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Dom Farrell's cricket betting tips: Australia vs. England prediction, odds and best bets for first Ashes Test

Dom Farrell

Dom Farrell's cricket betting tips: Australia vs. England prediction, odds and best bets for first Ashes Test image

The time for talking is over.

Steve Harmison slinging it all the way down to second slip. Rory Burns walking across his crease to lose his leg stump. Zak Crawley slapping it through the covers. The Ashes brings drama from the first ball. Are you excited to do this all again?!

The time difference in Perth means fewer England fans are likely to stay up for the first ball of the 2025/26 Ashes at around 2:30 a.m. On Friday. Maybe it's just as well.

As always in Ashes cricket, it's the hope that kills. And this Ben Stokes-led, Brendon McCullum-coached side head to Australia in better shape than any England squad since Andrew Strauss' successful expedition in 2010/11.

Of course, England have won precisely none of their 15 Tests in Australia since then, in fact their overall record this century is dismal with just four Test wins in the last 30. On the other hand, Australia's two best fast bowlers – one of them their captain – are out of the game at Optus Stadium through injury and the hosts have been forced to pick two debutants in their starting XI.

So is your urn half empty or half full?

Australia vs. England 1st Test Betting Odds

Australia are the narrow 3/4 favourites to win the first test in Perth, while England are out at 6/4. A draw comes in at 13/1. You can follow the live betting odds for the series winner market below. How will these odds change after the first day in Perth?

MORE: All you need to know about The Ashes | When did England last win in Australia?

Australia vs. England 1st Test Prediction

As outlined above, England's record in Australia is awful. England record in Perth, typically being railroaded on the WACA's speedtrap and not at Optus Stadium, is absolutely awful. 

And yet, here they are heading into the first game of the five-match series in hostile territory in something close to a must-win situation. Or, at best, a win-or-else situation.

The main reason for this is captain Australia captain Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood being out injured. They are two of the very best in the business and their absence is an opportunity England must grasp. Scott Boland and debutant Brendan Doggett are fine replacements in Australian conditions and are expected to enjoy a bowler-friendly deck.

A few eyebrows have been raised by the very green appearance of the playing surface in Perth in the days prior to the first Test. The not-so-subtle motivation seems to be that England's aggressive batting style will be brought crashing down by lateral movement.

The Perth Stadium pitch curator, Isaac McDonald, has insisted that the 'West Test' is all about 'pace and bounce'. Whether or not that is further Australian mind games to sway the England selection dilemma of five seamers or four plus Shoaib Bashir remains to be seen, though.

However, the flimsy nature of Australia's top order including rookie opener Jake Weatherald means this feels like a dangerous curation game to play.

MORE: Joe Root's record in Australia: Latest odds as star batsman targets maiden century in the Ashes

Much has been made of the express pace in England's ranks. Gus Atkinson, Brydon Carse and Josh Tongue have all clocked over 90 mph in Tests. When Mark Wood and Jofra Archer hit a rhythm, they can go some way in excess.

Pace for touring bowlers in Australia can be a double-edged sword. Plenty of English seamers in years gone by have been seduced by the bounce and carry on offer from Australian pitches. They respond by banging in short-length dross that is flayed to all parts.

Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum

Green grass on the wicket should be more than enough to encourage a bowler of Archer's supreme skill and pacemen reared in English conditions to hit their lengths and reap rewards.

There was little to read into England's warm-up match against England Lions at Lilac Hill, although Ollie Pope's runs were encouraging. But Stokes has arrived in Australia looking like a man on a mission. His teams tend to start series well. Sustaining those performances at such high intensity over five matches is a different matter entirely.

Ben Stokes' side have pulled off impressive 1st Test victories in explosive series' in recent times, none more so than a remarkable turnaround to defeat India in Hyderabad back in 2024.

The tip is for a fired-up England — a sharp contrast to the Ashes tourists of the past decade — to get the job done in Perth, ideally chasing successfully in a low-scoring game after if Stokes calls correctly. What that would mean for the series as a whole is anyone's guess. If they fluff their lines first up and Australia take the lead, this could get very ugly, very quickly all over again.

1st Ashes Test prediction: England win

Staff Writer