It was supposed to be different this time.
England headed to Australia with more enthusiasm over their Ashes series chances than at any time since Andrew Strauss' side claimed the urn away from home with their historic victory in 2010/11.
And yet, as was the case in 2013/14, 2017/18 and 2021/22, the tourists are facing the very real prospect of going 3-0 down in three Tests, surrendering the series at the earliest possible opportunity.
Ben Stokes' team have come in for sustained criticism, having played poorly ever since a superb bowling performance on day one in Perth – fine work that was soon undone by a hideously naive batting performance.
Injudicious shot selection was on display once again as England were walloped in the day-night Test in Brisbane. Joe Root's superb first-innings century stood as the only thing to recommend about the performance until Will Jacks and captain Stokes located some overdue but ultimately futile resilience on day four.
Then we have to consider the facts that Australia will be closer to full strength this time, England have suffered an injury setback and appear to have scant faith in their backup options.
The picture is bleak. Stokes and head coach Brendan McCullum have always made a point of backing their side to push for victory in any situation, but circumstances appear to have run beyond their control Down Under. Any sort of comeback from here would be incredible.
Australia vs. England Odds: 3rd Test Betting
- Australia to Win: (8/15 Betfair)
- England to Win: (9/4 Sky Bet)
- Match Drawn: (12/1 AK Bets)
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Australia vs. England 3rd Test Prediction
Australia are set to welcome back captain Pat Cummins and veteran spinner Nathan Lyon, bolstering a bowling attack has brought England to their knees.
Only Root averages over 30 among England batters. It doesn't feel like a great equation to add 871 Australian Test wickets to. It's a slight surprise to see McCullum and Stokes sticking with their embattled top seven. Jacob Bethall's 71 for England Lions against Australia A has not done enough to press his case.
Bethall's left-arm spin could also have been useful at the Adelaide Oval, which traditionally takes turn as matches progress. However, despite being a key part of the Stokes project – groomed for a role in Australia on account of the bounce he can generate from a high release point – Shoaib Bashir has essentially rendered himself unselectable.
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Jacks, with some help from Root, will therefore take care of spin duties, while Josh Tongue replaces Gus Atkinson in the seam attack as England's only change. Tongue's extra pace should slightly soften the blow of losing Mark Wood to his latest knee injury. The Nottinghamshire seamer's natural fuller length, previous success against Steve Smith and propensity to rattle through tailenders are all reasons for England fans to be buoyed by his inclusion.
Indeed, there are legitimate reasons to expect a better and more competitive England display. Adelaide lacks the steepling bounce of Perth and Brisbane that so befuddled visiting batters determined to drive on the up despite the obvious and frequently realised risks.
A slower and lower surface — in relative, Australian terms; this is not Hyderabad – should play to England's strengths with the bat. Harry Brook talking about milking singles rather that trying to smash the cover off every delivery during his pre-match media duties was hopefully the overdue sound of the penny dropping.
Brook is still the most likely man to join his fellow Yorkshireman Root in racking up match-shaping totals. Ollie Pope remaining at No. 3 is close to perplexing, but the similarly maligned Zak Crawley showed reasonable form in Brisbane. Opening partner Ben Duckett feels due a score after a couple of starts and receiving a couple of very good balls.
The problem is that none of this is ultimately enough to tip a bedraggled England side to overcome an Australia with blood in their nostrils. You can't pin the sins of previous failures on this team, but England's last 17 Tests in Australia read won none, drawn two, lost 15. We've not seen enough from Stokes' team in a series that will define them to suggest they have the wherewithal to turn that dismal record around.