Five of the six teams playing on the NFL Thanksgiving triple-header are.500 or better, and the only losing team might get their quarterback back in Week 13.
This could be the most-memorable holiday in years. Green Bay (7-3-1) travels to Detroit (7-4) at 1 p.m. On Fox. The Packers and Lions are fighting to stay in second place – at least for a week – behind the Chicago Bears in the NFC North. All three teams are in the NFC playoff race, so this is a huge matchup for both sides.
Kansas City (6-5) takes on Dallas (5-5-1) at 4:30 p.m. ET. The Chiefs have not played on Thanksgiving since 2006, so this will be a debut of sorts for veteran quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Cowboys are coming off an incredible comeback against Philadelphia. Would this be the start of a playoff run?
Baltimore (6-5) and Cincinnati (3-8) play in the prime-time matchup at 8:20 p.m. ET. Lamar Jackson has the Ravens back on top in the AFC North. Joe Burrow – who has not played since Week 2 because of a toe injury – could be back for the Bengals.
Straight up: 116-61-1 (11-3 in Week 12)
Against the spread: 86-89-3 (4-9-1 in Week 12)
Here are our straight-up picks for Week 13. Odds according to Caesars.
NFL picks, predictions for Thanksgiving
- Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Thursday, 1 p.m., Fox
This is a pressure-cooked game for both sides. Green Bay beat Detroit 27-13 in Week 1 in Micah Parsons' debut. The Packers limited the Lions to 46 rushing yards and forced three turnovers in that victory, and Green Bay is 3-1-1 S/U on the road.
This is more about the Packers' offense. Will Matt LaFleur be as aggressive as he was the last time Green Bay played Detroit on Thanksgiving? Injuries to Tucker Kraft and Josh Jacobs have slowed down that offense, which has averaged 17.5 points the last four weeks. Jordan Love has a 91.8 passer rating for his career against the Lions.
Detroit has topped 200 rushing yards twice since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties. The Lions will not abandon the run at home, and this is an opportunity for Jahmyr Gibbs – who has 400 rushing yards on 9.5 yards per carry in that stretch – to shine. Detroit is 12-9-1 S/U all time against Green Bay on Thanksgiving in the most-frequent classic holiday matchup.
Pick: Lions 28, Packers 20
MORE: Updated NFL power rankings for Week 13
- Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, 4:30 p.m.., CBS/Paramount
This will be the most-watched game of the day. The Chiefs are 1-4 S/U on the road this year – and Patrick Mahomes has averaged 45.5 passing attempts the last two weeks. Kareem Hunt did top 100 yards in the wild overtime victory against the Colts, which got Kansas City back to 500.
Kansas City has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in five of their last six games, which means the Cowboys will have challenges, too. Dak Prescott has 40 or more passing attempts in three home games this year. Dallas would be comfortable in a shootout, and that is what this game could turn into if Mahomes and Prescott heat up.
Mahomes has never played on Thanksgiving with the Chiefs, and we expect him to take advantage of that spotlight against Dallas, which allows 252.3 passing yards per game. The Cowboys' run defense has been great the last two weeks, and that energy from last week's victory against Philadelphia should carry over. We're still picking Kansas City in what could be an instant classic.
Pick: Chiefs 30, Cowboys 24
MORE: NFL Thanksgiving picks against the spread
- Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock
Why is Burrow potentially coming back? Another loss would ensure a losing season for the Bengals, and Cincinnati did get hot at the end of last season. It makes for an entertaining return given the Ravens have allowed just 13.4 points per game through a five-game winning streak.
Burrow is 3-6 as a starter against the Ravens, but he has a 104.8 passer rating with 21 TDs and five interceptions in those games. It should not take long to re-establish a connection with Ja'Marr Chase, who returns from a one-game suspension and had 264 yards and three TDs at Baltimore last season.
The Ravens are grinding out victories, and Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry should stay on track against Cincinnati's defense, which ranks last in the NFL in yards allowed (415.8) and points allowed (32.7). Burrow's return would make this a better watch, but the Ravens keep their streak going. Baltimore has won the last four meetings in the series – but only one of those games was by more than seven points.
Pick: Ravens 27, Bengals 24