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Ballon d'Or winner odds, predictions and betting for 2026 featuring Yamal, Mbappe and 2025 winner Dembele

Peter Marshall

Ballon d'Or winner odds, predictions and betting for 2026 featuring Yamal, Mbappe and 2025 winner Dembele image

PSG's Ousmane Dembele lived up to his status as the bookmakers' favourite by taking home the big prize for 2025, edging out Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal, while Barcelona's Aitana Bonmati won her third consecutive Ballon d'Or Feminin.

Organised by France Football magazine each autumn for the previous season, the Ballon d'Or recognises the elite footballer of the past 12 months. Click here for all the 2025 from Theatre du Chatelet on Monday 22 September.

Ballon d'Or 2026 winner odds

Attention immediately turns to who will win the award in 2026. Can Dembele retain the prize? Will Yamal take his revenge? Will Mohamed Salah finally be recognise for his Liverpool exploits? Let's look at the latest Ballon d'Or 2026 bookmaker odds.

Player ClubOdds
Lamine YamalBarcelona4/1
Kylian MbappeReal Madrid6/1
Ousmane DembelePSG14/1
Mohamed SalahLiverpool16/1
Harry KaneBayern Munich16/1
Erling HaalandMan City16/1
Michael OliseBayern Munich20/1
Vinicius JrReal Madrid20/1
VitinhaPSG20/1
Jude BellinghamReal Madrid20/1
PedriBarcelona20/1
RaphinhaBarcelona22/1
Lionel MessiInter Miami33/1

Who is the favourite to win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Barcelona teenager Lamine Yamal is the bookmakers' favourite to go one better than his second place in 2025 and win the 2026 Ballon d'Or (4/1 on BetVictor). Kylian Mbappe is sandwiched between this year's top two at 6/1, while Dembele can be backed at a best price of 14/1. England captain Harry Kane and Man City marksman Erling Haaland are well placed at 16/1 before a whole host of superstars at 20/1 (less than 5% implied chance). Lionel Messi is 33/1, while Cristiano Ronaldo is 50/1 on Sky Bet.

How is the Ballon d'Or decided? Explaining criteria

There are three main criteria that France Football has instructed voters to consider when crafting their list of potential winners:

  1. Individual performance, decisive impact, and impressive character
  2. Team achievements and collective success
  3. Sportsmanship and the player's class, on and off the pitch

This means that not only does an individual's raw output matter, but also how well they contribute to their team's collective success, and the manner in which they conduct themselves.

What is NOT meant to be considered is past achievements or global status. Thus, players who have won the award before are not supposed to be given a higher platform simply because of career success beyond the indicated time period.

The Ballon d'Or, in theory, is meant simply to recognise the best player from the given time period and nothing more. That given time period has changed in recent years, however. Originally meant to produce the best player from the last calendar year, France Football recently changed the consideration timeframe to fit the European season. Thus, consideration is taken from the start of August through the end of the competitive summer tournaments.

Who won Ballon d'Or 2025?

Going into the ceremony, it was no surprise to see the betting dominated almost exclusively by members of the teams who made it furthest in last season's UEFA Champions League. Here's where the 30 nominees finished in the final rankings. 

