Can Claressa Shields beat light heavyweight champion Lani Daniels and retain heavyweight gold at the Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan on Saturday night?
Shields (16-0) has held gold in multiple weight classes, becoming undisputed in three divisions. She saw there was a wide opening at heavyweight and took over the division in February.
The two-time Olympic gold medalist uses her power to her advantage, though she only has three wins via knockout.
Daniels (11-2-2) has proven to be a threat thanks to her calculating offense. "The Smiling Assassin" and her team have embraced the role of underdog and are ready to face what could be her toughest challenge to date.
With the help of The Sporting News' boxing expert Daniel Yanofsky let's take a look at the odds for this fight and make our predictions.
Claressa Shields vs. Lani Daniels betting odds
According to the bookmakers, Claressa Shields is the heavy favourite for this one, available at 1/16 with Betfair, while Lani Daniels is the best-priced 17/1 underdog with Paddy Power at time of writing.
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Claressa Shields vs. Lani Daniels method of victory betting
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Claressa Shields vs. Lani Daniels prediction and betting tips — Daniel Yanofsky
Shields has been fighting for gold since 2017, while Daniels has been competing for local gold and beyond around the same time. However, the competition between the two has been vastly different.
Ranked high in the pound-for-pound list, Shields has a +/- of 14.2, the best among active boxers. She ranks seventh (50.1) in total punches thrown per round and fifth (16.1) in punches landed, with a connect percentage of 32.1%. Shields lands the fourth-most power shots (13.4).
Against Savannah Marshall, Shields landed 175 of 480 shots (36.5%). She landed over 20 shots per round three times early in the fight. Against Maricela Cornejo, Shields delivered 124 of 485 shots landed (25.6%) and connected only once with single-digit per round shots.
In her first true test at heavyweight, Shields landed 29% of her shots (85 of 290) against Danielle Perkins. While she only produced double-digit shots in one round, she did get a knockdown in the 10th.
Daniels is a light heavyweight champion, and there is no denying her skills. She has faced a variety of talent in her career, but not of the same calibre as Shields. All of her fights except one have gone the distance, and no fighter has been knocked down from her punches.
Shields’ opponents land the second-least total punches (6.1) with a bleak 17.9% connect percentage. The “G.W.O.A.T” maintains a good range and forces her opponents to try to reach in. She can break them down with ease, regardless of their status in the sport.
Shields may try for a knockout (7/5 with Paddy Power), and she told the Detroit Free Press in the build-up to the fight: "It may be another second or third-round knockout, man, I'm not even gonna lie to you. Second or third."
However, compared to recent competition for Shields, Daniels may have a better chin.
That’s why we are predicting the fight will go the distance.
It should still be wide scorecards in favour of Shields, but Daniels could make it somewhat entertaining to start.