TL;DR
- ChatGPT predicts Karandagan, Masquerade Ball, and Deep Monster for the Japan Cup top three.
- Grok favors Masquerade Ball, followed by Karandagan and Justin Palace in the Japan Cup.
- Gemini also picks Masquerade Ball first, then Justin Palace and Karandagan for the Japan Cup.
- All three AIs predict Masquerade Ball and Karandagan to finish in the top three.
11月30日、中央競馬の日本vs世界の一戦、第45回ジャパンカップ（G1）が開催される。
Here, we present predictions for the first, second, and third place finishers in this year's Japan Cup, generated using the currently popular AI chatbot service. This year, the府中 (Fuchū) turf will feature not only strong contenders representing Japan's middle-distance racing scene but also Europe's Horse of the Year, Ace Impact. How will AI analyze the Japan Cup with its exceptionally star-studded field, spanning from the inside to the outside?
Geminiが3連単ズバリ的中の日本ダービーAI予想の回顧記事はこちら！
AIに質問した内容
This time, we're predicting the Japan Cup using OpenAI's ChatGPT, X's Grok（グロック）, and Google's Gemini（ジェミニ）. We provided each chatbot with information about the participating horses and asked them to output their predictions for The Japan Cup's 1着から3着までの独自の予想 in 根拠を提示するとともに. The details of the information given to the chatbots are as follows.
- 枠順
- 血統
- 通算成績
- 前走成績
- 前走馬体重
- 鞍上
- 調教師
ChatGPT のジャパンカップ予想
ChatGPT's performance last week at the Mile Championship included naming Jantar Mantar as the winner, Gaia Force as the runner-up, and Ofutoreiru, which finished a close fourth among other notable horses. This week's predictions aim for a trifecta win.
- 1着：カランダガン
- 2着：マスカレードボール
- 3着：ディープモンスター
ChatGPT's top contender is the European champion カランダガン. Currently on a three-race winning streak, its most recent victory against top European competition is considered a reliable indicator. While concerns exist regarding the travel and the differences between European and Japanese turf, the horse's past performance and strong suitability for middle-to-long distances suggest it can adapt.
The challenger is マスカレードボール. Like Karandagan, this horse also secured a victory in its previous G1 race. Having experienced competition against older horses in its last outing, it excels on the Tokyo course since its classic season, and with the reliable presence of jockey Lemaire, all the necessary elements are in place. While Karandagan appears to be rated higher due to its international G1 achievements and superior polish, ChatGPT anticipates that sufficient potential for a reversal exists given its adaptability to the Tokyo track conditions.
The third-place prediction is ディープモンスター. The horse won a 2,400-meter G2 race in its previous outing, indicating confidence in its suitability for the distance. ChatGPT frequently forecasts horses that have won their last race to finish within the top three, selecting a dark horse that's a recent prep race victor with momentum.
Grokのジャパンカップ予想
先週は予想振るわずのGrok。現在Xがプレミアムサービス開始3周年を記念してキャンペーンを行っているだけに、最新AIは競馬予想も可能だということを見せつけたい今週の予想はこちら。
- 1着：マスカレードボール
- 2着：カランダガン
- 3着：ジャスティンパレス
Grok has placed its strongest bet on マスカレードボール. Considering the Japan Cup's tendency for horses coming from The Tenno Sho to perform well, especially those that won, boasting a 100% place rate in the past decade, Grok is highly recommending a representative of the three-year-old generation. It's anticipated that this horse possesses high adaptability to Tokyo's track and can handle an extended distance, with the perceived disadvantage of an outer post position deemed insignificant given that a winner emerged from the same gate in 2015 (Shonan Pandora, gate 7, stall 15).
The second-place prediction is カランダガン. This assessment appears to highly value the horse's exceptional consistency, boasting a 100% in-the-money record in its career. While its suitability for Japanese turf conditions led to it being ranked second, its victory in the highly competitive English Champion Stakes and its European bloodline, which suggests ample stamina, make it a reliable choice for second place.
The prediction for third place is ジャスティンパレス. Similar to Masquerade Ball, this horse comes from the previous race, the Tenno Sho, and the Tokyo turf 2,400-meter course, where the Japan Cup is held, is a favorable track for Deep Impact progeny. Grok seems to have concluded that the horse's high lifetime earnings clearly indicate a superior level among the competitors.
Geminiのジャパンカップ予想
先週はジャンタルマンタルこそ1着予想したものの2着以下の展望は振るわなかったGemini。独自の切り口の予想で結果がついてきてほしい今週の予想はこちら。
- 1着：マスカレードボール
- 2着：ジャスティンパレス
- 3着：カランダガン
Gemini's top pick, much like Grok's, is マスカレードボール. Having secured a G1 victory against older horses on the Tokyo course in its previous race, and being only three years old, it also faces a weight disadvantage. Jockey Lemaire, known for his skillful course navigation and pace judgment, is also strong over 2,400 meters, leading to a heavy mark being placed on it, similar to other AIs.
The challenger is ジャスティンパレス. Drawing the advantageous gate number 1 in the first position, which allows for a race without losing ground, is a significant factor. Gemini anticipates that the horse will be in improved condition for its second start this autumn after a previous race. Given its victory in the spring Tenno Sho, a longer distance is also favorable. Gemini expressed confidence in its prediction, stating that the probability of finishing in the top two is high, and questioned whether it could overtake Masquerade Ball.
単穴は カランダガン。他のAIと同じくGeminiも本馬の「格」を評価した形で、馬場が不安であるものの能力と実績でポテンシャルは日本のG2までの重賞馬より高いとジャッジ。三番手の評価に推した。
▶WINTICKET（ウィンチケット）のアプリをダウンロード
各AIの予想の考察
This time, three AIs produced somewhat similar predictions, but each evaluated them based on different, distinctive reasoning. Both マスカレードボール and カランダガン were judged by ChatGPT, Grok, and Gemini as capable of finishing within the top three. Both horses possess rare explosive power as their strength, and the showdown of European and Japanese sharpness on the Fuchu turf is anticipated.
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