TL;DR
- Champions Cup (G1) on December 7th at Chukyo Racecourse features strong contenders.
- Horse weight data shows 480-499kg middleweight horses perform best in this race.
- Wilson Tesoro, a two-time runner-up, is a top contender with appropriate weight.
- Narukami, the 3-year-old dirt king, is a strong S-rated contender against older horses.
G1 チャンピオンズカップ2025 レース詳細
On Sunday, December 7th, the Champions Cup (G1, dirt 1800 meters, 16 runners) will be held at Chukyo Racecourse. The race to decide the autumn dirt champion features a strong field, including the 3-year-old dirt king and a horse that has finished second in this race for two consecutive years.
ここでは、注目データの紹介、出走馬16頭（登録馬の中から賞金順で選出）の全頭診断を行う。
G1 チャンピオンズカップ2025 注目データ
◇注目データ◇馬体重
チャンピオンズカップで注目すべきは馬体重。つまりは体形だ。
現在のJRAダートG1は今レースと、2月東京ダート1600メートルのフェブラリーステークスの2つのみ。そのフェブラリーステークスの過去10年の馬体重のデータが以下の通りだ。
| 馬体重 | 着別度数 | 勝率 | 連対率 | 複勝率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 440～459㌔ | 1－1－0－6 | 12.5％ | 25.0％ | 25.0％ |
| 460～479㌔ | 0ー0ー1ー19 | 0％ | 0％ | 5.0％ |
| 480～499㌔ | 2－3－2－32 | 5.1％ | 12.8％ | 17.9％ |
| 500～519㌔ | 3ー1ー3－34 | 7.3％ | 9.8％ | 17.1％ |
| 520～539㌔ | 4ー4ー3ー23 | 11.8％ | 23.5％ | 32.4％ |
| 540㌔以上 | 0ー1ー1ー14 | 0％ | 6.3％ | 12.5％ |
出走頭数が極端に少ない440～459㌔を除けば、勝率、連対率、複勝率全てで520～539㌔と 大型馬の好走 が目立つ。一方チャンピオンズカップの馬体重のデータは以下の通り。
| 馬体重 | 着別度数 | 勝率 | 連対率 | 複勝率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 440～459㌔ | 0－1－0－6 | 0％ | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| 460～479㌔ | 2－0－2－13 | 11.8％ | 11.8％ | 23.5％ |
| 480～499㌔ | 4－5－1－33 | 9.3％ | 20.9％ | 23.3％ |
| 500～519㌔ | 2－2－4－29 | 5.4％ | 10.8% | 21.6% |
| 520～539㌔ | 1－2－2－32 | 2.7% | 8.1% | 13.5% |
| 540㌔以上 | 1－0－1－13 | 6.7% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
フェブラリーステークスと違いが大きく出ている。前述の520～539㌔の大型馬はここでは勝率、連対率、複勝率がとても低い。一方、勝ち馬、2着馬が一番多いのは480～499㌔。中型馬の好走 が目立つ。
This is thought to be largely due to differences in the case shape. The February Stakes is a 1600-meter dirt race at Tokyo. In addition to a turf start, there is only one turn. The turn is gentle and easy to navigate. Because 絶対的なスピード is required, large horses tend to perform well.
On the other hand, the Champions Cup takes place on Chukyo's dirt track over 1800 meters. In addition to being a single-lap race with four turns, the angle of those turns is sharp, making them difficult to navigate. More than absolute speed, the ability to corner without losing momentum is crucial. This is precisely why it's a 大型馬が活躍しづらい course.
