The Indianapolis Colts have not won the AFC South since 2014.
The Colts (8-3) have been one of the surprise teams in the NFL this season – but road losses to the Steelers in Week 9 and Chiefs in Week 12 have led to questions about their true value this season.
That could be answered Sunday against the Houston Texans — the team that has won the last two AFC South division titles. Houston (6-5) has the opportunity to climb back into the division race and win for a fourth straight season at Lucas Oil Stadium. Those last three games have been decided by a combined total of seven points, but the stage is set for one of those games that could define the stretch run in that division.
Keep in mind Jacksonville (7-4) isn't far behind. The Colts play the Jaguars in Week 14 and Week 17 before the season finale at Houston. This might just end up being the most-entertaining division race in the NFL over the next six weeks.
That game is one of the highlights of a Week 13 schedule that includes the Thanksgiving triple-headers with Packers-Lions, Chiefs-Cowboys and Bengals-Ravens.
Straight up: 116-61-1 (11-3 in Week 12)
Against the spread: 86-89-3 (4-9-1 in Week 12)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 13. Odds according to Caesars.
NFL picks, predictions for Week 13
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Thursday, 1 p.m., Fox
NFC North rivals meet – and the Packers beat the Lions on Thanksgiving in 2023. Green Bay limited the Lions to 46 rushing yards with three turnovers in Week 1. The Packers are 3-1-1 S/U on the road – but their offense will have to take more chances here.
Pick: Lions 28, Packers 20
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, 4:30 p.m.., CBS/Paramount
What will the Cowboys do for an encore after an amazing comeback against Philadelphia? The Chiefs are 1-4 S/U on the road this year – and Patrick Mahomes has averaged 45.5 passing attempts the last two weeks. Dak Prescott has 40 or more passing attempts in three home games this year. Dallas would be comfortable in a shootout.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Cowboys 24
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
Joe Burrow (toe) is in line to make his return this week, but it may be too late. Another loss would ensure a losing season for the Bengals, and the Ravens have allowed 13.4 points per game through a five-game winning streak. Baltimore has won the last four meetings in the series – but only one of those games was by more than seven points.
Pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 24
MORE NFL THANKSGIVING PICKS: Against the spread | Straight up
Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
Friday, 3 p.m., Prime Video
The Bears continue to win close games under Coach of the Year candidate Ben Johnson, but now the schedule gets more difficult. Caleb Williams has taken just five sacks through a four-game win streak. The Eagles are 4-1 S/U at home, but only one of those victories was by more than a touchdown.
Pick: Eagles 28, Bears 20
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Browns have won two of their last three games and Shedeur Sanders will get another start here. Myles Garrett has 13 of his 18 sacks in the last four games. Rain and snow is in the forecast, too. The Browns won 19-17 in the teams' last meeting in Cleveland. San Francisco gets out with a win on a short week — but keep in mind Cleveland is 4-0 ATS at home.
Pick: 49ers 20, Browns 14
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5) at Tennessee Titans
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
The Titans have lost three straight one-score games, and they just cannot get enough run support for rookie quarterback Cam Ward. Jacksonville's three road wins are by a combined total of nine points. Jacksonville has won five of the last six games in the series.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Titans 16
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Is there an AFC North upset at work where? The Colts are coming off a tough loss at Kansas City, and the Texans beat Buffalo in Week 12. There is a risk for over-reaction both ways, but Houston allows just 92.2 rushing yards per game. If they can limit opportunities for Jonathan Taylor, an upset is possible. DeMeco Ryans insists C.J. Stroud (concussion) will be the starter when he returns.
Pick: Texans 28, Colts 27
New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Dolphins had a bye week and are looking to continue a two-game winning streak. Tua Tagovailoa has seven TDs and seven interceptions in six home games. The Saints have not scored 20 points in a game since Week 5.
Pick: Dolphins 26, Saints 13
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Jets have averaged 12 points in two losses since the trade deadline, and they are the only team in the NFL without an interception this season. Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins can be methodical on the road behind the tag team of Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. The Falcons are 0-2 S/U on the road against AFC teams this season – which gives us a little pause.
Pick: Falcons 17, Jets 13
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Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
Will Baker Mayfield (shoulder) play? That is the immediate impact here. That would mean we would get Teddy Bridgewater against Jacoby Brissett in a battle of backup QBs. That makes the game a coin flip for teams trying to snap three-game losing streaks.
Pick: Buccaneers 21, Cardinals 19
Los Angeles Rams (-10) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox
The Rams have four road games in the final six weeks, and this one has a bit of a trap game feel to it before back-to-back games against the Lions and Rams. Carolina is on a short week, but the Panthers are 3-2 S/U at home in what has been an unpredictable season.
Pick: Rams 31, Panthers 22
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m., Fox
Sam Darnold faces the team that helped revive his career. The Vikings are struggling on offense with JJ McCarthy, who has taken five sacks in each of his last two road starts and is in concussion protocol. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS as an underdog. Darnold keeps the Seahawks in line in the NFC West.
Pick: Seahawks 33, Vikings 20
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Which Buffalo team will show up in Pittsburgh? The Bills have committed three turnovers each of the last three games, and the defense has been susceptible to the run. The Steelers are going to be a popular pick to cover here, even if Aaron Rodgers (wrist) does not play. The Bills even their road record and get back on track behind Josh Allen, who is 4-1 as a starter against the Steelers.
Pick: Bills 29, Steelers 22
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m., CBS
Will the Raiders get a spark after firing offensive coordinator Chip Kelly? Las Vegas has averaged just 9.3 points per game in four straight road losses, and the Chargers are coming off a bye week after a 35-6 loss at Jacksonville. Los Angeles averages 23.8 points per game at home.
Pick: Chargers 24, Raiders 14
Denver Broncos (-6.5) at Washington Commanders
Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC Peacock
Both teams are streaking in very different directions. Denver has won eight straight with a defense that has piled up a league-high 49 sacks. That pass rush can create turnovers, and Washington has a minus-8 turnover margin in six straight losses.
Pick: Broncos 28, Commanders 17
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-7.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN
The Giants have covered as an underdog each of the last three weeks, and Jaxson Dart (concussion) could return this week. The Patriots are on a nine-game winning streak, but they are 0-2 ATS when favored by more than a TD. Drake Maye has taken just nine sacks in four November games – a vast improvement from the first two months.
Pick: Patriots 24, Giants 17