The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in the midst of a tight playoff race and have very little margin for error the rest of the way.
The Buccaneers enter their Week 15 game against the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday night with the same record as the Carolina Panthers, although Tampa Bay is still technically in first place in the division due to the common games tie-breaker.
Because they own the top spot in the NFC South for now, the Bucs are in the No. 4 spot in the conference playoff picture.
Here's a closer look at the NFC South and wild-card standings going into Thursday night, as well as what will happen with a Bucs win or loss versus the Falcons.
NFC South standings
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6) - vs. ATL in Week 15
2. Carolina Panthers (7-6) - at NO in Week 15
3. Atlanta Falcons (4-9)
4. New Orleans Saints (3-10)
The Saints and Falcons are both eliminated from playoff contention, so this is a two-team race between the Bucs and Falcons.
Because the Bucs and Panthers haven't played one another yet, and because they have the same divisional record at 2-1, it goes to the third tie-breaker for now, which is record in common games.
Tampa Bay owns that advantage there. Both teams have played nine games against common opponents and the Bucs are 5-4 while the Panthers are 4-5.
But, bear in mind, the Bucs and Panthers have two meetings in the final four weeks, with one in Week 16 and another in Week 18, so that head-to-head tie-breaker is still very much in play.
Both teams also have three games left against divisional opponents, so the division record tie-breaker is also still on the table if Tampa Bay and Carolina go on to split their two meetings.
With a win on Thursday night: the Bucs will maintain their first-place lead in the NFC South no matter what the Panthers do on Sunday.
With a loss: the Bucs would fall to second place in the NFC South for now but can climb back into first place on Sunday if the Panthers lose.
If the Panthers win in this scenario, they will enter Week 16 in first place while also grabbing a one-game advantage in the division record tie-breaker. Carolina would also even things up in the common games tie-breaker since they play the New Orleans Saints.
NFC wild-card standings
| Rank | Team | Record |
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 10-3 |
| 2 | Green Bay Packers | 9-3-1 |
| 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 8-5 |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7-6 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 10-3 |
| 6 | San Francisco 49ers | 9-4 |
| 7 | Chicago Bears | 9-4 |
| 8 | Detroit Lions | 8-5 |
| 9 | Carolina Panthers | 7-6 |
| 10 | Dallas Cowboys | 6-6-1 |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | 5-8 |
Because the teams behind the Vikings are all eliminated from playoff contention, we didn't include them here.
The Bucs enter Thursday night in the No. 4 spot in the conference playoff picture because of their first-place position in the division.
If they lose and the Panthers win this week, the Bucs would drop out of a playoff spot entirely and could drop all the way to the No. 10 spot when the week is said and done if the Dallas Cowboys win their matchup.
If the Bucs lose, the Cowboys lose and the Panthers win, Tampa Bay would enter Week 16 in the No. 9 spot in the conference and would have a hill to climb with Detroit and Chicago or Green Bay in front of them.
This is not a situation the Bucs want to put themselves in, as it creates a steeper climb to the postseason than the division presents.
It's pretty much NFC South title or bust for the Bucs' playoff chances.
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