RankPlayerNationalityClub
WINNEROusmane DembeleFranceParis Saint-Germain
2.Lamine YamalSpainBarcelona
3.VitinhaPortugalParis Saint-Germain
4.Mohamed SalahEgyptLiverpool
5.RaphinhaBrazilBarcelona
6.Achraf HakimiMoroccoParis Saint-Germain
7.Kylian MbappeFranceReal Madrid
8. Cole PalmerEnglandChelsea
9. Gianluigi DonnarummaItalyParis Saint-Germain/Man City
10.Nuno MendesPortugalParis Saint-Germain
11.PedriSpainBarcelona
12.Khvicha KvaratskheliaGeorgiaNapoli/Paris Saint-Germain
13.Harry KaneEnglandBayern Munich
14.Desire DoueFranceParis Saint-Germain
15.Viktor GyokeresSwedenSporting CP/Arsenal
16.Vinicius JuniorBrazilReal Madrid
17.Robert LewandowskiPolandBarcelona
18.Scott McTominayScotlandNapoli
19.Joao NevesPortugalParis Saint-Germain
20.Lautaro MartinezArgentinaInter Milan
21.Serhou GuirassyGuineaBorussia Dortmund
22.Alexis Mac AllisterArgentinaLiverpool
23.Jude BellinghamEnglandReal Madrid
24.Fabian RuizSpainParis Saint-Germain
25.Denzel DumfriesNetherlandsInter Milan
26.Erling HaalandNorwayManchester City
27.Declan RiceEnglandArsenal
28Virgil van DijkNetherlandsLiverpool
29.Florian WirtzGermanyBayer Leverkusen/Liverpool
30.Michael OliseFranceBayern Munich

Other Men's awards

  • Kopa Trophy: Lamine Yamal (Spain, Barcelona)
  • Men's Coach of the Year: Luis Enrique (PSG)
  • Yashin Trophy: Gianluigi Donnarumma (Italy, PSG)
  • Gerd Muller Award: Viktor Gyokeres (Sweden, Sporting CP)
  • Men's Club of the Year: Paris Saint-Germain (France)

Who won Ballon d'Or Feminin 2025?

As well as the Ballon d'Or for the best male player of the year, the ceremony in Paris also saw the best female player crowned for 2025 with the Feminin award. England's victorious Euro-winning Lionesses were well represented but it was ultimately a three-peat for Barcelona's Aitana Bonmati.

RankPlayerNationalityClub
WINNERAitana BonmatiSpainBarcelona
2.Mariona CaldenteySpainArsenal
3.Alessia RussoEnglandArsenal
4.Alexia PutellasSpainBarcelona
5.Chloe KellyEnglandMan City/Arsenal
6.Patricia GuijarroSpainBarcelona
7.Leah WilliamsonEnglandArsenal
8. Ewa PajorPolandBarcelona
9. Lucy BronzeEnglandChelsea
10.Hannah HamptonEnglandChelsea
11.Claudia PinaSpainBarcelona
12.MartaBrazilOrlando Pride
13.Caroline Graham HansenNorwayBarcelona
14.Barbra BandaZambiaChelsea
15.Sandy BaltimoreFranceChelsea
16.Cristina GirelliItalyJuventus
17.Temwa ChawingaMalawiKansas City Current
18.Melchie DumornayHaitiLyon
19.Klara BuhlGermanyBayern Munich
20.Pernille HarderDenmarkBayern Munich
21.Amanda GutierresBrazilPalmeiras
22.Esther GonzalezSpainGotham FC
23.Johanna Rytting KanerydSwedenChelsea
24.Sofia CantoreItalyJuventus
25.Emily FoxUnited StatesArsenal
26.Lindsey HeapsUnited StatesLyon
27.Frida MaanumNorwayArsenal
=Clara MateoFranceParis FC
29.Steph CatleyAustraliaArsenal
30.Caroline WeirScotlandReal Madrid

Other Women's awards

  • Kopa Trophy: Vicky Lopez (Spain, Barcelona)
  • Yashin Trophy: Hannah Hampton (England, Chelsea)
  • Gerd Muller Trophy: Ewa Pajor (Poland, Barcelona)
  • Women's Coach of the Year: Sarina Wiegman (England)
  • Women's Club of the Year: Arsenal (England)

Who has won the most Ballon d'Or awards?

The player with the most Ballon d'Or awards of all-time is Lionel Messi who has won it eight times (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2015, 2019, 2021, 2023). Behind him is Messi's long-time rival Cristiano Ronaldo - a five-time winner of the prize (2008, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017).

Peter Marshall

Peter Marshall has worked in sports media for more than two decades, covering everything from boxing, F1 and tennis to the World Cup and Olympics.