Following a long layoff, the legendary Manny Pacquiao will look to cause a stir once again in boxing when he challenges Mario Barrios in the early hours of Sunday morning U.K. time for the WBC welterweight title in Las Vegas.
Pacquiao (62-8-2) has won gold in eight weight classes and is familiar with the WBC title at 147. The former Senator of the Philippines retired in 2021 but has competed in exhibition fights.
He’s beaten a who’s who of fighters, from Marco Antonio Barrera to Erik Morales and now, after years away from the ring, Pacquiao is looking to turn back the clock and complete the ultimate comeback.
But can he beat his biggest challenger, Father Time? Here's our expert betting picks and predictions for this one, courtesy of our boxing tipster Daniel Yanofsky.
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Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios predictions, tips and betting odds
According to Dafabet, Mario Barrios is the 1.43 favourite for this one, while Manny Pacquiao is a 2.80 underdog.
Not that Manny necessarily sees it that way.
"I’m going to prove to everyone that I’m in great condition," Pacquiao told reporters. "I’ve been enjoying training camp like I did in the past. Just like when I was 26-years-old. The discipline is still the same. Even with my layoff, my passion is still there."
There's a reason, though, that Barrios enters this one with a short price. The 30-year-old (29-2-1) beat Yordenis Ugas for interim gold and became full-time champion after Terence Crawford was named "champion in recess.
Barrios has climbed up the ladder in boxing, holding gold in what could be the start of his peak.
El Azteca surely won’t let that go to waste, even against someone with Pacquiao’s status in the sport.
"At the end of the day, he’s just another man in there. Another opponent trying to take my title. Regardless of everything he’s accomplished and given to the sport," Barrios said.
Don't let sentiment for a boxing great blind the facts when you are making your pick on this one.
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Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios result betting
Odds courtesy of Dafabet and correct at time of publish:
- Pacquiao via KO/TKO: 6.00
- Pacquiao via decision: 5.50
- Barrios via KO/TKO: 2.40
- Barrios via decision: 3.20
- Draw: 15.00
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Manny Pacquiao vs. Mario Barrios odds, fight prediction and stats — Daniel Yanofsky
Pacquiao is a legend, but status alone won’t help him against Barrios.
Even in the latter half of his peak career, Pacquiao was a busy fighter. He landed 195 of 686 shots (28.4%) against Keith Thurman, throwing 57 punches per round. Pacquiao had an 82-18 edge in jabs landed.
Barrios is ranked 10th in all of boxing when it comes to the highest amount of jabs thrown (55%) and fifth in jabs landed (42.9%). How has that helped in his most recent fights?
Against Abel Ramos, Barrios had a 279-204 edge in punches landed, landing 35.4% of his shots compared to 27.1% by his opponent. He landed 163 of 505 jabs (32.3%). Barrios landed 149 of 446 shots (31.2%) against Fabian Maidana, with 94 jabs landed.
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Against Yordenis Ugas, Barrios outlanded him 131-39 in the last six rounds. Of the 193 strikes he landed, 107 of them were jabs. When Pacquiao fought Ugas, the former only landed 16% of his shots, with 42 jabs. Ugas landed 151 strikes, had a 37.3% connect rate, and landed 50 jabs.
Can Pacquiao go jab-for-jab against Barrios? Anything can happen in boxing, but timing is everything. So is age. Pacquiao fought twice in 2019. After those fights, he fought Ugas in 2021. He’s now 46, only competing in a few exhibition bouts.
Pacquiao will try to go all out in the first few rounds, similar to how he scored an early knockdown against Thurman. Barrios will need to weather the storm and avoid running into the early barrage of punches Pacquiao plans to land.
As the fight goes on, Pacquiao should tire out. The champion must utilize his height, reach, and age to tire out Pacquiao.
Barrios must show he’s the more durable fighter here. While he hasn’t fully proven himself, he should outlast Pacquiao. Hopefully, a win for Barrios won’t result in unspeakable damage to the Hall of Famer.