The Warriors looked like they might be able to sneak into the circle of contenders prior to their Monday night game against the Heat. They had won 11 of their last 15 games, making a push up the Western Conference standings and finishing the night with a 25-19 record. With Jonathan Kuminga eligible to be traded, help looked like it was on the horizon.
All of that changed as Jimmy Butler crumpled to the ground in the third quarter, suffering a torn ACL. Butler will be out for the rest of the season, drastically altering the course that the franchise was planning to take.
What do the Warriors do now? A win-now trade becomes a much dicier proposition for the team with their undisputed second-best player unavailable. Here's what Golden State must consider going forward.
MORE: How long is Jimmy Butler out? ACL injury timeline, return date, latest updates on Warriors star
Can the Warriors survive without Jimmy Butler?
If the Warriors decide to stay the course and that the current roster can fill the gap created by Butler, their season is essentially over. The deadline to apply for a disabled player exception has passed, so they won't be able to find another player without making a big trade.
Golden State won't be able to recreate what Butler gave them internally. He was in the midst of a great season for the team, averaging 20.0 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists on a stellar 51.9 percent from the field and 37.6 percent from 3.
While the Warriors have traditionally crumbled in the minutes where Steph Curry sits, Butler was keeping those units afloat. The team was outscoring opponents by an excellent 9.6 points per 100 possessions with Butler on the floor and Curry off. With both Curry and Butler off the floor, the team has been getting destroyed, getting outscored by 6.1 points per 100 possessions.
Kuminga, who hasn't entered a game since Dec. 18, will likely get a crack at filling in for Butler. Steve Kerr told reporters that the forward could "absolutely" get a chance at returning to the rotation.
Kuminga began the year as the team's starter, but his fit with Butler and Draymond Green was untenable. It was widely speculated that the Warriors were holding him out in order to preserve his health for a future trade. Now, they might need to keep him in order to fill those forward minutes.
The Warriors have given Kuminga plenty of chances to make it work. He has periods where he's been a major offensive sparkplug for the team. He averaged 24.3 points per game over the last four playoff games of last season as the team desperately sought scoring with Curry injured.
Those four games all ended in losses though, and it illustrates that the team has had a very difficult time winning Kuminga's minutes even when he has played well. His mental lapses and lack of impact outside of scoring have led to inconsistent playing time throughout his Warriors tenure.
If Kuminga isn't the answer, then what is?
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Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga trades
The Warriors could still try to move Kuminga, but he doesn't have much value around the league. Any player that they brought in for him wouldn't be enough of a difference-maker to change this team's fortunes.
The Warriors do have the option of trading Butler, who is signed for $54 million this season and $57 million next year. At age 36, the team has to wonder how effective he will be coming back from his injury. He's the second-oldest player to tear his ACL since the start of the 2005-06 season, per Jeff Stotts.
Moving Butler would be a difficult decision on an emotional level. But if they do decide to trade him, then his salary slot could bring in a very good player in return.
Butler's contract is a clear negative value given his lack of availability and age. The Warriors do have three first-round draft picks fully available to trade and another protected first-rounder that they control if it lands in the top 20 of the 2030 draft. Giannis Antetokounmpo is probably out of range, but four first-rounders would be enough to get an All-Star talent back in a deal.
Golden State has been reluctant to part with those future picks before Butler's injury, and for good reason. Even if the team did try to make a move on a player like Ja Morant, Domantas Sabonis, or any of the other fringe All-Stars that have been in the rumor mill, they would be hard-pressed to even get back to the level of contention that they had with Butler. He had been a top 20 player in the league this season. Those types of true difference-makers aren't out there right now for the assets the Warriors have available.
They could also pivot and get an early start on their rebuild by moving Curry, who is still a top 10 player in the league. He would bring back significant value, but the idea seems too farfetched to put much thought into. It wouldn't happen unless he shocked the world and asked out of the only team he's ever played for.
The most prudent course of action right now appears to be coming to grips with the idea that the Curry championship window is closed. Curry, Butler, and Draymond Green are all signed through next season. It might be time to let those three ride gracefully into the sunset, then begin building the next great Warriors team in the summer of 2027 when they will have cap space to completely remake their roster.