Can Jake Paul really beat Anthony Joshua? Full breakdown of bizarre Netflix heavyweight clash

For the second time in as many years, Jake Paul is at the centre of the biggest fight of the year in boxing.

Not the biggest in terms of importance, quality, relevance or any of that good stuff we look for in top-level sport. But measured by eyeballs and interest — morbid or otherwise — Paul vs. Anthony Joshua in Miami on Friday night assumes a similar prominence to the YouTube disruptor's bizarre showdown with Mike Tyson in November 2024.

Paul comfortably outpointed a man 31 years his senior who was almost 22 years removed from his last professional win. A matchup with former middleweight world champion Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Followed, before Paul slated a freakish exhibition clash against former super-featherweight and lightweight ruler Gervonta Davis.

When that bout fell by the wayside on account of the latest domestic violence allegations against Davis, Paul did a complete 180 and decided to go in with a legitimate, active heavyweight who is a former two-time unified world champion and an Olympic gold medalist.

Paul has 12 victories and one defeat in his professional career. But surely — surely — this is a bridge too far.

• READ MORE: Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua expert prediction
• BET NOW: Back Joshua to knock out Paul at 50/1 on Sky Bet

Can Jake Paul really beat Anthony Joshua?

No. No, of course he can't. Not at all. Not a chance. Please, can everyone stop being silly?

Paul has ploughed a decent chunk of his fortune into dedicating himself to the craft of boxing. He trains full-time under the Kronk Gym expertise of Theo Chambers and J'Leon Love.

The 28-year-old's training base is in Puerto Rico, the homeland of women's multi-weight world champion Amanda Serrano, who is the face of Paul's MVP Promotions' ambitious move into female boxing. Theirs is an investment that could have a long-term, transformational impact on the sport.

All of this amounts to a commitment to boxing inside and outside of the ropes, and Paul is making great strides in both departments.

Does this mean he can beat a man who has scaled the top of the heavyweight division as an amateur and a professional and boxed almost every top contender of his era during that time? It's a nonsensical notion.

JAKE PAUL vs. ANTHONY JOSHUA
LIVE only on Netflix
TOMORROW, December 19
8 PM ET | 5 PM PT #JakeJoshua pic.twitter.com/FnnI8y0Rab

— Netflix (@netflix) December 19, 2025

But what about the Andy Ruiz fight? You never know…

Friday's bout in Miami will be Joshua's second fight in the United States, six and a half years on from his nightmarish coming–out party at Madison Square Garden.

Then the undefeated IBF, WBA and WBO heavyweight king, Joshua announced himself to the U.S. Public with a shock defeat to late replacement Andy Ruiz Jr, when he was dropped four times before the fight was stopped in the seventh round.

Even though Joshua regained his belts in an immediate rematch in Saudi Arabia in December 2019, his standing has never really recovered Stateside. The perception of AJ being a glass-jawed Brit has led to his achievements being undersold. It's probably one of the aspects that has persuaded Paul this is a winnable fight.

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Ruiz came into the Joshua rematch comically overweight and has only fought three times since. The Mexican-American is not body beautiful, which meant his taking down of the Adonis-like Joshua captured the imagination.

But bodies don't win fights and never have done. Ruiz was a rank outsider with oddsmakers before he fought Joshua, just like Paul is. But he was a world-class heavyweight who had only lost narrowly once before in a world-title bid against Joseph Parker. He also boasted a magnificent amateur record of 105 wins and five losses and the deceptive hand speed that brought Joshua to his knees.

Paul has none of this. He is not like Andy Ruiz. He would lose heavily to Andy Ruiz, just like he will to Anthony Joshua.

What about the Dubois fight? AJ is shot and chinny with no punch resistance 

The Ruiz loss remained the most painful of Joshua's career until September last year. Compatriot Daniel Dubois floored him in rounds one, three and four before leaving Joshua flat on the canvas, face-first in the fifth at Wembley. Joshua has not fought since and has once again changed trainers, linking up with the team behind Oleksandr Usyk (more on him later).

Paul fancies his chances of testing AJ's whiskers. He has showreel knockouts over Tyron Woodley, an MMA fighter, and Andre August, a club-level boxer who had one six-rounder in the four years prior to facing Paul. 'The Problem Child' has seven career KOs.

Again, these things are not the same. Dubois is an elite heavyweight who has claimed 21 of his 22 victories via knockout. And Joshua got up three times before being flattened as he left himself open attempting an improbable turnaround.

We're not comparing apples and oranges when we talk about Dubois and Paul's knockout power. We're comparing apples to a glass of water or a shoe.

Jake Paul can outbox Anthony Joshua like Usyk

"So the skills are what are going to win this fight, and we have seen that with Usyk when he fought him."

In the crowded field of absurd things said leading into an absurd fight, this from Paul is by far the most stupid. Yeah, just do what Oleksandr Usyk did; you'll be fine. I just watched Tiger Woods' round at the '97 Masters. If I do all that stuff, I'll be pretty good at golf.

Paul seems to genuinely believe he is a superior boxer to Joshua. This can be attributed to a combination of confidence that strays into delusion, his own impressive work ethic and absorbing the aforementioned casual disrespect Joshua endures in parts of the boxing fraternity.

(Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing)

As the smaller man, it makes sense that Paul will try to be elusive, and a 22-foot ring being used suggests this is the gameplan. As Joshua said during fightweek, Paul shapes up well, side-on in the orthodox stance from which he is hard to nail cleanly with a one-two.

But is a man who won a decent handful of the 24 rounds he shared with the masterful Usyk before embedding himself with the Ukrainian's brains trust going to be outboxed by a someone who was outpointed by Tommy Fury? Once again, let's all take a deep breath and think clearly about this.

Jake vs. Joshua is fixed!

Ah, yes. Boxing's completely corrupt. Brown envelopes everywhere.

It's a tale and a conspiracy as long-standing as the grizzled old game itself. Throw in the relentless rumours and suspicions — all completely unfounded — that various Paul fights have been orchestrated to some degree, and several online truth-tellers will explain the fix is in.

At the risk of over-repeating the main question of this article, is it really plausible?

This is an event worth hundreds of millions of dollars, with fortunes being taken by bookmakers. If it was exposed as a cosy WWE-style arrangement, the FBI would have a few observations.

Secondly, what incentive to play possum and pull punches can you give to Joshua? He has an estimated net worth of $150 million dollars on the back of career earnings in the region of $275m. He'll make a presumed $70m more on Friday. What sort of financial sweetener could persuade him to take it easy on Paul when a long-awaited showdown with Tyson Fury and his reputation as a credible heavyweight is on the line?

This also feeds into the fact Joshua has always cared far too much about what other people think. If Paul takes this any further than three rounds, it will be considered a humiliation for AJ. All of the incentives are stacked up for Joshua to take his overmatched motormouth opponent to pieces in brutal and unsparing fashion.

When that happens, the hope is that the ending is quick and clean with no serious injuries sustained by the daredevil Paul. Because if there are, no one will be calling for YouTube to be banned. On a weekend where all involved are merrily making fortunes, boxing cannot be left picking up the tab.

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