The New England Patriots have gone six seasons without playing in the Super Bowl. They're looking to get back there for the first time in the post-Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era when they travel to face the Denver Broncos in Sunday's AFC championship game.
That was the same matchup 10 years ago, when Peyton Manning outdueled Brady with a big assist from the Broncos' defense, allowing Denver to advance to win Super Bowl 50. Now a trip to Super Bowl 60 is on the line, instead with Brady's true successor, Drake Maye, battling one-time Patriots fourth-round draft pick Jarrett Stidham. Here's breaking down whether Denver has a real chance vs. New England without starting QB Bo Nix:
MORE 2026 NFL PLAYOFF NEWS:
- 3 reasons why every team remaining will (and won't) win Super Bowl
- Predicting the Super Bowl 60 matchup
- Breaking down Seahawks vs. Rams NFC Championship matchup
Patriots vs. Broncos picks, predictions against spread
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount Plus
The Patriots have had breaks with their schedule in their massive turnaround from 4-13 to 13-4 under coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. McDaniels has been a huge reason for Maye's second-year breakout into an MVP-caliber QB, while Vrabel has gotten the young defense to emerge as a playmaking force.
New England was able to win with Maye having off days against the tough Texans and Chargers pass defenses because of how much havoc it created with pressure and takeaways on counterparts C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert. Maye still came through with plays in the fourth quarter to help the Patriots win both the wild-card and divisional playoff games in comfortable fashion.
Patriots offense vs. Broncos' defense
The Broncos had some real breakdowns vs. The balance and explosiveness of the Bills, a good sign for Maye and the Patriots' running game. The Patriots' offense will make adjustments to help the pass protection by getting the ball out more quickly and attacking the edges with the run.
Advantage: Patriots
MORE: Stats to know in Drake Maye vs. Matthew Stafford MVP debate
Broncos' offense vs. Patriots' defense
There is a big drop-off from Nix to Stidham, even in a good system under Sean Payton. He doesn't have the same arm, improv passing ability or mobility to take off and run for big gains. He also can't replace the clutch intangibles. The Broncos' running game sputtered vs. The Bills, and the Patriots have a much better run defense.
Advantage: Patriots
MORE: How Bo Nix suffered season-ending ankle injury in win over Bills
X-factors
The Patriots seem to have good fortune on their side all season. The Broncos had a lot of luck favoring them in close games late in games and now that's evened out in the cruelest way with Nix going down.
Advantage: Patriots
Special teams
The Broncos have veteran Wil Lutz coming through on field goals but rookie punter Jeremy Crawshaw is inconsistent. The Patriots are solid with rookie Andy Borregales and a good punter, Bryce Baringer. They are also more dangerous in the return game thanks to Marcus Jones on punts and running back TreVeyon Henderson on kickoffs.
Advantage: Patriots
Coaching
Payton has done a remarkable job in two years with the Broncos ever since he moved on from Russell Wilson and could roll with Bo Nix, perfect for his offense. Stidham is not. Vrabel is headed toward coach of the year and McDaniels is back to his Brady-like ways with Maye. He will get the better of Vance Joseph calling defense for the Broncos.
Advantage: Patriots
MORE: Who deserves to win NFL Coach of the Year this season?
Intangibles
The Broncos might be inspired by trying to rally without Nix and embrace their new big underdog status. Payton will put out all the stops with Stidham with everything he's got and the defense will attack for Joseph. The Broncos are most dangerous for the upset because of lowered expectations and nothing really to lose.
Advantage: Broncos
AFC championship game prediction
The Patriots get a break with Stidham, who never threw a pass for them and hasn't thrown a pass as a Bronco the past two seasons behind Nix. His last action came in 2023, struggling in place of a lame-duck Russell Wilson. Stidham can sling it, but he offers little experience, has no clutch qualities and is a limited improviser and runner.
Maye is also green, but now he has two big playoff games under his belt. No one can dispute that he's very young Brady-like in playing well off the defense and running game and knowing how to raise his game in the fourth quarter.
In the end, the Patriots beat the Chargers by 13 and the Texans by 12. They have preyed on lesser teams and QBs all season and Maye should have more confidence to deliver against a tough defensive draw again in Denver.
The Broncos have had a special season but it was dependent a lot on the late-game heroics of Nix, all the way through the thrilling overtime win over the Bills last week. There's no reason to believe Stidham can re-create the same kind of unique magic, even if he's well prepared to run the offense under Payton.
This is a time for superior QB play and great coaching. The Patriots have that clear advantage with Maye and Vrabel, channeling Brady and Belichick.
Pick: Patriots win 24-13 and cover the spread, with the total going UNDER.