The matchup for the 2025 NBA Finals is set. The top-seeded Thunder will take on the run-and-gun Pacers for the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy. Both teams are looking to win their city's first NBA title, and both have the talent, depth and athleticism to do just that.
For Oklahoma City, it's the first NBA Finals berth since Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook fell in a gentleman's sweep by LeBron James' Heat in 2012. It's been longer for Indiana — the Pacers last made the championship round in 2000, losing in six games to Shaquille O'Neal, Kobe Bryant and the Lakers.
Which team will prevail as world champions this time around? The NBA Finals odds lean heavily toward OKC, which has looked like the best team on both sides of the floor all season. It doesn't hurt to have the league MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has averaged 29.8 points per game throughout the postseason.
SGA is expected to hit the big time again and is available at a slam-dunk price of 40/1 with Paddy Power to score 25+ in Game 1 if you sign up as a new customer.
The Thunder are also 43-7 at Paycom Center since the start of the 2024-25 campaign, so there's that.
However, the Pacers have gone 52-21 since mid-December, and they certainly have a ton of confidence. Tyrese "Playoff Hali" Haliburton is the engine that makes this hot-rod of a roster go, and Pascal Siakam — who just won Eastern Conference Finals MVP — has won a title with the Raptors in the not-so-distant past. Rick Carlisle has also led a team to Finals glory (the Mavs in 2011), and both he and OKC coach Mark Daigneault are considered two of the best in the game.
Let's take a closer look at the betting odds for what should be a thrilling championship series. Here's The Sporting News' preview and predictions for the 2025 NBA Finals between the Thunder and Pacers.
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Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals betting odds, tips and predictions
Odds courtsey of Paddy Power & Sky Bet and are correct at time of publish.
- Win Market: Thunder 1/7 | Pacers 9/2
- Over/under: O 5.5 games (1/1) | U 5.5 games (4/6)
To nobody's surprise, Paddy Power likes the Thunder in a major way. The 1/7 series odds translate to an implied probability of nearly 88 percent. Oklahoma City swept Indy in their regular-season series, and the top seed has enjoyed an .860 winning percentage at Paycom Center since the start of the 2024-25 NBA season.
The OVER of 5.5 games yields odds of 1/1. This seems like an attempt to lessen the overall liability related to OKC winning the series 4-1.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals match-up prediction
The Pacers seem to relish the role of underdog. They stormed all the way to the NBA's inaugural In-Season Tournament (now called the NBA Cup) final in 2023. They made the past two Eastern Conference Finals despite long odds. Now they find themselves in the NBA Finals against the top team in the Association, and, of course, they are heavy underdogs.
Is it possible that bettors are finally going to jump on the Indy bandwagon just in time for the Thunder to completely derail the Pacers? Yes, of course. The Pacers have indeed been a fun wagon to hitch onto the past two months, but OKC is a tank. It's a forced-turnover wrecker, a well-oiled offensive machine, and it's well capable of showcasing speed and endurance. Racing on its own track, it would be downright impossible to bet against this supercar of a squad.
The Sporting News NBA expert Steph Noh said after the OKC-Denver series that "we may have just seen the NBA Finals in the second round of the playoffs." The Thunder proved that round that this wasn't just the most dominant team in the regular season, and SGA proved he was, in fact, the legit MVP. They outlasted three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and haven't taken their feet off the gas since (well, except for one dud game against Minnesota).
Reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault and his Thunder won't take Indiana lightly in this title bout. Rick Carlisle might be the best coach in the NBA now that Gregg Popovich has retired, and he always seems to have his team ready for big matchups. Haliburton is also the best passer in the NBA, and Indy can get red-hot in a flash. OKC should be playing at full speed from the opening jump of Game 1 to the final whistle of the series clincher.
The Pacers have defied the odds in front of our eyes plenty of times. They have erased 20-point leads with mere minutes remaining, and Haliburton continues to pull off improbable moments in late-game situations. This squad should be able to eke out one or two wins against OKC — but four? That's asking a lot. OKC beat Indy 2-0 in their regular-season series, and by a combined 27 points. The Thunder have far too much size, depth, defense and scoring punch to lose this series.
If you like the Thunder to win in a gentleman's sweep, you might as well bet on the series UNDER of 5.5 games (it yields 4/6 odds). That way, if something cataclysmic happens to SGA or Jalen Williams — or Indy goes completely nuclear — you have a chance at hitting even if Indy pulls off the improbable.
If you like the Thunder in six or seven games, you can get them to win 4-2 at 4/1 and 4-3 at 5/1.
TSN's Prediction: Thunder in six