The 2018 NFL season is finally here. New coaches, free-agent signings, rookies and injuries have reshaped teams from the end of last season to the start of Week 1. But which teams have the best chances to make the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 53?
Entering Week 1, every team has a theoretical chance to reach the playoffs. AccuScore has simulated every regular-season game 10,000 times to predict the probability for each team to reach the postseason. The table below shows those probabilities based on William Hill odds for each team.
WEEK 1 NFL PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Each week, AccuScore will update its 2018 NFL postseason forecast by simulating the entire NFL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 53. Below are the probabilities of making the NFL playoffs.
SIGN UP to watch every NFL game and RedZone during the 2018 season on DAZN
AccuScore's odds to make NFL playoffs
| Team | William Hill | AccuScore | Diff. |
| New England Patriots | 94% | 92% | -2% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 67% | 86% | 20% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 60% | 77% | 17% |
| New Orleans Saints | 58% | 68% | 10% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 50% | 67% | 17% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 82% | 64% | -18% |
| Green Bay Packers | 65% | 64% | -2% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 40% | 63% | 23% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 58% | 52% | -6% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 68% | 52% | -15% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 71% | 51% | -21% |
| Miami Dolphins | 15% | 47% | 32% |
| Denver Broncos | 25% | 45% | 20% |
| Carolina Panthers | 41% | 39% | -2% |
| Tennessee Titans | 40% | 38% | -2% |
| Houston Texans | 52% | 37% | -15% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 42% | 36% | -6% |
| Indianapolis Colts | 23% | 31% | 8% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 43% | 24% | -20% |
| New York Giants | 20% | 22% | 2% |
| Washington Redskins | 22% | 20% | -2% |
| Chicago Bears | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 31% | 18% | -13% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 42% | 18% | -24% |
| Detroit Lions | 27% | 18% | -9% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 18% | 15% | -4% |
| Oakland Raiders | 31% | 12% | -19% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 20% | 8% | -12% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 12% | 7% | -5% |
| New York Jets | 15% | 5% | -11% |
| Cleveland Browns | 17% | 3% | -14% |
| Buffalo Bills | 18% | 1% | -17% |
NFL playoff odds
Best value bets to reach NFL playoffs
Miami Dolphins: QB Ryan Tannehill returns to the helm of the Dolphins. Simulations expect him to continue where he left in 2016 before an injury cost him 2017. Miami is a borderline playoff team, mainly due to the rebuilding efforts of the Bills and Jets. Miami should get a few more wins from divisional rivals compared to last season when their division record was 2-4.
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens drafted QB Lamar Jackson to learn and eventually compete with Joe Flacco. They also revamped their receiver corps, which should improve their pass offense. There will be a tight race with the Steelers, but even if the Ravens finish second in the AFC North, they should take a wild-card spot.
L.A. Rams: Last season, the Rams scored the most points scored in the league and finished with an 11-5 record with very good plays from their sophomore QB Jared Goff. During the offseason, they bolstered the defense with experienced stars Aqib Talib and Ndamukong Suh. It would be a big disappointment if the Rams are not in the playoffs again this season.
MORE: 2018 NFL season preview
Worst value bets to reach NFL playoffs
Kansas City Chiefs: The Chiefs posted a 10-6 record and reached the playoffs last season. This time they start second-year QB Patrick Mahomes and it is a bit difficult to predict how he will perform. If the results are like most young QBs with only one game under their belt, it will be tough for the Chiefs to reach the playoffs.
Philadelphia Eagles: The defending Super Bowl champs are predicted to win their division and reach the playoffs, but the probability is not as high as the betting odds. In addition to unclarity at the QB position due to Carson Wentz's injury recovery, it is very difficult to predict back-to-back playoff appearances, let alone Super Bowl victories.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers finished last season with good run by winning six of their last seven games. It was a great showing from their QB Jimmy Garoppolo. He and a few other additions, like cornerback Richard Sherman, can improve the 49ers' record from last year, but they'll need to match the Rams to win the NFC West, or beat many tough teams in NFC North and NFC South to win the wild-card race.
AccuScore's NFL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.