過去10年、520キロ以上で1着か2着に好走したのは ゴールドドリーム（17年1着、18＆19年2着）と クリソベリル（19年1着）のみ。今回出走で馬格がある馬は、上記の2頭と同じだけの格があるかを見極めるのが大事だ。
G1 チャンピオンズカップ2025 出走馬全頭診断
ここでは、出走馬全頭の評価を行う。S、A、B、C、Dの5段階評価で、Sが最高評価。
アウトレンジ（牡5、栗東・大久保）【評価A】
A front-runner who won two graded stakes races last year, including the Urawa Kinen. His performance in this year's Jpn1 Teio Sho, where he finished a neck behind Mickey Fight, was exceptionally strong. Despite some congestion around the third corner, causing a delayed acceleration, his finishing kick exploded in the straight. He also finished ahead of this race's entrants Wilson Tesoro and Ramjet.
Although the horse finished seventh in the previous Miyako Stakes, 1.8 seconds behind the winner, this result can be disregarded. Racing after a four-month layoff, the horse lacked sharpness mentally and, despite being a front-runner, couldn't secure a favorable position. The heavy track conditions, which favored speed, also contributed to the defeat. With the second race after a break and a good track surface anticipated, an improvement in condition is expected.
キャリア17戦で左回りは2戦のみと偏った経歴だが、初出走となった浦和記念で勝利。そこも問題はないとみる。前走馬体重は休み明けで498㌔。このレースで走りやすい馬格だ。
ウィリアムバローズ（牡7、栗東・上村）【評価B】
A front-runner who won two graded races last year, the Tokai Stakes and the Nippon TV Hai. In the latter, he achieved victory against Ushba Tesoro, the Dubai World Cup champion. He performed well, finishing second in the Jpn1 Kashiwa Kinen two starts prior. He also finished ahead of Costa Nova, the winner of this year's February Stakes.
前走のエルムSは勝ち馬から0秒9差の4着に敗戦。59㌔を背負ったこともあったか、ゲートを出てからの二の脚が悪かった。態勢を立て直して臨む今回は状態的にはプラスになるだろう。
However, this time there are many strong horses in the same class running, in addition to it being a G1 race. Given this horse's tendency to win by leading when the pace has slowed, it seems unlikely that the race will suit its style. Its weight was 492 kg in the previous race, which is generally favorable.
ウィルソンテソーロ（牡6、美浦・高木）【評価S】
2年連続の同レース2着馬で、Jpn1・2勝馬。古馬ダート界のエース的存在だ。今年の春は海外挑戦で馬券圏内を逃し、復帰初戦の帝王賞でも状態が戻り切らなかったことから5着に敗れた。
This autumn, despite returning from a break, the horse secured a victory in the mile-long Japan Cup (Jpn1) at the Nambu Hai. Having passed through the summer, its condition has evidently recovered. Although it finished fifth in its previous race, the JBC Classic at Funabashi, it was already unable to keep pace with the leaders by the third corner. The reason for its defeat is thought to be that its high-stepping gait, characterized by rapid rotation, was not suited to a deep dirt track.
Funabashi Racecourse's dirt track has a sand depth of 12 centimeters. Chukyo Racecourse's dirt track has a sand depth of 9 centimeters. Chukyo's shallower sand track is suited to this horse, and if its condition hasn't declined since its last defeat, it should be competitive this time. Its body weight of 487 kg in the previous race is also appropriate for this competition.
サンライズジパング（牡4、栗東・前川）【評価B】
This next-generation dirt star boasts three graded stakes victories and a second-place finish in this year's February Stakes. His ability to perform well regardless of distance or venue, as demonstrated by his win in the Jpn2 Nagoya Grand Prix over a mile to 2100 meters, is his greatest strength.
しかし、今春は南部杯で勝ち馬から1秒4差の4着、前走JBCクラシックで勝ち馬から3秒8差の10着と大きく状態を落としている。特に前走はレース途中から集中力を欠くような走りになってしまっていた。
Following that history, the horse transferred to Kyoko Maekawa's stable after its last race. With the assistant trainer who was in charge of the horse at its former stable, Otonashi Stable, now employed there, an improvement in its condition is anticipated. Considering its ability, this is certainly a horse whose value shouldn't be underestimated. Its weight was 507 kg in its last race, compared to over 520 kg when it performed well, suggesting it's not ideally suited for this track.
