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Australia vs. England prediction, odds and best bets for Boxing Day Ashes Test in Melbourne

Dom Farrell

Australia vs. England prediction, odds and best bets for Boxing Day Ashes Test in Melbourne image

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Familiar hand-wringing and recriminations are everywhere you look in English cricket after Ben Stokes' side squandered their shot at the Ashes inside 11 days.

But the post-mortem must be put on hold, at least for a short while. There is the gruesome prospect of more cricket to be played and a whitewash to avoid.

Either side of their historic 2010/11 win Down Under, England lost 5-0 in Australia in 2006/07 and 2013/14. They squeaked out of their 2017/18 and 2021/22 trips with a draw apiece and two 4-0 defeats.

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We are a couple of weeks away from the 15th anniversary of England's most recent Test win in Australia. Stokes' men don't typically draw, either.

As criticism — plenty of it valid and some unquestionably 'Bazball' naysayers gleefully grinding axes  — flies from all directions, a much-maligned team must try to pull something from the fire.

MORE: Australia vs. England lineups, starting XI's for Boxing Day Test

Australia vs. England Odds: 4rd Test Betting

Australia vs. England 4th Test Prediction

Australia captain Pat Cummins returned from injury to help power his side over the line in Adelaide and will now sit out the rest of the series. Veteran spinner Nathan Lyon took key wickets during England's unsuccessful fourth-innings chase but sustained a hamstring injury that will rule him out of Melbourne and Sydney. Josh Hazlewood will not bowl a ball in the entire series.

Once again at the MCG, Mitchell Starc will be the only member of Australia's famous four-pronged attack to feature. This was also the case in Brisbane, while the fast-forwarded Perth Test meant Lyon bowled a grand total of two overs.

It underscores the sense that, for all that they've been well beaten, this has been a gigantic missed opportunity for England. Steve Smith sat out the previous game with vertigo but will return to bolster the batting line-up here.

Jofra Archer Steve Smith

Channel 7 broadcast

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They are likely to be faced with a bedraggled England bowling attack. Jofra Archer has been ruled out with a side strain. Stokes said he under-bowled himself during Australia's second innings at the Adelaide Oval because "I felt like I was going to snap every time I ran after a ball".

Gus Atkinson was dropped after bowling appallingly in Brisbane but now gets another chance, as does Bryson Carse - retained despite bowling appallingly in Brisbane and Adelaide. Mark Wood has gone home injured. Durham seamer Matthew Potts should have had a far more prominent role in this series than a drinks carrier.

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And what about the spin options? Shoaib Bashir was deemed unselectable in Adelaide and has been overlooked again for Melbourne. Will Jacks will again wheel away as both a part-time off-spinner and England's first-choice slow bowler on an Ashes tour.

He might have some assistance from Jacob Bethall, finally selected ahead of Ollie Pope. Ben Duckett keeps his place despite his form falling off a steep cliff. Jamie Smith's second-innings half-century in Adelaide quelled questions over his own performances. He almost had to be picked though because there's no specialist reserve wicketkeeper.

From most angles, the touring party looks like little more than a rabble at this point. Australia have done the job, they will be relatively weaker in Melbourne and England were relatively better in the third Test. Still, you're delving into articles of blind faith to pick them to win a cricket match in these conditions at this point.

4th Ashes Test prediction: Australia win

Editorial Team