The UFC returns to New Jersey on June 7 for UFC 316. The event will see two titles on the line, with the main attraction being Merab Dvalishvili defending the UFC bantamweight title in a rematch against Sean O'Malley.
O'Malley (18-2, 1 NC) had a seven-fight unbeaten streak end at Sphere in September after getting taken down several times against Dvalishvili (19-4). "Suga" has since recovered from an injury he believes affected him on fight night. He's ready to hold gold again.
Dvalishvili beat Umar Nurmagomedov in September to defend the belt and win his 12th straight contest. He avenged O'Malley's win against team-mate Aljamain Sterling, and the Georgian looks to continue his reign at the expense of O'Malley this time.
The co-main event will see Julianna Pena defend the UFC bantamweight title against Kayla Harrison. Winner of The Ultimate Fighter 18, Pena (12-5) shocked the world when she beat Amanda Nunes in 2021 to win gold. After losing the rematch, Pena regained the belt.
Harrison (18-1) is a two-time Olympic gold medalist who dominated while with the PFL. Currently 2-0 in the UFC, Harrison is looking to end Pena's run at the top.
Other fighters on the card include Kelvin Gastelum, Patchy Mix making his UFC debut, Kevin Holland, Joshua Van, Khaos Williams, and more.
With the help of Paddy Power, The Sporting News makes our predictions on the best match-ups at UFC 316.
UFC 316 betting tips, expert picks latest odds and card predictions
All odds are correct at time of publish but subject to change as we get closer to fight night.
Merab Dvalishvili (c) vs. Sean O'Malley 2 for the UFC bantamweight title
Paddy Power make Merab Dvalishvili the 4/11 favourite, while Sean O'Malley is the 2/1 underdog.
Dvalishvili landed six takedowns and 82 significant strikes against O'Malley, the favourite at the time, to win gold. The champion lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute. "The Machine" is just that on the floor, as he averages 5.89 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has landed 29 in his last four fights.
O'Malley became the first Dana White's Contender Series standout to win and defend gold. "Suga" is known for his power, landing 6.70 significant strikes and has a 61% strike accuracy mark. He has landed over 200 significant strikes twice in the octagon.
O'Malley blames an injury for the loss and believes he can do enough to take the champion out this time. However, Dvalishvili is the real deal. He took care of Umar Nurmagomedov in his last fight by landing seven takedowns. O'Malley may be able to land better strikes this time, but Dvalishvili should shrug them off, bury him by the cage, and pick up another win against the former champion.
The Sporting News Prediction: Dvalishvili via decision (8/13)
Julianna Pena (c) vs. Kayla Harrison for the UFC bantamweight title
Kayla Harrison is fancied at a short 1/7 for this one, while Julianna Pena is a 9/2 shot.
Harrison, the two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, has seven wins via submission and six via knockout. The former PFL champion dominated against former champion Holly Holm and overwhelmed Ketlen Vieira. She averages 2.75 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
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Pena lands 3.25 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.81 takedowns landed. The Ultimate Fighter winner is 2-1 in her last three fights and was able to outstrike Amanda Nunes in 2021 for gold.
There's been plenty of bad blood here, with Pena accusing Harrison of taking PEDs. While she can land takedowns, Pena is susceptible to getting dropped, holding a 23% takedown defense mark. Harrison, who may be better at adapting to a situation, can take advantage of that and stop her from gaining any momentum. With improved striking abilities and endurance, Harrison may have an edge here.
The Sporting News prediction: Harrison via TKO in round two (5/1)
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer: Middleweights
Joe Pyfer is the 1/4 favourite for this one, while Kelvin Gastelum is an 11/4 underdog.
Pyfer, a Dana White's Contender Series alum, is 2-1 in his last three fights. He lands 3.72 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.45 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Winner of The Ultimate Fighter 17, Gastelum lands 3.74 significant strikes and averages 1.10 takedowns. He has absorbed 3.48 strikes.
Pyfer can walk towards an opponent and strike them down with ease. He can create openings out of thin air. However, Gastelum has one of the best chins in the business. He hasn't won consecutive fights since 2017-2018, but Gastelum is still a force. Pyfer can easily tire him out with strikes until the bell, but an upset is possible and what The Sporting News predicts.
The Sporting News prediction: Gastelum via split decision (15/2)
Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix: Bantamweights
Patchy Mix is fancied to win this one, and is available at 4/7, while Mario Bautista is an 11/8 shot.
Bautista lands 5.33 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.92 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He has a 33% takedown defense mark. Mix may not have fought in a year, but the former Bellator champion is dangerous. The wrestler has thirteen wins via submission.