シックスペンス（牡4、美浦・国枝）【評価B】
This year, a horse with three turf graded stakes victories is showing new potential on dirt. In its previous race, the Nambu Hai, it made its debut on dirt after a layoff and immediately secured second place. Even during its turf graded stakes wins, it maintained a forward position and sustained its speed to rack up victories. Its running style suggests a very high aptitude for dirt, and its previous performance wasn't a fluke.
This race is on a dirt track with four turns, extended by one furlong. While the competition level is higher than the previous race, increasing the challenges, the horse aims for a good performance with improvements from its second start after a break and its favorable condition. Ideally, the horse's weight, which was 503 kg in its last race, could be reduced slightly.
セラフィックコール（牡5、栗東・寺島）【評価C】
A Grade 3 winner is set to compete in the Champions Cup for the third consecutive year. A significant challenge lies in its slow start from the gate and its lack of sustained speed. It struggles when jostled and dislikes racing in tightly packed fields. Its focus tends to wane instantly when overtaken by other horses in the stretch, suggesting that races with fewer competitors and longer distances, like the two times it won the Diolite Kinen, are more suited to its abilities.
また前走マーキュリーCから4か月半の休み明けでぶっつけ本番は荷が重い。馬体重も前走528㌔でこのレース向きではない。
ダブルハートボンド（牝4、栗東・大久保）【評価Ａ】
The speedy queen, aiming for her first G1 victory in her seventh career race with an undefeated record, will participate. In her previous race, the Miyako Stakes, she achieved a remarkable time of 1 minute 47.5 seconds, an JRA record, even with the heavy track conditions. She possesses a high-stepping stride, and her abilities are amplified several times over when the track is damp.
In the Breeders' Gold Cup two races ago, where they finished second, the horse faced tough marking from the formidable Awesome Result, leading to being overtaken by Riot Girl who benefited from the situation. This performance could be described as a "strong loss." The outcome did not result in a significant deduction.
This time, racing on a firm track and facing a strong rival, Narukami, presents a significant challenge. In the previous race, victory was achieved on a muddy track, where dirt races generally see the rear horses unable to catch up as the track deteriorates, favoring front-runners. With Narukami, a formidable opponent of similar running style, appearing on a firm track, it will be tough if this becomes the target race.
Furthermore, fillies tend to perform better and appear more refreshed when they race with sufficient rest between events. It remains to be seen how this horse will fare in its current race, coming off a record-breaking performance with only three weeks of recovery. Conversely, if it overcomes this challenge, it will likely ascend to the status of an extraordinary, superstar horse. Its weight was 476 kg in its previous race. Coincidentally, this is the same weight as Sunvista, which achieved the only notable finish within the betting payouts in recent years at the Champions Cup.
テンカジョウ（牝4、栗東・岡田）【評価C】
This filly, with a record of finishing in the top three in all 12 of her races and three graded stakes victories, is making her debut in a mixed-gender graded stakes race. Currently, the significant obstacle is the considerable difference in class compared to the top male horses. While she performed well, finishing second in her last race, the JBC Ladies Classic, her winning time was 1 minute and 53.8 seconds. When converted to the JBC Classic on the same day and distance, this would equate to a fourth-place finish, with a substantial 1.8-second gap to the winner.
また、主戦の松山弘平騎手はこの馬ではなくアウトレンジを選択。ダートの名手が選択した馬がそちらとみると、今回は印は回らないか。馬体重は495㌔で牝馬としては少し立派か。
ナルカミ（牡3、美浦・田中博）【評価Ｓ】
The victor of this year's Japan Dirt Classic and the leading figure in the three-year-old dirt racing scene is making their first G1 challenge against older horses. In their previous race, they took the lead, set their own pace, and maintained it until the finish, leaving other horses unable to catch up. They achieved a commanding victory by three lengths over Natural Rise, the two-time champion of three-year-old dirt racing, thus firmly establishing themselves as the dominant force of their generation.
