | 33 | -24 | vs. BOU, May 28 | 23% |
| 18. | Leicester City | 31 | 37 | 49 | -18 | vs. WHU, May 28 | 82% |
| 19. | Leeds United | 31 | 37 | 47 | -27 | vs. TOT, May 28 | 95% |
| 20. | Southampton - R | 24 | 37 | 32 | -37 | vs. LIV, May 28 | — |
Premier League latest relegation odds 2022/23
Here's how the relegation odds looked at the various sportsbooks around the world before the final games began.
| USA (BetMGM) | UK (Sky Bet) | Australia (Neds) | |
| Leeds United | -3000 | 1/33 | 1.03 |
| Everton | +300 | 10/3 | 4.00 |
| Leicester City | -700 | 1/7 | 1.14 |