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NFL wild-card playoff picks against the spread: Eagles edge 49ers, Steelers top Texans, Jaguars oust Bills

Vinnie Iyer

NFL wild-card playoff picks against the spread: Eagles edge 49ers, Steelers top Texans, Jaguars oust Bills image

After 272 regular-season games in 2025, the winner of Super Bowl 60 comes down to a lucky 13 more contests. Super wild-card weekend is a great way to kick it off, with six games in three days to determine the divisional round matchups.

Without a clear-cut favorite from the top seeds to the final wild-card teams, the playoffs figure to be as difficult to predict as all the surprises that led up to a fresh field of 14 teams.

Here's breaking down our best bets to survive and advance in another round of picks and predictions against the spread:

MORE 2026 NFL PLAYOFFS:

NFL wild-card playoff picks against the spread

  • NFC Game of the Week: 49ers at Eagles (-4, 45.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers' offense will do its best to make up for an injury-riddled defense. Brock Purdy will lean a lot on Christian McCaffrey as it will be difficult to operate the downfield passing game on the Eagles inside. Jalen Hurts should open up the offense to exploit a wilted pass defense, ensuring the Eagles stay alive in their Super Bowl repeat attempt.

Pick: Eagles win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.

MORE: Eagles blow chance at No. 2 seed in NFC with bad loss to Commanders

  • AFC Game of the Week: Texans (-3.5, 39.5 o/u) at Steelers

Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN

The Texans' defense is one of the playoffs' strongest units. But it can be vulnerable with teams passing aggressively downfield. Aaron Rodgers should unleash his big arm with DK Metcalf back and the Steelers' defense will do its part to make this their style of ugly, low-scoring physical game. Pittsburgh's home field is key again in cooling off Houston.

Pick: Steelers win 20-17.

MORE: Can Aaron Rodgers end his playoff win drought against Texans?

  • Lock of the Week: Patriots (-3.5, 46 o/u) over Chargers 

Sunday 8 p.m. ET, NBC/Peacock

Drake Maye is tasting his first playoff action but Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels will prepare him well for the big moment. He will keep getting support of big playmakers at running back and wide receiver. Justin Herbert has taken some lumps with his offensive line cracking and the tough running hasn't bee there for Jim Harbaugh, making this a tricky road matchup. The Patriots should bolt past the visitors by the third quarter.

Pick: Patriots win 27-17 and cover the spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) scores a touchdown on a keeper during the first quarter of an NFL football matchup at EverBank Stadium, Sunday, Dec. 14, 2025, in Jacksonville, Fla

© Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

  • Upset of the Week: Jaguars (+1.5, 51.5 o/u) over Bills

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Jaguars are the better all-around team. They have the hotter, more consistent quarterback in Trevor Lawrence battling Josh Allen, who has been up and down all season and struggled on the road. The Jaguars have the stout top run defense to contain James Cook, too, while Travis Etienne should find plenty of room to rumble on the Bills. Liam Coen keeps up the great season with a big win in Duval, finished off by Josh Hines-Allen.

Pick: Jaguars win 34-27.

  • Rams (-10.5, 46.5 o/u) at Panthers

 Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Fox

The Rams lost this matchup in the regular season, 31-28 in Week 13. Matthew Stafford couldn't recover enough from his two interceptions, including a pick six, while Bryce Young enjoyed the best winning performance of his career. The Rams will clean up plenty for the rematch under Sean McVay with the Panthers' offense fizzling out of late. The Rams' electric tuneup against the Cardinals in Week 18 will pay off with another rout.

Pick: Rams win 34-17 and cover the spread.

MORE: How Panthers won NFC South despite losing to Buccaneers

  • Packers at Bears (-1, 46 o/u)

Saturday 8 p.m. ET,  Amazon Prime Video

The Packers limp into the rubber match from the regular season, when they won a 28-21 test at Lambeau Field and lost a 22-16 overtime thriller at Soldier Field. Green Bay and Chicago are evenly matched but the Bears have more defensive playmaking potential with the Packers missing Micah Parsons. The Packers also are banged-up and rusty, while the Bears rebound from a rough Week 18 loss to the Lions with Caleb Williams sparking the offense earlier in the game.

Pick: Bears win 23-20 and cover the spread.

Stats of the Week 

  • Week 18 record straight up: 9-7
  • Week 18 record against the spread: 6-10
  • 2025-2026 season record straight up: 165-103
  • 2025-2026 season record against the spread: 132-136
Senior Writer

Editorial Team