The NBA Cup will have its third unique winner on Tuesday, as the plucky Spurs take on a polished Knicks team that are looking to build on their Eastern Conference Finals run last season. The knockout format of this tournament has led to plenty of upsets over the years. The Lakers and Bucks weren't the best teams in the tournament in 2023 and 2024, but they were the hottest at the right time.
Both the Spurs and Knicks have been playing great basketball lately. The Knicks have a faster and more balanced offense under new coach Mike Brown, and it's led to a lot of wins. The Spurs are young but already a great team thanks to MVP-level play from Victor Wembanyama. This is a matchup with a ton of star power, and the Las Vegas crowd should be entertained.
Here's who has the edge, and what the key factors will be for Tuesday's finale.
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NBA Cup Championship prediction, pick
The Spurs were a big underdog to win this tournament when it first kicked off, mostly due to being in a group with the Nuggets, Rockets, Warriors, and Blazers during group stage play. That didn't stop me from picking them to win it all back in October.
It didn't take a rocket scientist back then to figure out that Wembanyama had a chance to be the best player in every game that he's in. That was certainly the case when the Spurs stunningly snapped the Thunder's 16-game winning streak in the West Semifinals on Saturday. His recovery from a calf injury would keep him on a meager 20-minute minutes restriction in that game, but that was enough to win.
Wemby should play a little bit more in the Finals, although the Spurs have been extremely cautious with him throughout his career. The Spurs have been a good team without him though, and summer acquisition Luke Kornet provides good backup play when he sits.
The Knicks are mostly healthy for this game. Backup guard Deuce McBride is the only key reserve who will be out. Tyler Kolek played well in his absence in the team's Semifinal win over the Magic. He's a good offensive player who will be tested on defense.
Mike Brown has been better than his predecessor Tom Thibodeau at balancing minutes, but he will lean heavily on Jalen Brunson, diminishing the importance of the McBride injury. Brunson has been spectacular in Cup games, averaging 35 points on 56 percent shooting from the field.
The Spurs have good personnel to guard Brunson. Stephon Castle is a pitbull at the point of attack. Dylan Harper is a talented defender. And Brunson has struggled more against defenders with good length, like Devin Vassell. Nobody is going to stop the Knicks star, but those three can at least make life as difficult as possible.
In a winner-take-all game, matchups have heightened importance. The Spurs have some in their favor, the (literally) biggest being Wembanyama. These are two evenly-matched teams, but it's tough to bet against Wemby.
Prediction: Spurs win
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Knicks vs. Spurs betting odds
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline | |
| Spurs | +2.5 (-110) | o228.5 (-110) | +110 |
| Knicks | -2.5 (-110) | u228.5 (-110) | -135 |
Knicks vs. Spurs key storyline: How much damage can Victor Wembanyama do?
The big question coming into this game is how many minutes Wemby will play. His impact cannot be overstated. He was a plus-21 against the Thunder, and San Antonio was outscored by 19 points when he sat on the bench. He completely changes the geometry of the floor on defense with his ridiculous shot-blocking (he has at least one block in 98 straight games).
Wembanyama will probably still have some sort of minutes restriction in this game. If he can play 30 minutes, then the Spurs should win. If he stays closer to his 20 from Saturday, then it will be tough to overcome that limitation.
The Knicks have several interesting options to guard Wembanyama. Karl-Anthony Towns isn't a great choice due to his general poor feel on that end of the floor. Wembanyama has absolutely roasted him in past matchups. Mitchell Robinson is a bruiser who hasn't been available in the past. He can tire Wembanyama out by forcing him to work to keep him off the glass.
Teams have also experimented with putting a wing on Wembanyama, leaving bigger players available to help on him. The Knicks have two good ones in Mikal Bridges and O.G. Anunoby (the latter of whom has been a much stronger defender this year). Thibodeau was reluctant to try that approach, but Brown could.
Towns should not be the primary option. Wemby has only one game against the Knicks over the past year, and it was a big one. He dropped 42 points with 18 rebounds and four blocks last Christmas, raining down 3's and getting to the paint at will with KAT guarding him on most of those plays.
The Spurs will also need to figure out how to guard Towns. Wembanyama is a fine option, but that is an awful matchup for when the slow-footed Kornet comes into the game.
Center play will probably determine the winner of this game. Towns needs to make up for his lackluster defense by scoring a ton, particularly when Kornet is in the game. Wembanyama has to be physical with either the wings, Robinson, or Towns and use his size to its utmost advantage.