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Man City vs. Man United prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Manchester derby in Premier League

Kyle Bonn

Man City vs. Man United prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Manchester derby in Premier League image

The earliest Premier League meeting between the Manchester rivals since 2016 will take place this weekend as Manchester City play host to Manchester United at the Etihad in a Sunday showcase affair.

Both teams come into this match with questions within the squad, albeit different kinds.

For Man City, the issues are injury-related, with Rayan Cherki, Mateo Kovacic, and Omar Marmoush out for the match while a litany of other players, including Savinho and Josko Gvardiol, are uncertain. Javascript Ad Tag: 35

 

United boss Ruben Amorim, meanwhile, has yet to truly integrate his new attacking signings into the squad, and thus has weekly lineup questions before every match. The biggest concern has been the play of Benjamin Sesko, as the new star striker, short of full fitness after a disrupted preseason, has not received the trust of Amorim and thus far been relegated to substitute duties. They are also without Matheus Cunha who is out injured already.

Both clubs have won just one of their first three Premier League games, giving this matchup a bit of a desperate feel as both sides clamor for points to avoid an early hole from which they must climb out.

MORE: Predicted lineups, team news, and latest injury updates ahead of Man City vs. Man United

Man City vs. Man United prediction, odds

  • Moneyline lean: Draw (+310 on DraftKings)
  • Score prediction: Man City 2-2 Man United
  • Best bet: Man United double chance (+115)

The fact that both teams appear heavily flawed to start the season renders the result of this match difficult to call.

While City are heavily favoured in this game, and the issues around United's future remain a highly discussed narrative, do not discount the Red Devils, who have avoided defeat over 90 minutes in four straight games against their cross-town rivals across all competitions. As part of that, Ruben Amorim has not lost to Man City while in charge of United, one of his few spotless records during his time at Old Trafford.

The United attack has been spotty at best to start the season, but they have also massively underperformed their expected goals to this point, and at least some regression to the mean is expected. If that comes against a Man City team that has conceded over 1.0 xG per 90 minutes through the first three league games, they could profit greatly.

 DraftKings
(USA)
Man City win-145
Draw+310
Man United win+350
Both teams
to score
Y: -180
N: +135
Over / Under
3.5 goals
O: +135
U: -180
Man City
-0.5 goals
-160
Man United
+0.5 goals
+110

Man City vs. Man United match facts

  • Date: Sunday, September 14, 2025
  • Kickoff Time: 4:30 p.m. local (11:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. PT)
  • Location: Etihad Stadium (Manchester, England)
  • Referee: Anthony Taylor
  • VAR: John Brooks
  • Last meeting: Man United 0-0 Man City (Apr. 6, 2025 | Premier League)

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

Man City vs. Man United best bet

  • Pick: Erling Haaland 2+ shots on target
  • Odds: -115 (DraftKings)

Erling Haaland has gone three straight games against Manchester United without a goal, failing to net since March of 2024. The issue is a lack of volume: he racked up just three total shots over those matches.

Pep Guardiola has made a point to get him more opportunities this season, as Haaland has managed 4.7 total shots per game through the first three matches of 2025/26, a huge increase over last year's total of 3.5 per match. While three games is a small sample size, there's a clear intention in City's play.

Unfortunately, Haaland's total shots market is totally juiced, needing him to fire off five in the match to break even, but expecting him to strike two on frame is far from unreasonable. He is averaging 1.7 shots on target per match this season with the increased focus, and he produced a brilliant international performance for Norway just days prior.

Man City vs. Man United prop bet

While Tijjani Reijnders has not been able to follow up his stellar Premier League debut with any more end product, it's not been for a lack of chances. The Netherlands international has been great so far for City, with at least one shot in all three Premier League matches and a total of eight chance contributions (shots or chances created).

Considering Marmoush and Cherki are both out injured, and Bernardo Silva's ability to contribute has waned significantly with age, much of the creative responsibilities will again fall on Reijnders to get Haaland on the ball in dangerous areas, while himself benefitting from the attention on Haaland as well.

Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.