England World Cup draw scenarios 2026: Best and worst case scenario group for Three Lions

England romped to qualification for World Cup 2026 with eight wins out of eight in their UEFA qualifying group.

Thomas Tuchel's side are also one of the seeded Pot 1 teams for the December 5 draw in Washington, D.C. This should grant the Three Lions a favourable route to the knockout stages as they chase a first World Cup triumph since 1966

However, there are a few dangers lurking. Allow us to walk you through the best- and worst-case scenarios for the quest to end 60 years of hurt.

MORE: Complete breakdown of how the World Cup draw works

Best-case scenario for England at World Cup draw

The four pots for the World Cup draw are based on FIFA rankings, with the exception of co-hosts Canada, Mexico and the United States all being placed in Pot 1. 

It means England cannot play holders Argentina and fellow heavyweights Brazil, Spain, France and Germany until the knockout stages. In fact, the Three Lions cannot face France until potentially the final, such is the way FIFA has structured the bracket to keep the top-ranked sides relatively separate.

Croatia (10th) are the highest-ranked team England can face, but there can be no more than two UEFA teams in each group. There will be 16 UEFA nations overall once March's playoff round is complete (more on that later), and all other confederations can only have one representative in each group.

MORE: Breaking down the pots for the 2026 World Cup draw

Favourable outcome 1: Lowest-ranked teams

Let's call this the Rugby Union Autumn Internationals group. Playing New Zealand, South Africa and Australia has generally represented the pinnacle of the 15-man code, but this Southern Hemisphere assortment — taking the lowest-ranked countries from each pot — would represent easy pickings for Tuchel's men, without a UEFA or CONMEBOL nation in sight.

Favourable outcome 2: Lowest-ranked CONMEBOL and UEFA qualifiers, intercontinental playoff winner

Every previous World Cup winner has come from Europe or South America, so it figures that those continents are where a lot of the danger lies.

Yes, perhaps we're being a bit provocative by suggesting old enemy Scotland would represent a soft draw for England. Anyone who witnessed the 90 minutes of goalless toil at Euro 2020 would gladly never cast eyes on this matchup ever again. But the numbers don't lie, with Steve Clarke's team the lowest-ranked European qualifier prior to the completion of the March 2026 playoff round.

Ecuador are the best-case scenario from Pot 2 if England must face a CONMEBOL nation. That would rule out potential intercontinental playoff Path 2 winners Bolivia. In Path 1, New Caledonia (149th) are the lowest-ranked side with a remaining shot at making the finals.

Worst-case scenario for England at World Cup draw

While drawing either of the intercontinental playoff winners would be broadly welcomed, the four UEFA playoff winners lurking in Pot 4 are best avoided.

The most dangerous lurker of all is Italy: the four-time world champions and 12th-ranked team in the world. If Gennaro Gattuso's men get past Northern Ireland and then Wales or Bosnia-Herzegovina in their March playoff path, they will be an unwelcome addition to any group.

Unfavourable outcome 1: 2014 revisited, plus Salah

England crashed out at the group stage of the 2014 World Cup after being paired with Italy and Uruguay, losing to both. How about those two again, plus Egypt and Mohamed Salah with a point to prove after a tricky season at Liverpool? Yikes.

Unfavourable outcome 2: Haaland and the high-rankers

Norway are back at the World Cup after a 28-year absence and with arguably their greatest ever generation of talent, led by the formidable Erling Haaland. Facing the most prolific striker in world football feels like something you'd rather avoid.

Drawing Norway from Pot 3 and the highest-ranked CONMEBOL side in Pot 2, Colombia, would feel like a dire combination.

Tournament debutants Jordan have the highest ranking in Pot 4, but Ghana — complete with the attacking talents of Mohammed Kudus and Antoine Semenyo — feel like the toughest confirmed participant.

When is the World Cup draw 2026?

The FIFA World Cup draw for the 2026 tournament is being conducted on December 5, 2025 at 12 p.m. ET. It will be held at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C.

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