Who will be Premier League top scorer in 2022/23? Betting odds, expert tips and predictions for Golden Boot

Winning the top scorer award in the star-studded Premier League is a tough enough proposition, but it's about to get even tougher in 2022/23. The top clubs have not been slow when it comes to adding elite forward talent during the summer transfer window. 

Last season, Liverpool's Mohamed Salah and Tottenham's Son Heung-min were engaged in a fascinating race for the golden boot that went down to the final day of the season. They ultimately shared the award, with Son bagging a brace on the final day of the season to momentarily take the lead, only for Salah to net late and catch the Spurs star.

Those two will be firmly in the mix for this year's award as well, alongside a host of other contenders up and down the Premier League table.

New Manchester City striker Erling Haaland joins the defending league champions as one of the world's most promising young strikers, while Son's teammate, Harry Kane, is a recent winner of the award and will look for yet another prolific season.

Salah's new teammate, Darwin Nunez, is also thought to be a serious contender after topping the charts in Portugal, while the future of five-time Ballon d'Or winner Cristiano Ronaldo at Manchester United remains unclear.

Near the other end of the table, Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic scored an incredible 43 league goals in the Championship last season, and if the Whites can get him going in the top flight, they'll have a great chance at securing Premier League safety.

Gabriel Jesus is high on the list as well, having made the switch to Arsenal from Man City after Haaland's arrival.

MORE: How will Erling Haaland fit in at Man City?

Premier League golden boot odds 2022/23

Odds as of Aug. 4th

* Did not play in the Premier League in 2021/22

Predictions for Premier League 2022-23 Golden Boot

There are three factors that play into which players have the best chance of landing the league's top scorer award: number of chances, finishing ability, and penalty taking. It sounds obvious, but players who get a lot of chances, finish those chances, and get opportunities from the penalty spot are the most likely to finish at the top of the scoring charts.

Over the last few years, Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy are the best examples of this trifecta coming together to crown a Golden Boot winner. In 2016/17, Kane only played in 30 of his team's 38 matches, but he racked up 29 goals by collecting 19.82 xG (Expected Goals), outperforming that total by a whopping +9.18 (a sign of his finishing skills), and bagging five penalties to win that year's award.

Across the 2019/20 campaign, Vardy collected 18.9 xG, outperformed that by +4.10, and scored four times from the spot.

Sometimes, a player may not need all three factors to come together if they excel at one or two of them. Son Heung-min last season didn't score a single penalty, as his teammate Kane is on penalty duties for Spurs. However, Son outperformed his xG by over six goals, and his chances were of high quality, at a fantastic 0.198 xG per shot taken.

MORE: Final Premier League Golden Boot rankings of 2021-22

Premier League Golden Boot best bets

With the above factors in mind, we can eliminate some choices from the sportsbooks' list.

Manchester City have so many attacking options, and sorting through them can be messy. Erling Haaland is the only viable option in the squad for the crown, as the others will likely share too many goalscoring chances to have a hope of the award.

Haaland out-performed his xG totals in Bundesliga play by a combined +12.48 across his three top-flight seasons prior to his move to Man City, and he was a perfect six-for-six from the penalty spot last year. The Norwegian has to be considered a contender, but his use in Pep Guardiola's tactical shape is to this point an unknown.

Gabriel Jesus got off to a flying start for in Arsenal preseason, and he looks to be a great option, especially given how Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang performed in this side not too long ago.

Still, Jesus is a serial Expected Goals underperformer, falling well short of his mark in every single season at Man City. Over six campaigns, Jesus racked up a 76.05 xG tally, yet scored just 58 goals, a massive 18-goal differential in the negative. Until he can finish at a high rate and not simply rely on a high volume of service, he cannot be the selection here.

As a three-time winner of the award, Mohamed Salah is of course in play, although his finishing has never been of the supreme quality of some others, instead relying on a wealth of chances and a few penalties to keep him high on the list.