While the horse's physique still has room for development, this race has seen 3-year-olds perform well over the past decade, with a record of [2, 2, 2, 12], resulting in a 22.2% chance of finishing in the top two and a 33.3% chance of placing in the top three. The 1kg weight advantage is significant. Given its running style, being able to race near the front makes it well-suited for this event. Its weight of 505kg in the previous race was slightly heavy, but Crown Pride, which finished second in 2022 as a 3-year-old, weighed 500kg. This isn't a major disadvantage.
The sole concern is the horse's temperament. In its second race, a 1-win class event over Chukyo dirt 1800 meters, it experienced its only defeat, finishing seventh. While a left-handed track was thought to be a contributing factor, in the race before that, the Korakusho, held at Morioka with its sharp turns, the horse navigated the corners with ease. In the stretch, it switched leads smoothly and showed a strong, confident stride.
This suggests that the horse's seven losses were likely due to its elevated tension before the races, meaning it wasn't in its usual mental state. Following this race, it was transferred to the stable of Hiroshi Tanaka in Miho. Since then, it hasn't become completely exhausted due to pre-race tension, but it's impossible to say for sure that this won't happen again. Checking the paddock and the warm-up lap will be necessary.
ハギノアレグリアス（牡8、栗東・四位）【評価C】
重賞3勝馬が3年連続のチャンピオンズカップ出走を果たす。昨年の同レースでは勝ち馬と0秒4差の4着と好走。激走が期待されるが、今回は5月名古屋グランプリ以来となる半年ぶりの出走となった。
The past two years saw the horse participate in the September Sirius Stakes, but this time it's running off a break without prior races. Furthermore, its regular jockey, Nozomi Iwata, opted to ride William Burroughs. This race doesn't appear to be the primary target given the horse's schedule, so it won't receive a mark. Its weight was 494 kg in the previous race, indicating a suitable physique.
ヘリオス（セ8、岩手・千葉）【評価D】
元JRA所属馬がチャンピオンズカップ初出走。22年南部杯ではハナ差の2着に好走するなど、輝かしい実績を持つ。今年はG1に3走連続で出走しているが、全て1秒6差以上の2桁着順に敗戦している。
9歳馬でも元気に走っているが、中央のG1戦線では果たしてどうか。前走馬体重は475キロ。
ペプチドナイル（牡7、栗東・武）【評価B】
24年フェブラリーステークス勝ち馬が2つ目のG1タイトル奪取に挑む。今春はフェブラリーS4着、ゴドルフィンマイル11着と馬券圏内を逃していたが、秋復帰初戦の南部杯で3着に好走を果たした。
しかし、勝ち馬と1秒0差の9着に敗れた前走武蔵野Sが案外。得意の東京マイルにも関わらず、直線では得意の前々で長く使う脚が不発だった。他馬に抜かれてからの気持ちの抜け方が目立っている点が気になる。
Given its impressive showing in the straight at last year's Champions Stakes, where it nearly secured victory, expectations are high. However, if the reason for its previous race defeat was psychological, recovery within a short timeframe will be challenging. Furthermore, the horse, weighing 530kg in its last race, is a large breed and not ideally suited for this particular competition. We will carefully assess its condition right up to the final workout before making a firm decision.
ぺリエール（牡5、美浦・黒岩）【評価B】
今夏北海道シリーズで連勝を果たした重賞2勝馬。その2走前のエルムSは重賞で好走を続けるロードクロンヌ、今回出走のウィリアムバローズなど好メンバーが揃うレースで勝利をおさめた。
During his three- and four-year-old seasons, he primarily competed on the Tokyo dirt 1600-meter track, achieving victory in the 2023 Unicorn Stakes. However, he didn't secure another win until the Onuma Stakes in Hakodate this past summer. With a stride that doesn't lift his legs very high, he's likely the type that performs best on tighter circuits like those in the Hokkaido series.
