Wild Card weekend features three matchups where the road team is the favorite.
Would you expect anything less? Last year, the home teams were 5-1. In the last two playoffs, the underdog is 3-3 on wild-card weekend.
Three road teams are favored this year. The Rams are double-digit favorites at Carolina – the game that will open the NFL playoffs on Saturday. Buffalo is favored at Jacksonville on Sunday, and the Texans are favored at Pittsburgh on Monday. Which home team – if any – will pull the so-called upset there?
The line in the Green Bay-Chicago grudge match also could fluctuate throughout the week leading up to the Saturday prime-time game. San Francisco travels to Philadelphia in a matchup of the last two NFC champions, and the Chargers travel to New England in the Sunday prime-time matchup.
We have three road teams winning this weekend. A look at our track record from the regular season:
- Straight up: 170-101-1
- Against the spread: 127-142-3
Here are our picks for Wild Card weekend:
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NFL picks, predictions for Wild Card weekend
- Los Angeles Rams (-10) at Carolina Panthers
Saturday, 4:30 p.m., Fox
Is this too much disrespect for the Panthers? Carolina beat Los Angeles 31-28 in Week 13. Bryce Young had 206 passing yards and three TDs to three different receivers in that game – and the defense took advantage of three turnovers. That was one of three games this season where Los Angeles had multiple turnovers – and they were 0-3 S/U in those games. Los Angeles should learn from that experience, and Matthew Stafford should get Davante Adams back this week to go along with Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and the NFL's best scoring offense. The Panthers were 3-1 ATS as an underdog of seven points or more, and that's a huge line for a road favorite in the postseason. Unless turnovers get in the way, however, Los Angeles will advance to the NFC divisional round.
Pick: Rams 28, Panthers 16
MORE: How Panthers won NFC South despite losing to Buccaneers
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-1)
Saturday, 8 p.m., Prime Video
The Packers and Bears played two instant classics in the regular season. Chicago had a plus-5 turnover ratio in its last four games, and Caleb Williams has helped push this team into the playoffs. Green Bay is stuck in a four-game losing streak, but Jordan Love will return for the first time since leaving the Week 16 matchup with a concussion. Matt LaFleur has to stay aggressive in the passing game – and if Love is on a heater the Packers absolutely can win this game on the road. Chicago will lean on the running game – and the Packers have to prove they can stop it. They have allowed 198 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry since Micah Parsons' injury. It's an all-in game on both sides, and Green Bay could lead at halftime, but the Bears find a way late.
Pick: Bears 24, Packers 21
- Buffalo Bills (-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS/Paramount+
Jacksonville will be a tough out for the Bills in a rowdy atmosphere. The Jaguars are 4-1 S/U at home in playoff games in franchise history, and Liam Coen has done a masterful job as a rookie coach with Trevor Lawrence, who had 12 TDs and one interception in his last five starts. So why is Buffalo favored? Josh Allen can carry a playoff run even though he took a career-high 40 sacks this season. The Bills still have a running game around James Cook that will prove vital on the road, and the playoff experience matters. Allen is 0-4 S/U in road playoff games – but three of those losses were against Kansas City. That big-game experience matters – and Buffalo finds a way in the highest-scoring game of the weekend.
Pick: Bills 31, Jaguars 28
- San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)
Sunday, 4:30 p.m., Fox
Will the 49ers be healthy enough here? Trent Williams (hamstring) and Ricky Pearsall (ankle, knee) missed Week 18, and their status will need to be monitored leading up to the showdown with the Eagles. Brock Purdy had a 73.4% completion percentage in San Francisco's last four games. Will the 49ers' run defense hold up? San Francisco allowed 145 rushing yards per game the last two weeks to the Bears and Seahawks, and Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley had a bye week to rest. How important is that rushing attack? Philadelphia was 4-0 S/U at home when it had 100 rushing yards or more, and 1-3 S/U when they did not hit that number. Opposing teams were 2-1 when they rushed for 130 yards or more at Philadelphia. Can Christian McCaffrey have a monster game here?
Pick: Eagles 26, 49ers 23
MORE: Eagles blow chance at No. 2 seed in NFC with bad loss to Commanders
- Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-3.5)
Sunday, 8 p.m., NBC, Peacock
The Chargers won four of their last five games – and they did that with a defense that created 11 turnovers in that stretch. Los Angeles was 5-3 S/U on the road this season, and this is a chance for Justin Herbert to earn his first playoff victory. Herbert had a 94.7 passer rating on the road this season, but he took 16 sacks in his last four starts. Those injuries on the offensive line have taken their toll. It's Drake Maye's first playoff start – and he is 5-3 with a 105.8 passer rating at Gillette Stadium. The weather will not be an overriding factor, and it's a fun coaching matchup between Jim Harbaugh and Mike Vrabel. New England is 5-2 ATS when favored by seven points or less.
Pick: Patriots 27, Chargers 20
- Houston Texans (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Monday, 8 p.m., ABC/ESPN
How will the Steelers carry the momentum from the dramatic victory against the Ravens in the regular-season finale? DK Metcalf will return, and TJ Watt (lung) returned in Week 18. The Texans allowed 15.4 points on the road this season – and C.J. Stroud is 2-0 in the wild-card round. The Steelers were 1-2 S/U as a home underdog this season – but the win was against Baltimore. How will Rodgers attack a Houston pass defense that ranked sixth in the NFL and did not allow more than 235 yards in a game this season? Pittsburgh was 3-3 S/U when Rodgers took three sacks or more – and Danielle Hunter (15 sacks) and Will Anderson Jr. (12 sacks) were the most-prolific sack tandem in the NFL this season.
Pick: Texans 23, Steelers 18
MORE: Can Aaron Rodgers ends his playoff win drought against Texans?