His new Liverpool teammate, Darwin Nunez, has to also be considered a solid choice, outperforming his xG last year by a staggering +10.27 and, like Haaland, he was perfect in six penalty chances.

Nunez's presence will cut into Diogo Jota's minutes, who can be discarded as a realistic option.

Cristiano Ronaldo has relied his entire career on a wealth of good chances and penalties, and the chances dried up last season with Manchester United. His 17.21 xG was the lowest of his career by far since Expected Goals became a metric in 2014. And the biggest question of all is his future at United, with the Portuguese superstar still wanting out.

The emergence of Son Heung-min at Tottenham as a goalscoring threat has cut into Harry Kane's chances, and the England star also had the first xG underperformance of his career last season. A return to his best finishing should be on the cards, giving him a shot at a return to the top of the charts.

At Chelsea, Raheem Sterling will take time to integrate into the side, a struggle laid bare in a poor preseason for the Blues. Kai Havertz has not reached the 2,000 league minutes mark in his two years at Stamford Bridge and has underperformed his xG in both as well.

TSN PICK: It's a risk selecting a new player to the league, but Darwin Nunez (+1100 with DraftKings) is too good to pass up. He's a spectacular finisher on a team that creates chances en masse, and he can take penalties. Although whether it's him or Salah taking them at Liverpool remains to be seen.

MORE: How Son Heung-min emerged to win the prestigious Golden Boot

Best longshot for Premier League Golden Boot

Breaking down the longshots is another difficult task given they're longshots for a reason and none truly have a chance at topping the charts unless all the stars align.

Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic will be a popular choice after his incredible Championship season, but his Premier League history is poor and his target-man skills haven't translated to the English top flight.

Man United playmaker Bruno Fernandes is a streaky goalscorer and has other playmaking duties to focus on. Chelsea attacker Timo Werner racked up a higher xG in his final year at RB Leipzig (23.45) than he has accumulated in his first two years at Chelsea combined (19.60), with a 6.17 mark last year producing a meager four-goal return.

There are a few players, however, who stand out as remote possibilities.

Callum Wilson has never been a great finisher, but his .246 xG per shot mark since joining Newcastle is outlandish, meaning he's getting great opportunities. If he can stay healthy, he should produce a great return given the improvement in the Magpies' squad.

While Nunez could take Liverpool to new heights, it also could be a season for Luis Diaz to explode in place of the departing Sadio Mane. While Diaz didn't display great finishing in his first half-season with Liverpool, or even a player who gets great opportunities, he's instead a volume shooter, taking a huge 3.55 shots per 90 mins in Premier League play.

If Diaz can pair that with the finishing he showed with former club Porto, scoring 13 goals on 8.7 xG last season before his transfer, he could be a surprise.

TSN PICK: The presence of Nunez hurts his chances at topping the goalscoring list, but the volume of Luis Diaz (+4000 via DraftKings) is just too much to ignore. If the Colombian can return to his Porto goalscoring form, he will be a major presence in the Liverpool attack.

Premier League Top Scorers (since 1992-93)

Below are the top scorers in each season of the Premier League era (since 1992-93). Andy Cole and Alan Shearer share the record for most goals scored in a single campaign, with 34.

Thierry Henry finished atop the Premier League scoring chart in four different seasons, more than any player all-time. Shearer and Harry Kane follow with three scoring titles each, with Kane figuring as the most recent top scorer after scoring 23 goals in 2020/21.

Premier League 2022/23 TV channels, live streams

UK: Matches are carried across Sky Sports and BT Sport streaming and TV platforms, with select matches on Amazon Prime.

USA: Select matches are televised on USA Network (English) and Telemundo or Universo (Spanish), and all three channels can be streamed on fuboTV. The rest of the matches are streamed on NBC platform Peacock for subscribers.

Canada: Every Premier League game streams live and on demand exclusively via fuboTV.

Australia: Fans in Australia can stream matches live and on demand on Optus Sport.