This time at Chukyo, the turns are sharp, requiring good agility, but the long straights mean the key will be sustaining speed until the finish. The horse's weight is 482 kg, which is suitable for this race. I recall when I was covering the horse at Miho, it had a sleek physique that didn't seem like a dirt horse at all, and a stable staff member I interviewed remarked, "It looks like a turf horse, doesn't it?"
メイショウハリオ（牡8、栗東・岡田）【評価A】
A seasoned veteran, a four-time winner, will compete in the Champions Cup for the first time in two years. What was surprising was their second-place finish in the previous JBC Classic. Due to an accident during transport in the July Ohi Hai, this race marked a return to competition after being rebuilt, and it was their first race since the May Heian Stakes. This horse, which performs better after a warm-up race, immediately secured second place among strong competitors. They are in excellent condition this autumn.
For courses like Funabashi and Kawasaki that allow for agile maneuvering, the horse's current suitability is highest. Consequently, drawing an inner gate in this race significantly increases the chance of being unable to advance during the race, which would prevent the horse's strengths from being utilized. A middle to slightly outside gate would be ideal. The horse's weight was 494 kg in the previous race. It possesses a physique well-suited to this track.
今回は主戦の浜中騎手が落馬負傷中で騎乗できず。非常に痛いが、今回は武騎手が騎乗。新たな融合が見られるか。
ラムジェット（牡4、栗東・佐々木晶）【評価A】
昨年の東京ダービー覇者がJRA・G1初出走。同じく昨年の東京大賞典はフォーエバーヤング、ウィルソンテソーロに次いでの3着に入るなど確かな実力の持ち主だ。
This spring, the horse missed the top three in both the KRA Cup Classic, due to high-level international competition and lingering fatigue, and the July Emperor's Cup. However, this autumn, the horse has been gradually improving, finishing third in the Korea Cup and fourth in the Miyako Stakes. Notably, in its most recent race, despite a very fast pace set by the frontrunners, the horse's closing speed was exceptionally powerful.
The gate is slow, and it's likely to struggle to keep up during the race. Nevertheless, with many front-runners this time, a pace suitable for this horse is anticipated. With its physique now fully developed after being spurred on, this is an opportune moment. Its weight was 516 kg in the previous race, showing a solid build. While its potential for The February Stakes can't be denied, its inherent strength is undeniable.
ルクソールカフェ（牡3、美浦・堀）【評価A】
今年のケンタッキーダービーにも出走した3歳有力馬がJRA・G1初出走。
In its previous outing, the horse achieved its first victory in a graded race against older horses at the Musashino Stakes, and the performance was truly remarkable. Despite a slow start and carrying 59kg, it secured a commanding win by over three lengths against Costa Nova, the victor of this year's February Stakes. In the homestretch, the jockey held back the whip until the last possible moment, and upon urging, the horse shifted gears multiple times, accelerating with incredible speed. Even in a graded race against seasoned competitors, its engine seemed to operate on an entirely different level.
前々走のジャパンダートクラシックは3着に敗れたが、海外帰りかつ5か月休み明けのぶっつけ本番で本調子ではなかった。度外視は可能だ。
The issue lies with the horse's weight and its speed. Its previous weight was 544 kg, making it an exceptionally large horse and not suited for this particular race. Furthermore, given its considerable speed capabilities, there's a question mark over how it will perform on the sharp turns of Chukyo's 1800-meter track. While I'd confidently back it in the February Stakes next spring, I can't definitively say it's a guaranteed winner here.
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G1チャンピオンズカップ2025 出走馬総括
現時点での本命候補はS評価の ウィルソンテソーロ か ナルカミ。穴馬で面白いのは ラムジェット、アウトレンジ か。後は調教を確認したうえで、本命を決める。