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Ballon d'Or latest winner odds, predictions and betting for 2025 ceremony as nominees announced

Peter Marshall

Ballon d'Or latest winner odds, predictions and betting for 2025 ceremony as nominees announced image

With the 2024/25 season wrapped up, thoughts are now turning to who will be crowned as the best male player on the planet at the 69th Ballon d'Or ceremony in Paris later this year.

Organised by France Football magazine each autumn for the previous season, the Ballon d'Or recognises the elite footballer of the past 12 months.

This year's gala — with UEFA now involved in the organising — will take place on September 22 at the Theatre du Chatelet to crown the best male and female players and give out several other accolades.

With the 30 nominees now confirmed, here's a look at the leading candidates for the award in 2025, and the latest betting odds on who might take home the prize.

Ballon d'Or 2025 winner betting odds

PlayerClubOdds* (via Parimatch)
Ousmane DembelePSG1.16
Lamine YamalBarcelona5.50
VitinhaPSG13.00
RaphinhaBarcelona17.00
Mohamed SalahLiverpool17.00
Cole PalmerChelsea21.00
Achraf HakimiPSG26.00
Fabian RuizPSG26.00
Kylian MbappeReal Madrid34.00
Khvicha KvaratskheliaPSG41.00

*Odds correct at time of publish and subject to change.

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Who will win Ballon d'Or 2025? Contenders and ranking

The list of contenders for the 2025 Ballon d'Or award is, of course, still subjective at this stage, and it's no surprise to see the betting dominated almost exclusively by members of the teams who made it furthest in this season's UEFA Champions League.

Ousmane Dembele's prolific goalscoring form for PSG had earned him early backing in the markets, and he is now the favourite after PSG's stunning Champions League victory. There was a thought he could have been upstaged by fellow marksman Lautaro Martinez, who proved himself a matchwinner for fellow Champions League finalists Inter Milan, but in the showpiece in Munich, Inter were totally outclassed and Martinez's chances appear to have gone.

Lamine Yamal continues to excite at Barcelona, and although he ultimately came up short in the Champions League, he continues to trade off both his long-term potential on the world stage as well as his actual delivery in La Liga 2024/25. His La Liga title win with Barcelona briefly saw him claim favouritism in the race.

Cole Palmer has certainly entered the race, too, albeit he remains an outside contender. His performances in the FIFA Club World Cup helped him win the Best Player Award for the tournament, and we know how well players seem to fare in the Ballon d'Or after performing in major UEFA or FIFA-led tournaments.

A goalkeeper has not won the award since Russian great Lev Yashin back in 1963, but Gianluigi Donnarumma has been exceptional between the posts at the Parc des Princes and deserves to be in this elite company.

The glamour positions of a list packed with strikers and midfielders may ultimately cost him top honours, but he looks to have more chance than Kylian Mbappe, whose inclusion in the top candidates is as much about his name as it is his performances for Real Madrid this season.

Mohamed Salah could make it a back-to-back Premier League winner for the first time ever after Rodri's success for Manchester City in 2024. 

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MORE: Check out The Sporting News' full Ballon d'Or Rankings for 2025 award | When is the Ballon d'Or 2025?

Ballon d'Or Feminin 2025 potential winners, candidates and nominees rankings

As well as the Ballon d'Or for the best male player of the year, the September ceremony will also see the best female player crowned for 2025 with the Feminin award — and England's victorious Euro-winning Lionesses are sure to be well represented. 

Here are the top players in contention for the Ballon d'Or Feminin. The award is decided based on performances from the 2024/25 season as opposed to the calendar year.

Lucy Bronze (Chelsea and England)

Bronze garnished one of the great careers of her era by winning the English domestic treble with an indomitable Chelsea side, even scoring the WSL title-clinching goal for Sonia Bompastor's side at Manchester United before going on to play all of the Euros with a fractured tibia as England claimed the trophy.

Mariona Caldentey (Arsenal and Spain)

It could easily have been Caldentey celebrating in Basel, as opposed to her Arsenal team-mates wearing white after she opened the scoring in the Euro 2025 final. Her switch from Barcelona to Arsenal lent a cinematic quality to her lifting the Champions League for a fourth consecutive year, while 16 goals and seven assists helped the Gunners to second place in the WSL. Caldentey was crowned WSL Player of the Year.

Alexia Putellas (Barcelona and Spain)

A knee injury nightmare has hindered Putellas terribly since her back-to-back Ballon d'Or triumphs but the attacking midfielder got back to somewhere approaching her majestic best last season.

She weighed in with 27 goals and 21 assists in Barcelona's treble season and started Euro 2025 in blistering form as Spain romped through the group stage. Her knockout performances dipped slightly, although it was a surprise to see Putellas hauled off with the final on the line.

Chloe Kelly (Arsenal and England)

It was impossible to envisage Kelly being in this conversation as her Manchester City career circled the drain in January. But the England forward got the move she needed to save her season and won the Champions League with Arsenal, bringing her career back to where it all began.

Perhaps it's a stretch to put a player who featured as an impact substitute so high up this list, but Kelly's contributions from the bench as England launched comeback after comeback to claim Euros glory are impossible to ignore. 

Aitana Bonmati (Barcelona and Spain)

You could lazily dismiss this season a drop-off from Bonmati. No Champions League and that jaw-dropping penalty failure in the Euros final shootout. Nevertheless, it's important to remember the masterful midfielder was deservedly named Player of the Tournament, and after being hospitalised with viral meningitis beforehand.

The 27-year-old remains the best player in the world, the standout for the most dominant club team and the standout international side. Falling just short of perfection this time around should not take her off the top step of the podium.

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How is the Ballon d'Or decided? Explaining criteria

There are three main criteria that France Football has instructed voters to consider when crafting their list of potential winners:

  1. Individual performance, decisive impact, and impressive character
  2. Team achievements and collective success
  3. Sportsmanship and the player's class, on and off the pitch

This means that not only does an individual's raw output matter, but also how well they contribute to their team's collective success, and the manner in which they conduct themselves.

What is NOT meant to be considered is past achievements or global status. Thus, players who have won the award before are not supposed to be given a higher platform simply because of career success beyond the indicated time period.

The Ballon d'Or, in theory, is meant simply to recognise the best player from the given time period and nothing more. That given time period has changed in recent years, however. Originally meant to produce the best player from the last calendar year, France Football recently changed the consideration timeframe to fit the European season. Thus, consideration is taken from the start of August through the end of the competitive summer tournaments.

For the 2024/25 season, that means the consideration period begins at the start of league campaigns in August 2024 and runs through the end of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup.

Peter Marshall

Peter Marshall has worked in sports media for more than two decades, covering everything from boxing, F1 and tennis to the World Cup and Olympics.