The Pacers did their part in Oklahoma City, stealing Game 1 of the NBA Finals in the last second of regulation to take away home-court advantage from the Thunder. OKC punched back in Game 2, and will now try to win home-court back in Game 3, which tips off Wednesday night US time (6 a.m. Thursday morning in India) at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's star continues to rise. The league MVP has now scored 3,053 points since the start of the regular season, making him the 12th player in NBA history to eclipse 3,000 combined points in the regular season and playoffs. He's also the only player not named Michael Jordan to record 3,000 points, 600 assists, 150 steals and 80 blocks in a season. He's a force.
The Pacers need their force — Tyrese "Playoff Hali" Haliburton — to step up in Game 3. The clutch maestro had just 31 points and 12 assists total over Games 1 and 2, and he's shooting just 5-of-15 from three-point land. He had five turnovers in Game 2.
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Will Indiana steal back momentum in Game 3? Or, will OKC build off its dominant Game 2 win and move one step closer to the franchise's first NBA championship?
Let's get to our betting preview for Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Thunder and Pacers, including the odds, our game pick and the top player props.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 3 betting tips, odds and predictions
All odds are courtesy of Parimatch and are correct at time of publish.
- Win Market: Pacers (2.80) | Thunder (1.46)
- Over/Under: O 228.5 (1.93) | U 228.5 (1.87)
Parimatch likes the Thunder to get another win, but bettors seem a bit torn. Game 2 saw the scoreboard light up with 230 total points, right in line with what the oddsmakers anticipated. In contrast, the series opener ended with a combined 221 points, falling roughly 9 or 10 shy of the expected total. So far, bettors have seen both sides of the coin: one "Under" and one clear-cut "Over."
Given how the matchups have unfolded, it looks likely that totals north of 220 will continue to be the norm. As a result, the line for Game 3 has once again been set around the 228-229 mark, echoing the previous outing.
MORE: Haliburton shown walking with slight limp after Game 2
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 3 best bets and final score prediction
It's hard to bet against the Thunder after the 123-107 thrashing they put on the Pacers over the weekend (side note: yours truly predicted OKC to win 121-107 — you can't get much closer!). That said, Rick Carlisle is masterful when it comes to in-series adjustments, which explains why he's one of the 10 most winningest coaches in postseason history and 4-2 lifetime as a Finals head coach.
Like OKC, Indiana bounces back well. The Pacers are 24-12 following a loss since the start of the season, and they've maintained the second-best cover rate in the NBA following a loss (61.8%). They're also 26-8 over their past 34 home games, so Gainbridge Fieldhouse home cookin' could come into play a bit (Caitlin Clark, stand up!).
Two things we expect from the home underdogs:
- A more aggressive Tyrese Haliburton
- A heightened focus on stopping SGA in the high screen game
Hali only took 13 shots in each of the first two games of this series, which simply won't do. The Pacers are 7-0 this postseason when he scores 21-plus points, so they need him to find his shots. Indy also needs to blitz SGA, who has been effortlessly splitting defenders off high screens. Expect Carlisle to adjust his defensive scheme and force other Thunder players to hit shots.
We still have the Thunder winning this game, but we would be pretty surprised if the clutch-king Pacers got trounced for the second time in a row. Consider taking the home underdogs and the points in what should be a competitive game until the final whistle.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Thunder 115, Pacers 111 — OKC wins but Indiana keeps things competitive, while the score finishes UNDER the projected total of 228.5.
Thunder vs. Pacers NBA Finals Game 3 top player prop bets
Tyrese Haliburton Over 17.5 points (1.84, Parimatch)
Haliburton has established himself as one of the most cold-blooded late-game assassins in the NBA, but he has also gone a bit cold offensively over his first couple NBA Finals games. Capitalize on this trimmed-down point total, as he should see a higher usage level in an important Game 3 at home.
Hali averaged 3.2 more points per game at home (20.2) than he did on the road this season (17.0), while also shooting much better from all three scoring levels. He scored 20-plus in all three home games during the Eastern Conference Finals vs. the Knicks (averaging 24.3 PPG), while failing to reach 20-plus over Indy's past four road tilts (10.8).
As we already mentioned, the Pacers have gone 7-0 this postseason when Haliburton scores 21-plus points. There's no way Rick Carlisle plays Hali off the ball as much as he did in Games 1 and 2 (Andrew Nembhard was a game-worst -17 in Game 2). For the Pacers to have any shot of winning this series, they need their best player to play like their best player. No matter who wins this game, we love this player prop.
Pascal Siakam OVER 18.5 Points vs. Thunder (1.64, Parimatch)
Indiana has been spreading the wealth offensively, with nine players averaging over 9.5 points across the last two games. Yet, it's Pascal Siakam who's still leading the charge, putting up 17 per contest despite shooting just 38.5% from the field.
It's been a balanced, unselfish offensive effort from the Pacers, which has made it tougher for OKC to zero in on a single threat, though they've done a solid job keying in on both Siakam and Haliburton so far.
Siakam dropped 19 in Game 1, just enough to squeeze past the current line, and followed that with a quieter 15-point outing in Game 2. Still, there's a trend worth noting: the Eastern Conference Finals MVP hasn't failed to clear 18.5 in back-to-back games since Round 1 against top-seeded Cleveland. That bounce-back pattern bodes well heading into Game 3.
If history is any indication, Siakam should be in line for a stronger showing, and clearing 18.5 looks like a sharp play at 1.64 odds.