Unlike Patricio Freire and Michael Chandler, Mix is entering the octagon in his prime. Bautista, who beat Jose Aldo in his last fight, may try to overwhelm Mix with strikes. Even with a long layoff and the unknown factor, Mix should be able to stop Bautista from gaining momentum, take him down to the floor, and earn a submission win.
The Sporting News prediction: Mix via submission in round two (29.6/1 double)
Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland: Welterweights
Kevin Holland is expected to get the job done here at 4/11 with Paddy Power, while Vicente Luque is 2/1.
Holland lands 4.19 significant strikes per minute and has a 50% strike accuracy mark. Luque, who hasn't won two straight since 2021, lands 5.05 significant strikes and averages 0.99 takedowns landed per 15 minutes.
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It has been said many times: the active Holland is either on another level in the cage or one of the most frustrating fighters out there. He will have the height and reach advantage, but Luque has an edge on the floor. Can Holland's 54% takedown defense nullify Luque's wrestling?
The Sporting News believes Holland can adapt well and force the fight to go the distance.
The Sporting News prediction: Holland via split decision (15/4)
Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs. Joshua Van: Flyweights
Joshua Van is the short-priced 1/7 favourite, while Bruno Silva is 9/2.
Van lands 8.10 significant strikes per minute, landing 342 in his last three fights. He also absorbs 5.24 strikes per minute. "Fearless" averages 1.11 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Silva is coming off a loss where Manel Kape landed triple-digit significant strikes. "Bulldog" lands 3.54 significant strikes and averages 1.92 takedowns.
Van just fought and will be very fresh. Silva could surprise with a knockout finish, but Van via decision is the better play here.
The Sporting News prediction: Van via unanimous decision (1/1)
Azamat Murzakanov vs. Brendson Ribeiro: Light Heavyweights
If you fancy Azamat Murzakanov to get the job done here, he is the 1/6 favourite, while Brendson Ribeiro can be had at 4/1.
Including a run on Dana White's Contender Series, Murzakanov is 5-0 in the octagon. "The Professional," coming off a recent anti-doping ban, lands 4.72 significant strikes per minute and has a 56% strike accuracy mark. Ribeiro lands 3.34 significant strikes and averages 1.07 takedowns.
Despite his hiccups, Murzakanov is a dangerous fighter with power. If the failed tests and suspensions haven't affected his ability, Murzakanov should make a point against Ribeiro.
The Sporting News prediction: Murzakanov via KO in round one (13/10)
Serghei Spivac vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta: Heavyweights
Serghei Spivac comes in as the 8/11 favourite for this one, while Waldo Cortes-Acosta is 11/10 with Paddy Power.
Spivac, 2-2 in his last four fights, lands 3.49 significant strikes and averages 4.56 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. Cortes-Acosta, on a four-fight win streak, lands 5.76 significant strikes and averages 0.49 takedowns landed.
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Spivac has shown signs of brilliance, but mistakes have cost him dearly. Cortes-Acosta has impressed following a run on Dana White's Contender Series, taking out former champions and promising stars. Both are ranked at heavyweight, but the eleventh-ranked Cortes-Acosta might be able to sneak in a win.
The Sporting News prediction: Cortes-Acosta via decision (6/1)
Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson: Welterweights
Khaos Williams is heavily favoured to win this match-up at 8/15, while Andreas Gustafsson is a 6/4 underdog.
Williams is coming off a loss where he submitted to the D'Arce Choke. It was a minor hiccup, as Williams has a 60% takedown defense mark. He also lands 5.36 significant strikes per minute. Gustafsson lands 4.56 significant strikes and 3.60 takedowns in the octagon. The Dana White's Contender Series alum comes into the fight as a short-notice replacement.
Several of Gustafsson's fights have fallen through, and he is hungry. Williams has never lost two straight fights, but Gustafsson, a knockout artist, could be the one to break that streak.
The Sporting News prediction: Gustafsson in rounds 1-2 (7/2)
Ariane Lipski vs. Wang Cong: Flyweights
Wang Cong (1/5) takes on Ariane Lipski (7/2).
Wang lands 6.38 significant strikes per minute and averages 1.61 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. "The Joker" landed 103 significant strikes against Bruna Brasil. Lipski (better known as Ariane da Silva) is on a two-fight losing streak, coming off a D'Arce Choke loss. She lands 4.04 significant strikes and has a strike accuracy mark of 41%.
The underdog is susceptible to the takedown, something Wang can take advantage of. However, the kickboxer's best bet may be to keep it on the feet and tire her opponent out.