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Arsenal vs. Man City prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League match

Kyle Bonn

Arsenal vs. Man City prediction, odds, betting tips and best bets for Premier League match image

Two Premier League title contenders clash in a Sunday spotlight from London as Arsenal host Manchester City just five matches into the new domestic campaign.

Both sides are already chasing defending champions Liverpool in the standings after the first four games. With the Reds being the only top flight side left with a perfect record, these two sides can't afford to let the gap increase any further.

 

Arsenal have suffered a number of injuries to attacking players already this season, with Martin Odegaard, Bukayo Saka, and Kai Havertz down for another few weeks. Thus, their summer spending spree is already paying dividends, as Eberechi Eze and Noni Madueke have been deployed.

City, meanwhile, are looking for revenge for the heavy 5-1 defeat they suffered back in April in their last trip to the Emirates. Pep Guardiola's side has struggled for form this season though, beaten by both Brighton and Tottenham already.

MORE: Predicted lineups, team news, and latest injury updates ahead of Arsenal vs. Man City

Arsenal vs. Man City prediction, odds

Manchester City did not exactly impress against a 10-man Napoli side midweek, as they still remain spotty in the attack. They generated 2.18 xG on 23 shots after the early red card, but only two of their opportunities were classified as "big chances," able to rack up quantity but remained short on quality.

That tracks well with what Man City have put up so far this season in Premier League play. Pep Guardiola's side lead the league in expected goals through four matches, but a lot of that comes from pummeling Wolves and Man United, two defensively porous sides.

A full-strength Arsenal side should manage to keep a lid on City's attack, as they have the last four times they've met, across which City scored just three times, including two in the game Arsenal were reduced to 10 men just before halftime. This becomes even more likely if Rodri cannot go.

 DraftKings
(USA)
Arsenal win-110
Draw+275
Man City win+290
Both teams
to score
Y: -150
N: +115
Over / Under
2.5 goals
O: -130
U: +100
Arsenal
-0.5 goals
-120
Man City
+0.5 goals
-125

Arsenal vs. Man City match facts

  • Date: Sunday, September 21, 2025
  • Kickoff Time: 4:30 p.m. local (11:30 a.m. ET / 8:30 a.m. PT)
  • Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
  • Referee: Stuart Attwell, VAR: Jarred Gillett
  • Last meeting: Arsenal 5-1 Man City (Feb. 2, 2025 | Premier League)

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

Arsenal vs. Man City best bet

  • Pick: Under 2.5 total goals
  • Odds: +100 (DraftKings)

Expecting these two teams to keep a lid on things often feels like fighting against a rising tide, but there's plenty of reason to believe this match could be cagey.

First and foremost, Arsenal have one of the best defences in the entire world, capable of hemming in an opponent with a variety of tactics. They can defend in a block, possess the ball to squeeze the air out of a game, and track back in transition to stop a counter.

Man City, meanwhile, have very little support for Erling Haaland up front. While Jeremy Doku might be showing signs of life, he still doesn't appear to be capable of breaking down the Gunners, while Rayan Cherki and Omar Marmoush are both out injured.

While the last two matches between these sides have featured a combined 11 goals, the three games before that saw just three.

Arsenal vs. Man City prop bet

We got to see on Saturday what desperation from both sides to avoid dropping points can do to a match, as Manchester United and Chelsea saw five yellow cards and two reds. Granted both of those teams are far more mistake-prone than these, but the desperation will be there.

With Liverpool already on a perfect 15 points from the first five league games at the top of the table, neither side can afford to see themselves buried by any greater deficit than they already face. Man City are often near the bottom of the league in fouls and bookings, but Arsenal have been a bit loose this year, in the middle when it comes to fouls and bookings so far in 2025/26.

The match will be helmed by Stuart Attwell, who has issued 5.67 yellow cards per game through three matches officiated so far, the second-most of any Premier League official in the young season. While that number represents a sizable jump from his disciplinary tendencies last season, it's also been coming. He issued 28 cards through the final six games of 2024/25, putting him right in view of this total.

Attwell also hasn't officiated either of these teams in quite a while, so an unfamiliarity could see him react to events rather than anticipate them.

Kyle Bonn

Kyle Bonn is a Syracuse University broadcast journalism graduate with over a decade of experience covering soccer globally. Kyle specializes in soccer tactics and betting, with a degree in data analytics. Kyle also does TV broadcasts for Wake Forest soccer, and has had previous stops with NBC Soccer and IMG College. When not covering the game, he has long enjoyed loyalty to the New York Giants, Yankees, and Fulham. Kyle enjoys playing racquetball and video games when not watching or covering sports.