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Real Madrid vs. Marseille prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for UEFA Champions League opener

Kyle Bonn

Real Madrid vs. Marseille prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for UEFA Champions League opener image

Perfect through the first four games of La Liga play to position themselves atop the table, Real Madrid get their UEFA Champions League campaign under way as they host French giants Marseille at the Santiago Bernabeu on Tuesday.

Los Blancos have been steadfast under Xabi Alonso, still waiting for a number of injured players to make their way back into the squad. Jude Bellingham and Eduardo Camavinga have returned to training but may need more time to sort out match fitness, while Antonio Rudiger won't return for a number of weeks.

 

Madrid have secured gritty, if not exactly pretty, victories in league play. The former Madrid midfielder has effectively rotated his squad with plug-and-play substitutions, which have worked thus far, favouring an imbalanced setup that allows Kylan Mbappe freedom up top. Javascript Ad Tag: 35

Marseille, meanwhile, have alternated victories and defeats to begin the Ligue 1 season. They added USMNT star Tim Weah in the transfer window, plus free agent Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, but have still been shut out by both Rennes and Lyon.

MORE: Predicted lineups, team news, and latest injury updates ahead of Real Madrid vs. Marseille

Real Madrid vs. Marseille prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Real Madrid (-280 on DraftKings)
  • Score prediction: Real Madrid 2-0 Marseille

Real Madrid have snuffed out games with great effect this season, and when faced with adversity, have managed to pull through. Alonso is one of the game's great leaders when things get difficult, and even if Marseille make it tough for Madrid in this game, they should pull through.

Los Blancos are in a position where they can coast through a soft fixture list until the gauntlet in late October, when they will face Juventus, Barcelona, and Liverpool in the span of 12 days, so now is the time for fine-tuning. Madrid are in good form, and there's no reason that should change, even if it's far from beautiful on the pitch.

 DraftKings
(USA)
Real Madrid win-280
Draw+475
Marseille win+650
Both teams
to score
Y: -155
N: +120
Over / Under
3.5 goals
O: +105
U: -135
Real Madrid
-1.5 goals
-105
Marseille
+1.5 goals
-130

Real Madrid vs. Marseille match facts

  • Date: Tuesday, September 16, 2025
  • Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
  • Location: Santiago Bernabeu (Madrid, Spain)
  • Referee: Irfan Peljto (BIH)
  • Last meeting: Marseille 1-3 Real Madrid (Dec. 8, 2009 | Champions League)

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

Real Madrid vs. Marseille best bet

  • Pick: Real Madrid to win to nil
  • Odds: +150 (DraftKings)

Alonso's stamp on this Real Madrid team has seen Los Blancos look to snuff the life out of opponents with possession, and they have been effective in doing so to this point. Even in matches where they allowed goals to Mallorca and Real Sociedad, they were largely successful in controlling the game where possible.

Marseille, meanwhile, are still figuring things out. Mason Greenwood and Aubameyang have torn weaker teams to shreds but have been quieted by the better sides. Madrid should manage to keep a lid on this game effectively, especially with Dean Huijsen at the helm along the back line before he sits for a one-game red card suspension in league play.

Real Madrid vs. Marseille prop bet

  • Pick: Each team to take 4+ corners
  • Odds: +110 on DraftKings

For all their possessional control under Alonso, Madrid have, incredibly, been out-cornered this season in four La Liga matches by 20 this season. Much of that deficit came against Real Sociedad when they were down a man for 60 minutes, but it's still a notable feature of their tactical approach.

Marseille, meanwhile, average almost eight corners a match in Ligue 1 play against lower-level opposition and should manage to generate four efforts of their own even in a match where they are unlikely to have too much of the ball. If they are chasing the game at any point, their desperation to get a goal should generate some verticality.

Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.